投资组合选择算法,包括精确随机优势

IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI:10.1016/j.jfs.2023.101196
H.D. Vinod
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引用次数: 0

摘要

假设Nj股票(资产)收益的数据可用于p只股票,允许我们从p个经验累积分布函数(ecdf)构建(j= 1,2,…,p)的近似密度函数f(xj)。我们的投资组合选择旨在对ecdf诱导的、表现不佳的f(xj)密度进行排序,这些密度受多种模式、不对称肥尾、下降、转弯和众多重叠的影响。旧的投资组合理论假设,均值、方差和百分位数等参数充分描述了f(xj)。我们所有的六个算法都避免了(预期的)效用理论。安德森对k阶随机优势(SDk)的唯一可用算法需要一个梯形近似。我们新的SDk精确算法基于ecdf,克服了两两比较。我们包括使用bootstrap进行统计推断的算法,以及来自我们的R包“generalCorr”的“流行病证明”样本外投资组合性能比较的算法。我们建议对“零成本盈利套利”进行测试,并通过使用两组最近169个月的股票回报来说明我们的算法。我们并不主张建议新的最佳投资组合。
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Portfolio choice algorithms, including exact stochastic dominance

Assume data on Nj stock (asset) returns are available for p stocks, allowing us to construct approximate density functions f(xj) for (j=1, 2, …, p) from p empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDFs). Our portfolio choice is designed to rank ECDF-induced, ill-behaved f(xj) densities subject to multiple modes, asymmetric fat tails, dips, turns, and numerous overlaps. Older portfolio theory assumes that parameters like the mean, variance, and percentiles fully describe f(xj). All six of our algorithms avoid (expected) utility theory. The only available algorithm by Anderson for order-k Stochastic Dominance (SDk) needs a trapezoidal approximation. Our new exact algorithm for SDk is based on ECDFs and overcomes pairwise comparisons. We include algorithms for statistical inference using the bootstrap and one for “pandemic proof” out-of-sample portfolio performance comparisons from our R package ‘generalCorr’. We suggest a test for “zero cost profitable arbitrage” and illustrate our algorithms in action by using two sets of recent 169-month stock returns. We do not claim to suggest new optimal portfolios.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.70
自引率
9.30%
发文量
78
审稿时长
34 days
期刊介绍: The Journal of Financial Stability provides an international forum for rigorous theoretical and empirical macro and micro economic and financial analysis of the causes, management, resolution and preventions of financial crises, including banking, securities market, payments and currency crises. The primary focus is on applied research that would be useful in affecting public policy with respect to financial stability. Thus, the Journal seeks to promote interaction among researchers, policy-makers and practitioners to identify potential risks to financial stability and develop means for preventing, mitigating or managing these risks both within and across countries.
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