Assessing the carbon offsetting potential of China’s forest sector: reflection and outlook

There have been assessments of the carbon (C) offsetting potential of China’s forest sector using historical inventories and future projections. Here, we critically reflect on the assessments we have done and carefully synthesize our findings of China’s C sequestration by forest ecosystems and storage by harvested wood products (HWPs). We show that China raised its forest stock volume by 5.069 × 109 m3 during 2006–2020, giving a biomass C uptake of 2.592 petagrams (Pg). With a cumulative C emission of 37.031 Pg during the same period of time, the offsetting ratio of forest biomass is 6.99%. If C stored in HWPs during the period (0.491 Pg) is included, that ratio rises to 8.33%; further counting C sequestered by forest soil (1.277 Pg) boosts the ratio to 11.76%. With a stock volume increase of 14.813 × 109 m3 from 2006 to 2060, projected under a conventional scenario, the forest sector C removal could reach 9.286 Pg without including soil C or 13.017 Pg otherwise, offsetting 10.50% or 14.72% of the cumulative emission of 88.425 Pg. These results indicate that the forest sector has played and will continue to play a significant a role in its decarbonizing drive, but the government has been conservative in setting its targets, particularly for the increase of forest stock volume. Future policy and research efforts must effectively link the country’s forest structure, quality, and growth, and thus C sequestration and storage, with improved forest management and wood products manufacturing.