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Capital controls in China: A necessity for macroeconomic stability 中国的资本管制:宏观经济稳定的必要性
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101335
This paper investigates the crucial role of capital controls in maintaining macroeconomic stability in China. We develop an open macroeconomic model integrating capital controls within a managed floating exchange rate system. Our model shows that capital controls enhance the effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions by restricting capital outflows and providing a broader array of policy options, though they may also create discrepancies between domestic and foreign asset holdings. Simulations using quarterly time-series data reveal that capital controls are essential for the success of both sterilized and non-sterilized interventions. These results indicate that the combined use of capital controls and foreign exchange interventions can reduce macroeconomic volatility in China. Moreover, our analysis of fixed versus floating exchange rate regimes suggests that an inappropriate regime choice can increase volatility in capital flows. Therefore, China should adopt a balanced financial approach within its managed floating system to stabilize the macroeconomy.
本文探讨了资本管制在维护中国宏观经济稳定方面的关键作用。我们建立了一个开放的宏观经济模型,将资本管制纳入有管理的浮动汇率体系。我们的模型表明,资本管制通过限制资本外流和提供更广泛的政策选择,提高了外汇干预的有效性,尽管资本管制也可能造成国内外资产持有量的差异。利用季度时间序列数据进行的模拟显示,资本管制对消毒干预和非消毒干预的成功都至关重要。这些结果表明,结合使用资本管制和外汇干预措施可以降低中国宏观经济的波动性。此外,我们对固定汇率和浮动汇率制度的分析表明,制度选择不当会增加资本流动的波动性。因此,中国应在有管理的浮动汇率制度内采用平衡的金融方法来稳定宏观经济。
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引用次数: 0
Independent directors’ connectedness and bank risk-taking 独立董事的关联性与银行风险承担
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101324

This study examines the role of independent directors’ network centrality in bank risk-taking. Following the shareholder-incentive hypothesis and social-network theory, we predict and find that independent directors’ connectedness is positively associated with bank risk-taking. The results hold after a battery of robustness checks and endogeneity tests. Furthermore, consistent with the influence channel of networks, we show that connectedness empowers independent directors, whereas influential independent directors facilitate aggressive investment. We also find that the risk-taking effects are more pronounced for complex banks and banks with higher equity capital, higher income diversity, and lower cost-efficiency.

本研究探讨了独立董事的网络中心性在银行风险承担中的作用。根据股东激励假说和社会网络理论,我们预测并发现独立董事的人脉关系与银行风险承担正相关。经过一系列稳健性检验和内生性检验后,结果成立。此外,与网络的影响渠道一致,我们表明,关联性增强了独立董事的能力,而有影响力的独立董事促进了激进投资。我们还发现,风险承担效应对于复杂银行和股权资本较高、收入多元化程度较高以及成本效率较低的银行更为明显。
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引用次数: 0
Bank runs and media freedom: What you don’t know won’t hurt you? 银行挤兑与媒体自由:你不知道的事不会伤害你?
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101323

This paper examines the influence of media freedom restrictions on retail depositor behavior during banking crises. Non-professional, retail depositors are particularly affected due to insufficient access to vital information about the banking industry's vulnerability and broad macroeconomic conditions amidst the crisis. Using data from 85 countries from 2004 to 2019, we found that during crises, higher media restrictions lead to an increase in the rate of household deposit withdrawals. If media restrictions hinder depositors from accurately assessing the banking sector’s exposure, there is a higher likelihood of panic-based response in uncertain times brought on by the banking crisis, potentially triggering bank runs. Furthermore, our results reveal that lower banking sector risk can mitigate the negative effect of media restrictions on retail deposit growth during a banking crisis, especially in middle-income OECD and non-OECD countries, countries with stronger institutional environments, and countries with higher financial literacy. As a policy suggestion, promoting financial literacy could help reduce information asymmetry and prevent panic withdrawals, even in environments with significant media restrictions.

本文探讨了银行危机期间媒体自由限制对零售储户行为的影响。非专业的零售储户由于无法充分获取有关危机中银行业脆弱性和宏观经济状况的重要信息,因此受到的影响尤为严重。利用 2004 年至 2019 年 85 个国家的数据,我们发现在危机期间,较高的媒体限制会导致家庭存款提取率上升。如果媒体限制阻碍了储户准确评估银行业的风险敞口,那么在银行业危机带来的不确定时期,储户就更有可能做出恐慌性反应,从而可能引发银行挤兑。此外,我们的研究结果表明,在银行业危机期间,较低的银行业风险可以减轻媒体限制对零售存款增长的负面影响,尤其是在中等收入的经合组织和非经合组织国家、制度环境较强的国家以及金融知识较高的国家。作为一项政策建议,促进金融知识普及有助于减少信息不对称,防止恐慌性撤资,即使是在有重大媒体限制的环境中也是如此。
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引用次数: 0
The dynamic effects of debtor bankruptcy on unsecured creditors' stock liquidity 债务人破产对无担保债权人股票流动性的动态影响
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101322

This paper explores the dynamic effects of counterparty risk on stock liquidity using data on unsecured creditors after a debtor has declared bankruptcy. Through matched pair fixed effect panel regressions, we find that liquidity for unsecured creditors reduces after such declarations but only in the short term. This is evidenced by increases in various spread measures and Kyle's (1985) lambda and decreases in the bid depth differentials between the stocks of the unsecured creditors and the matched firms. Additionally, we find the greater the credit exposure, the greater the decline in liquidity. In the long term, debtor bankruptcies appear to have no effect on spread measures. Rather, the market depth for unsecured creditor stocks improves.

本文利用债务人宣布破产后无担保债权人的数据,探讨了交易对手风险对股票流动性的动态影响。通过配对固定效应面板回归,我们发现无担保债权人的流动性在债务人宣布破产后会降低,但只是在短期内。这表现在各种利差指标和 Kyle's (1985) lambda 值的增加,以及无担保债权人和匹配公司股票之间出价深度差的减少。此外,我们还发现信贷风险越大,流动性的下降幅度也越大。从长期来看,债务人破产似乎对价差指标没有影响。相反,无担保债权人股票的市场深度有所提高。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of collateral on small business rationing of term loans and lines of credit 抵押品对小企业定期贷款和信贷额度配给的影响
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101320

Theories of loan contracting in the presence of asymmetric information highlight the key role of collateral in mitigating against credit rationing. However, theory also allows for the use of collateral by ‘bad’ borrowers in order to receive better loan contract offers. In this study, we explore the extent to which collateral can affect the incidence of absolute loan denial and partial rationing associated with smaller loans than requested being offered. Using data from a large survey of UK small- and-medium enterprises, we find significant evidence on the negative effect of collateral. Our results also reveal important distinction between lines of credit and term loans, where the presence of collateral is associated with 3 % less term loan approved compared to overdraft. We argue that even the request (or offer) of collateral for a term loan indicates that either the bank or the firm believes it is a risky bet.

信息不对称情况下的贷款契约理论强调了抵押品在减少信贷配给方面的关键作用。然而,理论也允许 "不良 "借款人使用抵押品以获得更好的贷款合同报价。在本研究中,我们探讨了抵押品在多大程度上会影响绝对拒绝贷款的发生率,以及与提供的贷款额度低于申请额度相关的部分配给。通过对英国中小企业的大规模调查数据,我们发现了抵押品负面影响的重要证据。我们的研究结果还揭示了信贷额度和定期贷款之间的重要区别,与透支相比,有抵押品的定期贷款获批率要低 3%。我们认为,即使是要求(或提供)定期贷款抵押品,也表明银行或企业认为这是一个有风险的赌注。
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引用次数: 0
Automatic versus manual investing: Role of past performance 自动投资与手动投资:过往业绩的作用
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101319

Using unique data from a leading peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platform, we investigate the link between past investment performance and choice of auto-investing tool. Our results suggest that investors who experience fewer defaults in the manual mode are more inclined to switch to automatic investment. Several factors account for this relationship, including investor inattention, decision speed, investment delegation, and experience. Regarding the latter, our results suggest that experienced investors are more likely to continue self-directed bidding, even if they have faced defaults in manual investments in the past. These investors may attribute their previous mistakes to their own actions rather than the limitations of the self-directed bids. Our results are robust to alternative specifications.

我们利用领先的点对点(P2P)借贷平台的独特数据,研究了过往投资业绩与自动投资工具选择之间的联系。我们的研究结果表明,在手动模式下违约次数较少的投资者更倾向于转为自动投资。造成这种关系的因素有几个,包括投资者注意力不集中、决策速度、投资委托和经验。关于后者,我们的结果表明,经验丰富的投资者更有可能继续自主投标,即使他们过去在手动投资中遇到过违约。这些投资者可能会将之前的失误归咎于自己的行为,而不是自主投标的局限性。我们的结果对其他规格都是稳健的。
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引用次数: 0
Employee lawsuits and business downsizing: Evidence from labor unions 员工诉讼与企业裁员:来自工会的证据
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101318

In this paper, we examine how employee lawsuits are related to firms’ business decisions. By using union-filed lawsuit data, we document that litigation increases the likelihood of firms downsizing their businesses. Furthermore, cases filed by unions lead to an increase in both the number of store closures and the number of employees affected by these closures. We demonstrate that violations related to labor have a significant negative impact on operating performance. Our findings reveal the fact that the cost of labor, damage to reputation, legal liabilities, and diverted resources resulting from litigation damages firms’ new business opportunities. Overall, our results highlight the importance of employee treatment at the workplace, which affects corporate decisions.

在本文中,我们研究了员工诉讼与企业经营决策之间的关系。通过使用工会提起的诉讼数据,我们发现诉讼会增加企业缩减业务的可能性。此外,工会提起的诉讼会导致商店关闭数量和受影响员工数量的增加。我们的研究表明,与劳动相关的违法行为对经营业绩有显著的负面影响。我们的研究结果揭示了这样一个事实,即诉讼导致的劳动力成本、声誉受损、法律责任和资源转移会损害企业的新业务机会。总之,我们的研究结果凸显了员工在工作场所的待遇对企业决策的重要影响。
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引用次数: 0
Does being a responsible bank pay off? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic 做一家负责任的银行有回报吗?来自 COVID-19 大流行病的证据
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101317

We investigate whether banks’ initial responses during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in supporting their customers, communities, and governments were perceived as value-enhancing by investors. Using a unique responsible banking measure for a sample of the largest US and European commercial banks, we find a negative relationship between responsible bank behavior and stock market performance, particularly in the first wave of the pandemic. We also find that riskier banks were affected more negatively if they behaved responsibly. Overall, our findings show that banks’ responsible behavior during a crisis reduces, or at best is not relevant to, shareholder value.

我们研究了在 COVID-19 大流行的第一波中,银行在支持客户、社区和政府方面的最初反应是否被投资者视为价值提升。通过对美国和欧洲最大的商业银行样本进行独特的责任银行衡量,我们发现责任银行行为与股市表现之间存在负相关关系,尤其是在大流行病的第一波。我们还发现,风险较高的银行如果采取负责任的行为,则受到的负面影响更大。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,银行在危机期间的负责任行为会降低股东价值,或者充其量与股东价值无关。
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引用次数: 0
Policy rules and forward guidance following the Covid-19 recession 科维德-19 经济衰退后的政策规则和前瞻性指导
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101321

In August 2020, the Federal Open Market Committee adopted a far-reaching Revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. The framework contains two major changes from the original 2012 statement. First, policy decisions will attempt to mitigate shortfalls, rather than deviations, of employment from its maximum level. Second, the FOMC will implement Flexible Average Inflation Targeting. We show how to modify the rules in the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report to be consistent with the revised statement, how the pattern of falling behind the curve, pivot, and getting back on track in Fed policy during 2021 and 2022 could have been avoided by following inertial rules consistent with either the original or the revised statements, and how current and projected Fed policy for 2023 – 2026 is in accord with the prescriptions from inertial rules.

2020 年 8 月,联邦公开市场委员会通过了影响深远的《关于长期目标和货币政策战略的修订声明》。与 2012 年的最初声明相比,该框架包含两大变化。首先,政策决定将试图缓解就业率从最高水平下降,而不是从最低水平下降。其次,FOMC 将实施灵活的平均通胀目标制。我们展示了如何修改美联储货币政策报告中的规则以与修订后的声明保持一致,2021 年和 2022 年期间美联储政策落后于曲线、转向中枢和重回正轨的模式是如何通过遵循与最初声明或修订后声明一致的惯性规则而得以避免的,以及当前和预测的 2023 - 2026 年美联储政策是如何与惯性规则的规定保持一致的。
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引用次数: 0
Lobbying and liquidity requirements: Large versus small banks 游说和流动性要求:大型银行与小型银行
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101316

We design a model with banks of unequal size operating subject to liquidity requirements in an imperfectly-competitive deposit market. We show that large banks have stronger incentives than small ones to lobby in order to relax the liquidity requirements unless they bear significantly higher lobbying costs. Therefore, lobbying magnifies asymmetries between banks. Furthermore, we establish that the organization of influence activities matters. An industry-wide bank association for lobbying to relax the liquidity requirements suffers from an internal conflict of interest and cannot simultaneously benefit both large and small banks if these have identical lobbying cost functions.

我们设计了一个模型,在这个模型中,规模不等的银行在不完全竞争的存款市场上经营,并受流动性要求的约束。我们的研究表明,大型银行比小型银行有更强的动机进行游说,以放宽流动性要求,除非它们承担的游说成本要高得多。因此,游说会放大银行间的不对称。此外,我们还发现影响活动的组织形式也很重要。如果大型银行和小型银行具有相同的游说成本函数,那么为放宽流动性要求而进行游说的全行业银行协会就会产生内部利益冲突,无法同时使大型银行和小型银行受益。
{"title":"Lobbying and liquidity requirements: Large versus small banks","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101316","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101316","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We design a model with banks of unequal size operating subject to liquidity requirements in an imperfectly-competitive deposit market. We show that large banks have stronger incentives than small ones to lobby in order to relax the liquidity requirements unless they bear significantly higher lobbying costs. Therefore, lobbying magnifies asymmetries between banks. Furthermore, we establish that the organization of influence activities matters. An industry-wide bank association for lobbying to relax the liquidity requirements suffers from an internal conflict of interest and cannot simultaneously benefit both large and small banks if these have identical lobbying cost functions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141978213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Financial Stability
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