气候变化情景下喀拉拉邦Chaliyar盆地洪水淹没图的开发

IF 1.6 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Water Practice and Technology Pub Date : 2023-09-27 DOI:10.2166/wpt.2023.148
Nagireddy Venkata Jayasimha Reddy, R. Arunkumar
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引用次数: 0

摘要

洪水是严重影响民用基础设施和人民生计的极端事件和广泛的自然灾害之一。最近,气候变化显著改变了降雨模式,增加了世界范围内的洪水事件,尤其是在印度。因此,绘制未来各种极端事件的潜在洪水淹没区域地图,以制定适当的洪水缓解和管理战略变得至关重要。本研究旨在开发喀拉拉邦Chaliyar盆地在气候变化情景下不同回归期的洪水淹没图。采用水文工程中心-水文模拟系统模型模拟了SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5两种情景下的河流流量。随后,利用水文工程中心-河流分析系统模型,绘制了不同回归期的洪水淹没图。在近未来(2031-2040年)和远未来(2071-2080年),SSP5-8.5的模拟流量较高。然而,中期未来(2051-2060)导致SSP2-4.5情景的流量高于SSP5-8.5情景。在100年回归期事件中,Kizhupparamba的中期水面高度最大值为19.52 m,其次是chekode的近期水面高度最大值,SSP5-8.5为18.38 m。研究表明,水文和水工模型可以有效地结合起来进行洪水淹没区制图。
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Development of flood inundation maps for the Chaliyar Basin, Kerala under climate change scenarios
Abstract Floods are one of the extreme events and widespread natural disasters that significantly affect the civil infrastructure and livelihoods of people. Recently, climate change has significantly altered the rainfall pattern and increased flood events worldwide, especially in India. Therefore, it has become essential to map potential flood inundation regions for various future extreme events to develop appropriate flood mitigation and management strategies. This study aims to develop flood inundation maps for different return periods under climate change scenarios for the Chaliyar basin, Kerala. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modelling System model was used to simulate streamflow under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Later, flood inundation maps were developed for different return periods using the Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System model. It was observed that for the near future (2031–2040) and far future (2071–2080), simulated streamflow is higher for SSP5-8.5. However, the mid-future (2051–2060) resulted in a higher streamflow for SSP2-4.5 than the SSP5-8.5 scenario. A maximum of 19.52 m of water surface elevation occurred at Kizhupparamba during mid-future for SSP2-4.5, followed by 18.38 m of water surface elevation at Cheekode during the near future for SSP5-8.5, for 100-year return period events. This study showed that hydrologic and hydraulic models could be effectively combined for mapping the flood inundation areas.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
6.20%
发文量
136
审稿时长
14 weeks
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