Maize farmers’ adaptation to drought: Do risk attitudes and perceived risk probability matter?

Drought effect is the most common consequence among all aspects of climate variability phenomenon. Accordingly, understanding farm-level decisions to adopt strategies to mitigate the negative impact of extreme climate events such as drought is a vital ingredient for making policy suggestions necessary for effective adaptation to climate change. The study aims at investigating the effect of risk attitudes and perceived probability of drought occurrence on farmers’ decisions to adopt new drought-tolerant maize varieties to adapt drought associated with climate change. Data was collected from farmers who were sampled using multistage sampling techniques. Estimation of standard Bayesian Probit, completed by using Bayesian Reversal Jump Probit analysis was done to arrive at study results. Farmers were found to adapt to climate change using Integrated Pest Management (IPM), adjustment in planting and/or harvesting times, and growing special new varieties. Majority of farmers were willing to adopt new drought-tolerant maize variety rather than the traditional ones they grew in the past. Further, the study revealed that farmers with risk seeking attitudes who are less sensitive to losses, and also perceived the occurrence of extreme drought as highly probable, are more likely to adopt and cultivate drought tolerant maize variety, when recommended to them. As part of a planned course of action necessary to adapt to climate change, planning of appropriate extension communication approach that would facilitate farmers’ adoption of the new tolerant-variety must understand farmers’ decision-behaviour under risk, and their perceptions of the riskiness of the strategies.