使用预测灰色模型和自回归关系模型管理中国和俄罗斯医疗保健发展

Pingping He
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摘要

本文探讨了由于人口老龄化和传染病在世界范围内的流行,医疗保险基金可能面临的风险。通过分析中俄两国现有医保资金制度的结构差异,运用灰色模型和自回归模型对中俄两国现有医保资金流动进行预测。然后将预测模型的结果纳入随后的管理模型,以便为两国健康保险系统的未来管理提出优化建议。本文的新颖之处在于不仅分析了医疗保险融资体系的结构,而且利用预测模型为医疗保险的未来发展提出了优化的管理决策。研究结果为国民健康保险管理提供了理论支持和指导。优化后的俄罗斯健康保险管理模式的结果表明,优化后的方案不仅很好地改善了融资缺口,而且留有平衡。
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Managing Chinese and Russian healthcare development using a predictive Gray model and an autoregressive relationship model
This article examines the possible risks for health insurance funds due to an ageing population and the prevalence of infectious diseases in the world. By analyzing the structural differences between the existing health insurance funding systems in China and Russia, and using a Gray's model and an autoregressive model to forecast the existing flows of health insurance funds in Russia and China. The results of the forecasting model are then incorporated into a subsequent management model in order to propose optimisations for the future management of health insurance systems in both countries. The novelty of this paper lies not only in the analysis of the structure of the health insurance financing system, but also in the use of a predictive model to propose optimised management decisions for the future development of health insurance. The results provide theoretical support as well as guidance for national health insurance management. The results of the optimized management model for Russian health insurance show that the optimized solution not only improves the financing gap well, but also leaves a balance.
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