对员工流失率和组织内部流动的影响:基于马尔可夫链的应用与干预

Amrita Pratap, Vijit Chaturvedi, Prachi Bhat
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摘要

本文的目的是将吸收马尔可夫链模型应用于离散时间间隔内组织员工流失率的研究。这要求转移概率矩阵是随机的,马尔可夫网络至少有一个“吸收态”。本文通过将员工离开组织与一种状态联系起来来解决这个问题,这种状态以后称为“退出状态”,这被归因于“吸收状态”。吸收态的概率特性的物理解释逻辑上将其与“空洞”联系起来。“无效”状态在系统的初始状态中没有资源/元素,而在最终状态中,任何过渡到此状态的资源/元素都变得不可恢复,因此对于组织的所有实际目的都没有贡献。这个概念支持了马尔可夫分析中随机矩阵的构造。自由市场的动态和自由的普遍含义——免于恐惧的自由、免于匮乏的自由和免于严酷从属的自由,正如当今数字一代所感知的那样,是他们行使选择和改变组织自由的良好意图背后的原因。因此,如何留住人才,关注员工离职的变化趋势,是企业领导层关注的问题。本文通过对一家在印度运营的跨国公司员工流失率的案例研究,论证了我们的概念模型的成功应用,探讨了高流失率的原因,并为领导层提供了与员工双赢互动的建议。
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Lensing to employee attrition rate and internal movement in an organization: Application and intervention through Markov chain
The objective of the paper is to apply Absorbing Markov chain model in the study of employees’ attrition rate of an organisation over a discrete time interval. This requires transition probability matrix to be stochastic and Markov network to have at least one ‘absorbing state’. The paper addresses this problem by associating the employees leaving the organisation with a state, hereafter called ‘ exit state’, which is ascribed to ‘the absorbing state’. The physical interpretation of the probabilistic characteristic of an absorbing state logically relates it to a ‘void’ . The state of ‘void’ has no resource / element in the initial state of the system, and, in the final state, any resource/ element transitioned to this state becomes irretrievable, hence non-contributory to the organisation for all practical purpose. This concept supports the construction of stochastic matrix of Markov analysis. The dynamics of free markets and prevalent meaning of freedom- freedom from fear, freedom from scarcity and freedom from harsh subordination, as perceived by the present-day digital generation, are the reasons behind their good intention to exercise freedom of choosing and changing organisations. It is, therefore, a matter of concern for corporate leadership to ponder over how to retain talented personnel and keep watch over changing trends of employees quitting the organisations. The present paper demonstrates the successful application of our conceptual model by a case study of employees’ attrition rate of an MNC operating in India, discusses the causes of high attrition rate and provides suggestions to leadership for win-win interaction with the employees.
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