Zhen Liu, Luis Sandoval, Lauren B. Sherman, Andrew M. Wilson
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引用次数: 0
摘要
众所周知,热带山区特有的动物特别容易受到气候变化的影响。塔拉曼卡山脉(哥斯达黎加和巴拿马)是一个地理上孤立的山脉,也是全球生物多样性的热点,是50多种特有鸟类的家园。我们利用eBird社区科学观测预测了2006-2015年和2070年四种气候变化情景下48种特有种的分布。利用Maxent程序,结合海拔、卫星获取的栖息地数据和WorldClim气候变量,预测物种分布。通过接收算子曲线下面积(Area under Receiver Operator Curve, AUC)评估,大多数物种的模型拟合度非常高,范围为0.877 ~ 0.992,平均值为0.94。我们发现,到2070年,大多数物种预计将经历范围缩小,在温和气候变化(RCP 2.6)下平均为15%,在更严重的气候变化(RCP 8.5)下平均为40%。这些物种目前的大部分分布范围都在现有的保护区内(2006-2015年平均为59%),随着分布范围的缩小,预计这些保护区的重要性将会增加。我们认为,这些预测的范围下降应该提高对这组物种的保护关注,并且迫切需要以更好的种群监测形式保持警惕。
Vulnerability of elevation-restricted endemic birds of the Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) to climate change
Animals endemic to tropical mountains are known to be especially vulnerable to climate change. The Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) is a geographically isolated mountain chain and global biodiversity hotspot, home to more than 50 endemic bird species. We used eBird community science observations to predict the distributions of a suite of 48 of these endemic birds in 2006–2015, and in 2070, under four climate change scenarios. Species distributions were predicted using program Maxent, incorporating elevation, satellite derived habitat data, and WorldClim climate variables. Model fit, as assessed by Area under the Receiver Operator Curve (AUC), was very high for most species, ranging from 0.877 to 0.992 (mean of 0.94). We found that most species are predicted to undergo range contractions by 2070, with a mean of 15% under modest climate change (RCP 2.6) up to a mean of 40% under more severe climate change (RCP 8.5). Most of the current ranges of these species are within existing protected areas (average of 59% in 2006–2015), and with prospective range contractions, the importance of these protected areas is forecast to increase. We suggest that these predicted range declines should elevate conservation concerns for this suite of species, and vigilance, in the form of better population monitoring, is urgently needed.