主要新兴市场经济体的劳动力市场扭曲:一些CGE估计

Pablo R. Liboreiro
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摘要

目的:本研究估计了劳动力市场扭曲对七个新兴市场国家经济结构和效率的影响:巴西、中国、印度尼西亚、印度、墨西哥、俄罗斯和土耳其。方法:估算基于可计算均衡(CGE)模型,该模型允许从世界投入产出数据库(2016年发布)收集的2000-2014年期间的数据中模拟56个行业和代表世界其他地区的行业间联系。研究结果-研究结果表明,工资差异似乎具有扭曲性,特别是在工资收入不平等程度高的国家。此外,新兴市场国家的劳动力市场扭曲似乎受到城乡二元对立和城市劳动力市场不完善的影响。最后,研究结果表明,工资差异的消除影响了贸易条件,在大多数情况下,贸易条件得到了改善,但不是全部。含义-本研究的结论具有政策含义。在城乡二元对立是劳动力市场主要扭曲的国家,提高城市化水平可以刺激效率;如果情况并非如此,就需要进一步改革城市劳动力市场。但是,也不能排除以提高劳动流动性为目的的政策对贸易条件产生负面影响的可能性。原创性-本研究中使用的估计方法比文献中发现的其他方法有一定的进步,因为它可以在考虑不同部门之间的相互依赖性的同时估计劳动力市场扭曲的影响,并合理地估计对贸易的影响。本研究还使用了大量的数据,有望增加研究结论的稳健性。
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Labor market distortions in major emerging-market economies: Some CGE estimates
Purpose ― In the present study, the effects of labor market distortions on economic structure and efficiency are estimated for seven emerging-market countries: Brazil, China, Indonesia, India, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey. Methods ― The estimates are based on a computable equilibrium (CGE) model that allows simulation of the inter-industry links of 56 industries plus a sector representing the rest of the world from data collected in the World Input-Output Database (Release 2016) for the period 2000-2014. Findings ― The results show that wage differentials appear to be distortionary, especially in the cases of countries with high wage-income inequality. Moreover, it seems that labor market distortions in emerging-market countries are subject to the rural-urban dichotomy and urban labor-market imperfections. Finally, the results show that the removal of wage differentials affects the terms of trade, which are improved in most but not all cases.Implication ― The conclusions of the present study have policy implications. In countries where the rural-urban dichotomy is the main distortion in labor markets, increasing urbanization can stimulate efficiency; when this is not the case, further reform of urban labor markets is needed. However, it cannot be ruled out in advance that a policy aimed at enhancing labor mobility may have a negative impact on the terms of trade. Originality ― The estimation method used in the present study presents certain advances over others found in the literature, as it becomes possible to estimate the effects of labor-market distortions while considering the interdependencies between different sectors, as well as to plausibly estimate the effects on trade. The present study also uses a large quantity of data, which is expected to add robustness to the study’s conclusion.
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20.00%
发文量
21
审稿时长
12 weeks
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