Populism and administrative dysfunction: The impact of U. S. government shutdowns on personnel and policy implementation

We examine the implications of anti-statist populist leaders' inattention to competence and service delivery, and their embrace of a particular form of dysfunctional politics: government shutdowns. This paper explores the effects of US government shutdowns on agency policy implementation and personnel and using survey data from several hundred thousand federal employees. The first study gauges the effect of the 2018–2019 shutdown on specific elements of agency policy implementation. The results suggest that shutdowns, as a type of shock associated with anti-statist politics, undermine the quality of government in the eyes of those closest to the work. The second and third studies consider the effect of shutdowns on employee morale, using the 2013, and 2018–2019 shutdown. While our findings indicate that the 2013 shutdown wrought durable negative impacts on the morale of shutdown agency personnel, that event appears to have prepared agencies to absorb any negative morale impacts in the 2018–2019 shutdown. Our study shows both the immediate and long-term dynamics of government shutdowns on policy implementation and the administrative workforce.