一场重大灾难的漫长阴影:假想的HayWired地震对加州经济的模拟动态影响

IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES International Regional Science Review Pub Date : 2023-10-04 DOI:10.1177/01600176231202451
Ian Sue Wing, Adam Rose, Dan Wei, Anne Wein
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们开发并应用了一个动态经济模拟模型来分析一场重大灾难的多区域影响和恢复机制,即HayWired情景——一场影响加州旧金山湾区的7.0级地震。该模型整合了损失路径:资本存量损失、短期人口迁移和受损地区长期外迁造成的劳动力供给冲击、交通基础设施资本受损的加剧效应,以及静态和动态经济弹性的各个方面。考虑到以投入替代为基础的静态固有弹性和以最佳跨期和空间投资分配为形式的动态弹性,各地区的总产出损失在0.5%至6%之间,全州的福利损失为0.4%,但在受灾最严重的地区,这一损失可能高达10倍。大规模的重建投资得到了通过国家内部贸易进行的大量区域间资源转移的支持。通过企业参与生产恢复的关键适应性恢复策略来增加产量可以减轻很大一部分损失,但前提是上游和下游的恢复障碍能够迅速降低。
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The Long Shadow of a Major Disaster: Modeled Dynamic Impacts of the Hypothetical HayWired Earthquake on California’s Economy
We develop and apply a dynamic economic simulation model to analyze the multi-regional impacts of, and mechanisms of recovery from, a major disaster, the HayWired scenario — a hypothetical Magnitude 7.0 earthquake affecting California’s San Francisco Bay Area. The model integrates loss pathways: capital stock damage, labor supply shocks due to short-term population displacement and longer-run out-migration from damaged areas, and the exacerbating effects of damage to transportation infrastructure capital, as well as various aspects of static and dynamic economic resilience. With input substitution-based static inherent resilience and dynamic resilience in the form of optimal intertemporal and spatial investment allocation, gross output losses range from 0.5 percent to 6 percent across regions, and welfare losses are 0.4 percent statewide but can be ten times as large in hardest-hit areas. Large-scale reconstruction investment is supported by substantial interregional transfers of resources through intra-state trade. Increased output via firms engaging in the key adaptive resilience tactic of production recapture can alleviate a substantial fraction of losses—but only if upstream and downstream barriers to recovery can be lowered quickly.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
13.00%
发文量
26
期刊介绍: International Regional Science Review serves as an international forum for economists, geographers, planners, and other social scientists to share important research findings and methodological breakthroughs. The journal serves as a catalyst for improving spatial and regional analysis within the social sciences and stimulating communication among the disciplines. IRSR deliberately helps define regional science by publishing key interdisciplinary survey articles that summarize and evaluate previous research and identify fruitful research directions. Focusing on issues of theory, method, and public policy where the spatial or regional dimension is central, IRSR strives to promote useful scholarly research that is securely tied to the real world.
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