投票反对独裁

IF 4.5 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS World Politics Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI:10.1353/wp.2023.a908772
Milan W. Svolik
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引用次数: 2

摘要

选民何时以及如何惩罚颠覆民主的政客?为了调查公众在民主倒退中的作用,我开发了一个概念框架,区分了三种机制:投票转换、反弹和脱离参与。第一种机制导致选民从破坏民主的候选人转向不破坏民主的候选人;后两种机制需要在投票和弃权之间进行转换。我通过结合来自一系列原始调查实验、传统调查和2019年伊斯坦布尔市长选举重新进行的准实验的证据来估计每种机制的重要性。在这次选举中,执政党正义与发展党(akp)试图推翻自己输掉的选举结果。我发现,虽然选票转换和反弹对正义与发展党最终的失败贡献最大,但这三种机制中的每一种都在伊斯坦布尔选民的某些子集中起到了民主制衡的作用。说服、动员、甚至遣散都是遏制民选政客独裁倾向的可行工具。
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Voting Against Autocracy
abstract: When and how do voters punish politicians for subverting democracy? To investigate the role of the public in democratic backsliding, I develop a conceptual framework that differentiates among three mechanisms: vote switching, backlash, and disengagement. The first mechanism entails defection by voters from a candidate who undermines democracy to one who does not; the latter two mechanisms entail transitions between voting and abstention. I estimate the magnitude of each mechanism by combining evidence from a series of original survey experiments, traditional surveys, and a quasi-experiment afforded by the rerun of the 2019 Istanbul mayoral election, in which the governing party, akp, attempted to overturn the result of an election that it had lost. I find that although vote switching and backlash contributed to the akp's eventual defeat the most, each of the three mechanisms served as a democratic check in some subset of the Istanbul electorate. Persuasion, mobilization, and even demobilization are all viable tools for curbing the authoritarian tendencies of elected politicians.
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来源期刊
World Politics
World Politics Multiple-
CiteScore
8.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: World Politics, founded in 1948, is an internationally renowned quarterly journal of political science published in both print and online versions. Open to contributions by scholars, World Politics invites submission of research articles that make theoretical and empirical contributions to the literature, review articles, and research notes bearing on problems in international relations and comparative politics. The journal does not publish articles on current affairs, policy pieces, or narratives of a journalistic nature. Articles submitted for consideration are unsolicited, except for review articles, which are usually commissioned. Published for the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Affairs
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