“Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic”: Genesis of Issue and Influence on the International Relations

An important and urgent issue in the context of ensuring European and international security is the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict. Despite the considerable number of works on the Transnistrian issue, they are mainly devoted to the history and features of the conflict development. At the same time, problem of the present state of the territory and future forecasts are not explored properly. Therefore, the article aims to determine the historical background and stages of the conflict, to characterize the current state of the separatist region and to provide forecasts for the future situation. Methods used for the research include: content analysis, statistical, historical-genetic and the analytic-prognostic methods. The article analyzes the basic historical prerequisites and causes of the Transnistrian conflict, which are divided into four blocks: historical, ethno-national, economic and geopolitical. The stages of conflict confrontation and the negotiation process in 5+2 format, the positions of the participating countries are explored. The process of conflict peaceful settlement began after the end of the armed confrontation phase in 1992. It is characterized by considerable activity of external actors, but has not led to significant consequences. A description of the current state of the so-called “Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic” is given. Particularly noteworthy is the ever-growing role of the Russian Federation, which traditionally views the territory as an area of its imperial national interests and uses this “frozen conflict” as a lever of influence over the pro-European Republic of Moldova. The main scenarios are highlighted: reintegration into the mother country; inclusion territory of the “de facto state” into patron state; achieving international recognition of sovereignty; maintaining the status quo. It is concluded that federalization is the most possible forecast for the Transnistrian conflict, because Moldova already has similar experience in Gagauzia. But at the present stage we are observing the status quo.