Purpose ― This study aims to investigate the impact of FDI inflows on Trade in Azerbaijan from 1993 to 2021. Method ― This study uses the datasets from the World Bank Database. It employs the Augmented Dickey and Fuller (ADF), Phillips and Perron (PP), Zivot and Andrews (ZA), ARDL bounds testing approach, and the Granger Causality tests for the empirical part of the study.Findings ― The bound test shows the presence of cointegration between FDI and Export. The estimated long-run equation suggests a positive and significant relationship, whereas the estimated short-run equation indicates a positive but insignificant relationship between FDI and export. Additionally, the results of Granger causality test show a unidirectional causality running from FDI to export. Implications ― Since the FDI inflows show a positive effect on the export of Azerbaijan, most foreign investments come into the oil and gas sector. Accordingly, oil and gas products and services account for a significant share of exports in Azerbaijan. Policymakers might need new regulations to attract more attention from foreign investors to non-oil sectors.Originality/value ― There were vast studies about FDI and trade relationships in different countries with different techniques. This study is unique because it employs a new methodology and the latest dataset in which Azerbaijan was a focused area for the first time.
目的-本研究旨在调查1993年至2021年外国直接投资流入对阿塞拜疆贸易的影响。方法:本研究使用来自世界银行数据库的数据集。实证部分采用了Augmented Dickey and Fuller (ADF)、Phillips and Perron (PP)、Zivot and Andrews (ZA)、ARDL界检验方法和Granger因果检验。研究结果-约束检验显示FDI与出口之间存在协整关系。估计的长期方程表明FDI与出口之间存在积极且显著的关系，而估计的短期方程表明FDI与出口之间存在积极但不显著的关系。格兰杰因果检验结果表明，FDI与出口之间存在单向因果关系。影响-由于外国直接投资流入对阿塞拜疆的出口产生积极影响，大多数外国投资进入石油和天然气部门。因此，石油和天然气产品和服务占阿塞拜疆出口的很大份额。决策者可能需要制定新的法规，以吸引外国投资者更多地关注非石油行业。原创性/价值——有大量关于不同国家采用不同技术的外国直接投资和贸易关系的研究。这项研究是独一无二的，因为它采用了一种新的方法和最新的数据集，其中阿塞拜疆首次成为重点领域。
{"title":"The role of the Foreign Direct Investment inflows on export in Azerbaijan: An ARDL approach","authors":"Maharram Huseynov Calal, Karimov Mehman Ilham, Nesirov Elcin Vaqif, Zeynalli Elay Calal, Tahirova Gulchin Mardan","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art4","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ― This study aims to investigate the impact of FDI inflows on Trade in Azerbaijan from 1993 to 2021. Method ― This study uses the datasets from the World Bank Database. It employs the Augmented Dickey and Fuller (ADF), Phillips and Perron (PP), Zivot and Andrews (ZA), ARDL bounds testing approach, and the Granger Causality tests for the empirical part of the study.Findings ― The bound test shows the presence of cointegration between FDI and Export. The estimated long-run equation suggests a positive and significant relationship, whereas the estimated short-run equation indicates a positive but insignificant relationship between FDI and export. Additionally, the results of Granger causality test show a unidirectional causality running from FDI to export. Implications ― Since the FDI inflows show a positive effect on the export of Azerbaijan, most foreign investments come into the oil and gas sector. Accordingly, oil and gas products and services account for a significant share of exports in Azerbaijan. Policymakers might need new regulations to attract more attention from foreign investors to non-oil sectors.Originality/value ― There were vast studies about FDI and trade relationships in different countries with different techniques. This study is unique because it employs a new methodology and the latest dataset in which Azerbaijan was a focused area for the first time.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"441 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135326349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art7
Zulkefly Abdul Karim, Nurul Aqilah Mohd Nuruddin, Bakri Abdul Karim, Massita Mohamad, Ismahalil Ishak
Purpose ― This study aims to examine the impact of population aging and fertility rates on economic growth in Malaysia for the sample spanning from 1961 to 2020.Method ― The study uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model to examine the relationship between economic growth, the aging population, fertility rate, capital stock, and employment rate.Findings ― The main results provide evidence of a long-run relationship between aging, fertility rate, employment, and capital stock on Malaysian economic growth. The results also show that the aging population harms economic growth in the long run, but a decline in the fertility rate has been favorable to long-term economic growth.Implication ― These findings have significant implications for the execution and formulation of national aging and demographic policies and government efforts to achieve long-term fiscal sustainability.Originality ― This study empirically investigated the link between population aging and economic development, reflecting recent demographic trends in Malaysia. This study uses current data and an Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) technique to analyze long-term economic growth and its association with supply-side determinants
{"title":"The impact of population aging and fertility rate on economic growth in Malaysia","authors":"Zulkefly Abdul Karim, Nurul Aqilah Mohd Nuruddin, Bakri Abdul Karim, Massita Mohamad, Ismahalil Ishak","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art7","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ― This study aims to examine the impact of population aging and fertility rates on economic growth in Malaysia for the sample spanning from 1961 to 2020.Method ― The study uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model to examine the relationship between economic growth, the aging population, fertility rate, capital stock, and employment rate.Findings ― The main results provide evidence of a long-run relationship between aging, fertility rate, employment, and capital stock on Malaysian economic growth. The results also show that the aging population harms economic growth in the long run, but a decline in the fertility rate has been favorable to long-term economic growth.Implication ― These findings have significant implications for the execution and formulation of national aging and demographic policies and government efforts to achieve long-term fiscal sustainability.Originality ― This study empirically investigated the link between population aging and economic development, reflecting recent demographic trends in Malaysia. This study uses current data and an Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) technique to analyze long-term economic growth and its association with supply-side determinants","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"22 3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135931289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art5
Mustafa Bilik
Purpose: The purpose of this study is to add to the current poverty dynamics literature by investigating the underlying causes of poverty persistence in Turkey, with an emphasis on both entry and exit rates.
Methods: The study analyzes data from the Turkish Statistical Institute's "Survey on Income and Living Conditions" from 2018 to 2021 using dynamic probit models. This large dataset, which gives a detailed picture of socioeconomic situations, helps in properly understanding the complex aspects influencing poverty rates.
Findings: The analysis reveals significant poverty persistence in Turkey, influenced by factors such as gender, marital status, employment, and health conditions. According to the research, these variables frequently interact, forming a complex structure that maintains poverty throughout the country.
Implications: The findings necessitate targeted interventions to address persistent poverty, considering the diverse influencing factors. This could lead to a reduction in poverty rates and improved socioeconomic conditions for individuals.
Originality/Value: This study offers a unique perspective on poverty dynamics in Turkey, focusing on both entry and exit rates. It provides valuable insights for those formulating policies or strategies aimed at poverty reduction, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach to poverty alleviation.
{"title":"Examining entry and exit rates of poverty in Turkey: A dynamic probit regression analysis","authors":"Mustafa Bilik","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art5","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: The purpose of this study is to add to the current poverty dynamics literature by investigating the underlying causes of poverty persistence in Turkey, with an emphasis on both entry and exit rates.
 Methods: The study analyzes data from the Turkish Statistical Institute's \"Survey on Income and Living Conditions\" from 2018 to 2021 using dynamic probit models. This large dataset, which gives a detailed picture of socioeconomic situations, helps in properly understanding the complex aspects influencing poverty rates.
 Findings: The analysis reveals significant poverty persistence in Turkey, influenced by factors such as gender, marital status, employment, and health conditions. According to the research, these variables frequently interact, forming a complex structure that maintains poverty throughout the country.
 Implications: The findings necessitate targeted interventions to address persistent poverty, considering the diverse influencing factors. This could lead to a reduction in poverty rates and improved socioeconomic conditions for individuals.
 Originality/Value: This study offers a unique perspective on poverty dynamics in Turkey, focusing on both entry and exit rates. It provides valuable insights for those formulating policies or strategies aimed at poverty reduction, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach to poverty alleviation.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135929453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose ― This study examines the externalities of CO2 emissions from solid fuel consumption on rice production in Pakistan using time series data from 1984 to 2021. Methods ― The independent variables include CO2 emissions from solid fuel consumption, cultivated area, agricultural equipment, tube wells, and improved seed, whereas the dependent variable is rice production. A robust analysis was done by altering the solid fuel CO2 emissions proxy. The empirical study used the vector error correction model and Johansen's cointegration test.Findings ― Solid fuel CO2 emissions negatively and significantly impact rice production, implying that solid fuel CO2 emissions decrease rice production. Tube wells have a negative and significant influence on rice production. Conversely, cropped land, agricultural machinery, and improved seeds boosted rice production. The results remained robust even when the proxy for solid fuel CO2 emissions was changed. Implications ― The study recommends developing regulations to limit solid fuel CO2 emissions to prevent environmental degradation and increase rice production. To boost rice production, more land should be farmed, agricultural machinery should be employed, and improved seeds should be used.Originality ― This study is the first to examine the impact of CO2 emissions from solid fuel consumption on rice production in Pakistan
{"title":"The externalities of solid fuel CO2 emissions on rice production: A time series analysis for Pakistan","authors":"Mansoor Mushtaq, Arshad Mahmood Malik, Gulnaz Hameed","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art8","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ― This study examines the externalities of CO2 emissions from solid fuel consumption on rice production in Pakistan using time series data from 1984 to 2021. Methods ― The independent variables include CO2 emissions from solid fuel consumption, cultivated area, agricultural equipment, tube wells, and improved seed, whereas the dependent variable is rice production. A robust analysis was done by altering the solid fuel CO2 emissions proxy. The empirical study used the vector error correction model and Johansen's cointegration test.Findings ― Solid fuel CO2 emissions negatively and significantly impact rice production, implying that solid fuel CO2 emissions decrease rice production. Tube wells have a negative and significant influence on rice production. Conversely, cropped land, agricultural machinery, and improved seeds boosted rice production. The results remained robust even when the proxy for solid fuel CO2 emissions was changed. Implications ― The study recommends developing regulations to limit solid fuel CO2 emissions to prevent environmental degradation and increase rice production. To boost rice production, more land should be farmed, agricultural machinery should be employed, and improved seeds should be used.Originality ― This study is the first to examine the impact of CO2 emissions from solid fuel consumption on rice production in Pakistan","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135930383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art2
Pablo R. Liboreiro
Purpose ― In the present study, the effects of labor market distortions on economic structure and efficiency are estimated for seven emerging-market countries: Brazil, China, Indonesia, India, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey. Methods ― The estimates are based on a computable equilibrium (CGE) model that allows simulation of the inter-industry links of 56 industries plus a sector representing the rest of the world from data collected in the World Input-Output Database (Release 2016) for the period 2000-2014. Findings ― The results show that wage differentials appear to be distortionary, especially in the cases of countries with high wage-income inequality. Moreover, it seems that labor market distortions in emerging-market countries are subject to the rural-urban dichotomy and urban labor-market imperfections. Finally, the results show that the removal of wage differentials affects the terms of trade, which are improved in most but not all cases.Implication ― The conclusions of the present study have policy implications. In countries where the rural-urban dichotomy is the main distortion in labor markets, increasing urbanization can stimulate efficiency; when this is not the case, further reform of urban labor markets is needed. However, it cannot be ruled out in advance that a policy aimed at enhancing labor mobility may have a negative impact on the terms of trade. Originality ― The estimation method used in the present study presents certain advances over others found in the literature, as it becomes possible to estimate the effects of labor-market distortions while considering the interdependencies between different sectors, as well as to plausibly estimate the effects on trade. The present study also uses a large quantity of data, which is expected to add robustness to the study’s conclusion.
{"title":"Labor market distortions in major emerging-market economies: Some CGE estimates","authors":"Pablo R. Liboreiro","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art2","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ― In the present study, the effects of labor market distortions on economic structure and efficiency are estimated for seven emerging-market countries: Brazil, China, Indonesia, India, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey. Methods ― The estimates are based on a computable equilibrium (CGE) model that allows simulation of the inter-industry links of 56 industries plus a sector representing the rest of the world from data collected in the World Input-Output Database (Release 2016) for the period 2000-2014. Findings ― The results show that wage differentials appear to be distortionary, especially in the cases of countries with high wage-income inequality. Moreover, it seems that labor market distortions in emerging-market countries are subject to the rural-urban dichotomy and urban labor-market imperfections. Finally, the results show that the removal of wage differentials affects the terms of trade, which are improved in most but not all cases.Implication ― The conclusions of the present study have policy implications. In countries where the rural-urban dichotomy is the main distortion in labor markets, increasing urbanization can stimulate efficiency; when this is not the case, further reform of urban labor markets is needed. However, it cannot be ruled out in advance that a policy aimed at enhancing labor mobility may have a negative impact on the terms of trade. Originality ― The estimation method used in the present study presents certain advances over others found in the literature, as it becomes possible to estimate the effects of labor-market distortions while considering the interdependencies between different sectors, as well as to plausibly estimate the effects on trade. The present study also uses a large quantity of data, which is expected to add robustness to the study’s conclusion.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135808954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art6
Barbara Claire, Diah Widyawati
Purpose ― This research investigates the relationship between ASEAN's industrialization, renewable energy, and CO2 emissions. The primary objectives are to assess the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in ASEAN and to explore the potential mediating effect of renewable energy in the relationship between industrialization and CO2 emissions.Methods ― The study utilizes the PMG-ARDL estimation method in nine ASEAN countries from 1990 to 2019, providing short- and long-term analyses of the variables involved.Findings ― The finding reveals the presence of the EKC in ASEAN in the short term for most member states. It also finds that renewable energy mediates the relationship between industrial value-added and CO2 emissions, with renewable energy adoption altering the turning point of per capita CO2 emissions during industrialization in several ASEAN nations.Implication ― The findings suggest that transitioning to renewable energy can help mitigate the environmental impact of ASEAN’s industrial development. Thus, member states committed to energy targets should prioritize deploying renewable energy in their industrial sectors to achieve environmental benefits.Originality ― This research contributes to the existing literature by specifically examining the interplay between industrialization, renewable energy, and CO2 emissions in ASEAN. The use of the PMG-ARDL estimation method and the focus on the mediating role of renewable energy add originality to the study.
{"title":"Impact of industrialization and renewable energy on carbon dioxide emission in 9 ASEAN countries","authors":"Barbara Claire, Diah Widyawati","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art6","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ― This research investigates the relationship between ASEAN's industrialization, renewable energy, and CO2 emissions. The primary objectives are to assess the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in ASEAN and to explore the potential mediating effect of renewable energy in the relationship between industrialization and CO2 emissions.Methods ― The study utilizes the PMG-ARDL estimation method in nine ASEAN countries from 1990 to 2019, providing short- and long-term analyses of the variables involved.Findings ― The finding reveals the presence of the EKC in ASEAN in the short term for most member states. It also finds that renewable energy mediates the relationship between industrial value-added and CO2 emissions, with renewable energy adoption altering the turning point of per capita CO2 emissions during industrialization in several ASEAN nations.Implication ― The findings suggest that transitioning to renewable energy can help mitigate the environmental impact of ASEAN’s industrial development. Thus, member states committed to energy targets should prioritize deploying renewable energy in their industrial sectors to achieve environmental benefits.Originality ― This research contributes to the existing literature by specifically examining the interplay between industrialization, renewable energy, and CO2 emissions in ASEAN. The use of the PMG-ARDL estimation method and the focus on the mediating role of renewable energy add originality to the study.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"148 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135929445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art3
Banna Banik, Chandan Kumar Roy
Purpose ― The main objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive digital financial inclusion index (CDFII) that accounts for technology-driven financial inclusion and to compare it with a traditional financial inclusion index (TFII) to enhance the measurement of fintech-driven financial inclusion across countries.Methods ― The study employs a three-stage principal component analysis (PCA) to construct the CDFII and TFII using the latest available data from 31 developing countries during the period 2015-2021. The CDFII incorporates a new sub-index measuring individual literacy levels for using financial services, along with existing sub-indices capturing the penetration, availability, and usage of DFS. By integrating digital financial inclusion (DFII) and TFII, the overall CDFII is estimated.Findings ― The findings reveal that the levels of DFII and CDFII are higher than TFII for most of the economies examined. This indicates the significant impact of technology-driven financial inclusion in expanding access to formal banking and non-banking financial services for previously unbanked populations.Implication ― The study implies that policymakers and researchers should prioritize the integration of technology-driven financial inclusion indicators, such as the comprehensive digital financial inclusion index (CDFII), into their assessments and interventions to ensure a more accurate and effective approach to promoting inclusive and sustainable economic development.Originality ― This study introduces the CDFII as a novel comprehensive index that addresses the shortcomings of traditional financial inclusion indices. By incorporating individual skill levels and considering dimensions specific to DFS, the CDFII provides a more accurate representation of fintech-driven financial inclusion levels. This contributes to the existing literature on financial inclusion measurement and provides a valuable analytical tool for researchers and policymakers.
{"title":"Measuring fintech-driven financial inclusion for developing countries: Comprehensive Digital Financial Inclusion Index (CDFII)","authors":"Banna Banik, Chandan Kumar Roy","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art3","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ― The main objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive digital financial inclusion index (CDFII) that accounts for technology-driven financial inclusion and to compare it with a traditional financial inclusion index (TFII) to enhance the measurement of fintech-driven financial inclusion across countries.Methods ― The study employs a three-stage principal component analysis (PCA) to construct the CDFII and TFII using the latest available data from 31 developing countries during the period 2015-2021. The CDFII incorporates a new sub-index measuring individual literacy levels for using financial services, along with existing sub-indices capturing the penetration, availability, and usage of DFS. By integrating digital financial inclusion (DFII) and TFII, the overall CDFII is estimated.Findings ― The findings reveal that the levels of DFII and CDFII are higher than TFII for most of the economies examined. This indicates the significant impact of technology-driven financial inclusion in expanding access to formal banking and non-banking financial services for previously unbanked populations.Implication ― The study implies that policymakers and researchers should prioritize the integration of technology-driven financial inclusion indicators, such as the comprehensive digital financial inclusion index (CDFII), into their assessments and interventions to ensure a more accurate and effective approach to promoting inclusive and sustainable economic development.Originality ― This study introduces the CDFII as a novel comprehensive index that addresses the shortcomings of traditional financial inclusion indices. By incorporating individual skill levels and considering dimensions specific to DFS, the CDFII provides a more accurate representation of fintech-driven financial inclusion levels. This contributes to the existing literature on financial inclusion measurement and provides a valuable analytical tool for researchers and policymakers.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135809118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art1
Yusuf Shamsuddeen Nadabo
Purpose ― The study aims to investigate the impact of remittances on financial sector development in Nigeria using data from 1990 to 2021.Method ― The study examines the variables' relationship using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Toda Yamamoto (TY) Causality.Findings ― The study finds that remittances have a positive and significant long-run impact on financial sector development. Total reserves and imports of goods and services have a negative and significant long-run impact. In the short run, remittances and deposit interest rates positively and significantly impact financial sector development, while total reserves and total population have negative and significant impacts. The Toda-Yamamoto causality result indicates a two-way causal relationship between financial sector development and remittances.Implication ― The study recommends that the government employs policies encouraging channeling remittances through a formal banking system, as well as ensuring that such remittances received are channeled to finance productive investment, hence financial development.Originality ― The novelty of this research relates to the use of the three main indicators of remittances in an economy, which are the import of goods and services, total reserves, and deposit interest rates, to examine its impact on financial sector development in Nigeria
{"title":"Revisiting the nexus between remittances and financial sector development in Nigeria","authors":"Yusuf Shamsuddeen Nadabo","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art1","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ― The study aims to investigate the impact of remittances on financial sector development in Nigeria using data from 1990 to 2021.Method ― The study examines the variables' relationship using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Toda Yamamoto (TY) Causality.Findings ― The study finds that remittances have a positive and significant long-run impact on financial sector development. Total reserves and imports of goods and services have a negative and significant long-run impact. In the short run, remittances and deposit interest rates positively and significantly impact financial sector development, while total reserves and total population have negative and significant impacts. The Toda-Yamamoto causality result indicates a two-way causal relationship between financial sector development and remittances.Implication ― The study recommends that the government employs policies encouraging channeling remittances through a formal banking system, as well as ensuring that such remittances received are channeled to finance productive investment, hence financial development.Originality ― The novelty of this research relates to the use of the three main indicators of remittances in an economy, which are the import of goods and services, total reserves, and deposit interest rates, to examine its impact on financial sector development in Nigeria","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135808970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-29DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art7
Çağlayan Aslan, Senay Acikgoz
Purpose – This paper examines the effect of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on emerging markets (EMs) export flows. Methods – This paper uses a structural panel vector autoregression modeling approach to capture country interdependencies and the likelihood that EMs’ responses are heterogeneous and dynamic. An unbalanced monthly panel data from 2003:01 to 2019:12 is used to estimate impulse responses and variance decompositions not only for the entire panel data but also for each EM. Findings – The results show that global EPU has a persistent and negative effect on exports, while foreign income and the exchange rate increase export volumes in EMs. Given the different responses of EMs to uncertainty shocks, the second-stage regression estimates suggest that greater sectoral export diversification in an EM can potentially reduce the unfavorable impact of global EPU on their export flows. Meanwhile, the higher technology content of exports leads to a multiplication of global EPU transmissions. Implication – These findings advance the literature by highlighting the importance of accounting for the transmission effect of global EPU in EMs by considering country heterogeneity. Originality – This is the sole paper examining the factors that mitigate or amplify GEPU impacts on export flows by estimating second-step ordinary least square equations.
{"title":"Are the global economic policy uncertainties blocking the export flows of emerging markets? A heterogeneous panel SVAR analysis","authors":"Çağlayan Aslan, Senay Acikgoz","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art7","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose – This paper examines the effect of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on emerging markets (EMs) export flows.\u0000Methods – This paper uses a structural panel vector autoregression modeling approach to capture country interdependencies and the likelihood that EMs’ responses are heterogeneous and dynamic. An unbalanced monthly panel data from 2003:01 to 2019:12 is used to estimate impulse responses and variance decompositions not only for the entire panel data but also for each EM.\u0000Findings – The results show that global EPU has a persistent and negative effect on exports, while foreign income and the exchange rate increase export volumes in EMs. Given the different responses of EMs to uncertainty shocks, the second-stage regression estimates suggest that greater sectoral export diversification in an EM can potentially reduce the unfavorable impact of global EPU on their export flows. Meanwhile, the higher technology content of exports leads to a multiplication of global EPU transmissions.\u0000Implication – These findings advance the literature by highlighting the importance of accounting for the transmission effect of global EPU in EMs by considering country heterogeneity.\u0000Originality – This is the sole paper examining the factors that mitigate or amplify GEPU impacts on export flows by estimating second-step ordinary least square equations.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"58 1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77809515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-29DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art6
Ali Irushad, Mohamed Asmy Bin Mohd Thas Thaker, Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker
Purpose – This paper examines factors that determine the unemployment rate in the Maldives. Methods – This paper uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in capturing long and short-run associations among the chosen variables. It uses some macroeconomic variables, namely unemployment rate, population, economic growth, foreign direct investment, external debts, inflation rate, and expatriate workers. Findings – The empirical results suggest that except for expatriate workers, all the variables are significant determinants of unemployment rate in the long run. The study found that economic growth and inflation would negatively and significantly contribute to unemployment rate when they are combined. This explains the unemployment nexus which follows the Phillips curve and Okun’s law relationship provides the presence of both these hypotheses in the Maldives in the short-run and long-run. In addition, an increase in population and external debts worsens the unemployment situation in the Maldives. Although expatriate workers are not significant in the long run, the results reveal that they have a significant positive effect on unemployment in the short run. Implications – This result implies that the Maldivian government should encourage locals in the country to participate in the labor force and limit the participation of expatriate workers in an industry that has a shortage of skilled expertise. Originality – This study expands our understanding of key determinants of the unemployment rate in Maldives. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is among the pioneer empirical study to assess the issue.
{"title":"What drives the unemployment rate in Maldives? An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach","authors":"Ali Irushad, Mohamed Asmy Bin Mohd Thas Thaker, Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art6","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose – This paper examines factors that determine the unemployment rate in the Maldives.\u0000Methods – This paper uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in capturing long and short-run associations among the chosen variables. It uses some macroeconomic variables, namely unemployment rate, population, economic growth, foreign direct investment, external debts, inflation rate, and expatriate workers.\u0000Findings – The empirical results suggest that except for expatriate workers, all the variables are significant determinants of unemployment rate in the long run. The study found that economic growth and inflation would negatively and significantly contribute to unemployment rate when they are combined. This explains the unemployment nexus which follows the Phillips curve and Okun’s law relationship provides the presence of both these hypotheses in the Maldives in the short-run and long-run. In addition, an increase in population and external debts worsens the unemployment situation in the Maldives. Although expatriate workers are not significant in the long run, the results reveal that they have a significant positive effect on unemployment in the short run.\u0000Implications – This result implies that the Maldivian government should encourage locals in the country to participate in the labor force and limit the participation of expatriate workers in an industry that has a shortage of skilled expertise.\u0000Originality – This study expands our understanding of key determinants of the unemployment rate in Maldives. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is among the pioneer empirical study to assess the issue.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"81 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90274119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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