浮动、闭式循环海洋热能转换的全球技术经济潜力

Jannis Langer, Kornelis Blok
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摘要

摘要海洋热能转换(OTEC)是一种利用海洋热能发电的新兴可再生能源技术。鉴于其早期发展阶段,OTEC的经济状况仍不确定,尚未对其经济潜力进行全球评估。在这里,我们提出了pyOTEC模型,该模型考虑了海洋热能资源的时空特异性可用性和季节性,设计了最佳经济性能的OTEC工厂。我们将pyOTEC应用于100多个技术上可行的地区,以获得OTEC全球技术和经济潜力的数量级估计。我们发现OTEC的全球技术潜力为107 PWh/年,可以满足2019年电力需求的11 PWh。在总发电量≥120兆瓦的情况下,在包括中国、巴西和印度尼西亚在内的15个地区,有LCOE低于15美分(2021)/千瓦时的OTEC工厂。然而,在中短期内,小岛屿发展中国家是OTEC最相关的利基。总发电量在10兆瓦以下的系统可以完全和经济有效地替代岛屿上的柴油发电机,在这些岛屿上,其他可再生能源更具挑战性。通过全球分析,我们还证实了大多数OTEC工厂如果在最坏的表面和深海水温下设计,则可以获得最佳的经济性能,我们进一步通过敏感性分析来支持这一点。我们列出了pyOTEC的局限性和发展领域,以扩展和完善我们的发现。每个地区的模型和关键数据都可以在网上公开访问。
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The global techno-economic potential of floating, closed-cycle ocean thermal energy conversion
Abstract Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) is an emerging renewable energy technology using the ocean’s heat to produce electricity. Given its early development stage, OTEC’s economics are still uncertain and there is no global assessment of its economic potential, yet. Here, we present the model pyOTEC that designs OTEC plants for best economic performance considering the spatiotemporally specific availability and seasonality of ocean thermal energy resources. We apply pyOTEC to more than 100 regions with technically feasible sites to obtain an order-of-magnitude estimation of OTEC’s global technical and economic potential. We find that OTEC’s global technical potential of 107 PWh/year could cover 11 PWh of 2019 electricity demand. At ≥ 120 MW gross , there are OTEC plants with Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) below 15 US¢(2021)/kWh in 15 regions, including China, Brazil, and Indonesia. In the short-to-medium term, however, small island developing states are OTEC’s most relevant niche. Systems below 10 MW gross could fully and cost-effectively substitute Diesel generators on islands where that is more challenging with other renewables. With the global analysis, we also corroborate that most OTEC plants return the best economic performance if designed for worst-case surface and deep-sea water temperatures, which we further back up with a sensitivity analysis. We lay out pyOTEC’s limitations and fields for development to expand and refine our findings. The model as well as key data per region are publically accessible online.
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来源期刊
Journal of Ocean Engineering and Marine Energy
Journal of Ocean Engineering and Marine Energy Engineering-Ocean Engineering
CiteScore
3.80
自引率
5.30%
发文量
47
期刊介绍: The Journal of Ocean Engineering and Marine Energy publishes original articles on research and development spanning all areas of ocean engineering and marine energy. The journal is designed to advance scientific knowledge and to foster innovative engineering solutions in the following main fields: coastal engineering, offshore engineering, marine renewable energy, and climate change and the resulting sea-level rise. Topics include, but are not limited to: Offshore wind energy technologyWave and tidal energyOcean thermal energy conversionOceanographical engineeringStructural mechanicsHydrodynamicsLinear and nonlinear wave mechanicsNumerical analysisMarine miningPipelines and risersComputational fluid dynamicsVortex-induced vibrationsArctic engineeringFluid-structure interactionUnderwater technologyFoundation engineeringAquacultural engineeringInstrumentation, full-scale measurements and ocean observational systemsModel testsHydroelasticityOcean acousticsGlobal warming and sea level riseOcean space utilizationWater qualityCoastal engineeringPhysical oceanographyThe journal also welcomes occasional review articles by leading authorities as well as original works on other emerging and interdisciplinary areas encompassing engineering in the ocean environment.
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