综合建模的生态学:在瑞典气候治理中配置政策相关性

IF 3.3 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Frontiers in Climate Pub Date : 2023-09-22 DOI:10.3389/fclim.2023.1159860
Johan Daniel Andersson
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于时间跨度长、不确定性深,综合模型构建在建立对应对气候变化进程未来轨迹的共同预期、动员知识型专家网络、协助确定共同问题、确定政策解决方案和评估政策结果方面发挥了关键作用。在气候变化科学和气候治理之间的交叉点,完全的经验方法是不可行的,数值模拟已经成为评估真理主张的核心实践,以及在相关参与者之间传输和翻译数据、方法和指导原则的关键媒介。使综合评估作为综合建模工作的独特之处在于,它明确地以政策为导向,并被其政策相关性所证明。尽管政府间气候变化专门委员会认识到,综合建模在执行《巴黎协定》(例如在国家层面对气候立法进行影响评估)中的作用是非常宝贵的,但人们对它的认识却远远不够。本文以公共行政领域开展的边界工作为出发点,考察了在基于模型的情景分析的帮助下产生的远见知识如何与瑞典气候政策制定相关,重点关注了通过选择和使用模型参数将政治行动的关键指标制度化的过程。最后,它主张扩大对政策相关性的理解,超越制度方法,转向基于过程的观点,将相关性视为正在形成的东西。
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Ecologies of integrated modeling: configuring policy-relevance in Swedish climate governance
Due to the long timescales and deep uncertainties involved, comprehensive model-building has played a pivotal role in creating shared expectations about future trajectories for addressing climate change processes, mobilizing a network of knowledge-based experts who assist in defining common problems, identifying policy solutions, and assessing the policy outcomes. At the intersection between climate change science and climate governance, where wholly empirical methods are infeasible, numerical simulations have become the central practice for evaluating truth claims, and the key medium for the transport and translation of data, methods, and guiding principles among the actors involved. What makes integrated assessment unique as a comprehensive modeling-effort is that it is explicitly policy-oriented, justified by its policy-relevance. Although recognized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as invaluable to their review assessments, the role of integrated modeling in implementations of the Paris Agreement, such as in impact assessments of climate legislation on the national level, is far less known. Taking as its starting-point the boundary-work carried out in public administration, this paper examines how foresight knowledge produced with the help of model-based scenario analysis has been made relevant in Swedish climate policymaking, focusing on the processes by which key indicators for political action become institutionalized through the choice and use of model parameters. It concludes by arguing for an expanded understanding of policy-relevance, beyond institutional approaches and toward a process-based point of view, treating relevance as something in-the-making.
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Climate
Frontiers in Climate Environmental Science-Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
233
审稿时长
15 weeks
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