Pub Date : 2024-07-25DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1418015
Alcade C. Segnon, Mariame Magassa, E. A. R. Obossou, S. Partey, P. Houessionon, R. Zougmoré
Understanding the gender dimensions of vulnerability to climate change is crucial for designing effective gender-transformative climate actions. This is particularly crucial in the semi-arid regions of West Africa, a climate change “hotspot” where high dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods and limited adaptive capacity make agriculture and livelihoods highly vulnerable. In this study we combined semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with a systematic literature review to analyze gendered household vulnerability to climate change in Cinzana, a semi-arid area of Mali, and identify entry points for gender-transformative adaptation actions. The Livelihood Vulnerability assessment indicated that female-headed households were more vulnerable than male-headed households. Differential socio-demographic profiles, livelihood strategies, social networks, water and food and agricultural production systems were key drivers of the gendered vulnerability patterns. A systematic review of drivers of gendered vulnerability in Mali illustrated how socio-cultural norms and roles assigned to women, and limited women access to and control over productive resources and adaptation technologies make women more vulnerable to climatic and non-climatic risks. We highlight the need of gender transformative approaches to address the structural gender inequality and reduce vulnerability of female-headed households. We outline three pathways for reducing female-headed households’ vulnerability to climate change, including the promotion of gender-smart extension and climate advisory services and empowering women.
{"title":"Gender vulnerability assessment to inform gender-sensitive adaptation action: a case study in semi-arid areas of Mali","authors":"Alcade C. Segnon, Mariame Magassa, E. A. R. Obossou, S. Partey, P. Houessionon, R. Zougmoré","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1418015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1418015","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the gender dimensions of vulnerability to climate change is crucial for designing effective gender-transformative climate actions. This is particularly crucial in the semi-arid regions of West Africa, a climate change “hotspot” where high dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods and limited adaptive capacity make agriculture and livelihoods highly vulnerable. In this study we combined semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with a systematic literature review to analyze gendered household vulnerability to climate change in Cinzana, a semi-arid area of Mali, and identify entry points for gender-transformative adaptation actions. The Livelihood Vulnerability assessment indicated that female-headed households were more vulnerable than male-headed households. Differential socio-demographic profiles, livelihood strategies, social networks, water and food and agricultural production systems were key drivers of the gendered vulnerability patterns. A systematic review of drivers of gendered vulnerability in Mali illustrated how socio-cultural norms and roles assigned to women, and limited women access to and control over productive resources and adaptation technologies make women more vulnerable to climatic and non-climatic risks. We highlight the need of gender transformative approaches to address the structural gender inequality and reduce vulnerability of female-headed households. We outline three pathways for reducing female-headed households’ vulnerability to climate change, including the promotion of gender-smart extension and climate advisory services and empowering women.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141803719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-22DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1384202
R. Kunchala, Raju Attada, R. Karumuri, Vivek Seelanki, Bhupendra Bahadur Singh, Karumuri Ashok, Ibrahim Hoteit
This study assesses the aerosol optical depth (AOD) from historical simulations (2003–2014) and future climate scenarios (2015–2100) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Multi-model mean (MME) AOD statistics are generated as the average of those from the five best-performing CMIP6 models, which reproduce observational climate statistics. These models were selected based on the validation of various climate metrics, including strong pattern correlations with observations (>0.8). The resulting MME reproduces the observed AOD seasonal cycle well. The observed positive trends (summer and annual) over the Arabian Peninsula (AP) and negative trends (winter) over North Africa are well captured by MME, as regional meteorological drivers associated with observed AOD trends, with few discrepancies. Crucially, the MME fails to capture the AOD trends over North West Africa (NWA). For MENA and NWA regions, two high-emission scenarios, SSP370 and SSP585, project a continuous rise in the annual mean AOD until the end of the century. In contrast, the low-emission scenarios, SSP126 and SSP245, project a decreasing AOD trend. Interestingly, the projected future AOD area-averaged over the AP region varies significantly across all four scenarios in time. Notably, a substantial decrease of about 8–10% in the AOD is projected by the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios at the end of the century (2080–2100) relative to the current period. This projected decrease in annual-mean AOD, including the frequency of extreme AOD years under SSP585, is potentially associated with a concurrent increase in annual-mean rainfall over the AP.
{"title":"Climatology, trends, and future projections of aerosol optical depth over the Middle East and North Africa region in CMIP6 models","authors":"R. Kunchala, Raju Attada, R. Karumuri, Vivek Seelanki, Bhupendra Bahadur Singh, Karumuri Ashok, Ibrahim Hoteit","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1384202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1384202","url":null,"abstract":"This study assesses the aerosol optical depth (AOD) from historical simulations (2003–2014) and future climate scenarios (2015–2100) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Multi-model mean (MME) AOD statistics are generated as the average of those from the five best-performing CMIP6 models, which reproduce observational climate statistics. These models were selected based on the validation of various climate metrics, including strong pattern correlations with observations (>0.8). The resulting MME reproduces the observed AOD seasonal cycle well. The observed positive trends (summer and annual) over the Arabian Peninsula (AP) and negative trends (winter) over North Africa are well captured by MME, as regional meteorological drivers associated with observed AOD trends, with few discrepancies. Crucially, the MME fails to capture the AOD trends over North West Africa (NWA). For MENA and NWA regions, two high-emission scenarios, SSP370 and SSP585, project a continuous rise in the annual mean AOD until the end of the century. In contrast, the low-emission scenarios, SSP126 and SSP245, project a decreasing AOD trend. Interestingly, the projected future AOD area-averaged over the AP region varies significantly across all four scenarios in time. Notably, a substantial decrease of about 8–10% in the AOD is projected by the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios at the end of the century (2080–2100) relative to the current period. This projected decrease in annual-mean AOD, including the frequency of extreme AOD years under SSP585, is potentially associated with a concurrent increase in annual-mean rainfall over the AP.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141814188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-17DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1409237
Aimie Moulin, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Emanuela Clementi, G. Verri, Paola Mercogliano
Assessing the impact of climate change on wave conditions, including average and extreme waves, is vital for numerous marine-related activities, industries, coastal vulnerability, and marine habitats. Previous research, primarily on a large scale, has investigated this topic, but its relevance for marginal basins like the Adriatic Sea is limited due to the low resolution of the wave models used and atmospheric forcing. To contribute to filling in the gap, here we implemented a high-resolution model (about 2 km) for the period 1992–2050. The future wave climate is simulated for the RCP8.5 emission scenario. This model, developed within the AdriaClim project, comprises, among others, a high-resolution atmospheric downscaling, a circulation Limited Area Model and a spectral wave model. A comparison of our simulation's results with Copernicus Marine Service wave reanalysis on the historical baseline, confirms its accuracy in reproducing both average wave parameters and 95th percentile values, as well as the seasonal cycle, showing the AdriaClim model's suitability as a source to predict future wave climates in the Adriatic Sea. The projected changes suggest a slight increase in average significant wave height and mean wave period, and a more significant decrease at the 95th percentile, with a relevant variability by location and season, partially aligning with previous studies. This study highlights the potential effect of local climate change in coastal areas and the importance of developing long-term simulation with a downscaled modeling system for regional areas.
{"title":"Projections of the Adriatic wave conditions under climate changes","authors":"Aimie Moulin, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Emanuela Clementi, G. Verri, Paola Mercogliano","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1409237","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1409237","url":null,"abstract":"Assessing the impact of climate change on wave conditions, including average and extreme waves, is vital for numerous marine-related activities, industries, coastal vulnerability, and marine habitats. Previous research, primarily on a large scale, has investigated this topic, but its relevance for marginal basins like the Adriatic Sea is limited due to the low resolution of the wave models used and atmospheric forcing. To contribute to filling in the gap, here we implemented a high-resolution model (about 2 km) for the period 1992–2050. The future wave climate is simulated for the RCP8.5 emission scenario. This model, developed within the AdriaClim project, comprises, among others, a high-resolution atmospheric downscaling, a circulation Limited Area Model and a spectral wave model. A comparison of our simulation's results with Copernicus Marine Service wave reanalysis on the historical baseline, confirms its accuracy in reproducing both average wave parameters and 95th percentile values, as well as the seasonal cycle, showing the AdriaClim model's suitability as a source to predict future wave climates in the Adriatic Sea. The projected changes suggest a slight increase in average significant wave height and mean wave period, and a more significant decrease at the 95th percentile, with a relevant variability by location and season, partially aligning with previous studies. This study highlights the potential effect of local climate change in coastal areas and the importance of developing long-term simulation with a downscaled modeling system for regional areas.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141829207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-05DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1345085
T. Jones, J. Poitras, A. Levett, Guilherme da Silva, Samadhi Gunathunga, Benjamin Ryan, A. Vietti, Andrew Langendam, Gordon Southam
The observation of photosynthetic biofilms growing on the Fine Residue Deposit (FRD) kimberlite produced by the Venetia Diamond Mine, Limpopo, South Africa suggests that processed kimberlite supports bacterial growth. The presence of this biofilm may aid in the acceleration of weathering of this ultra-mafic host material – a process that can sequester CO2 via carbon mineralization. Laboratory and field trial experiments were undertaken to understand the microbe–mineral interactions occurring in these systems, and how these interactions impact geochemical cycling and carbonate precipitation. At laboratory scale it was discovered that using kimberlite as a growth supplement increased biomass production (up to 25-fold) and promoted microbiome diversity, while the inoculation of FRD systems aided in the aggregation, settling, and dewatering of kimberlitic slurries. Field trial studies combining photosynthetic biofilms (cultured in 3 × 1,000 L bioreactors) with FRD material were initiated to better understand microbially enhanced mineral carbonation across different depths, and under field environmental conditions. Over the 15-month experiment the microbial populations shifted with the kimberlitic environmental pressure, with the control and inoculated systems converging. The natural endogenous biosphere (control) and the inoculum accelerated carbonate precipitation across the entire 40 cm bioreactor depth, producing average 15-month carbonation rates of 0.57 wt.% and 1.17 wt.%, respectively. This corresponds to an annual CO2e mine offset of ~4.48% and ~ 9.2%, respectively. Millimetre-centimetre scale secondary carbonate that formed in the inoculated bioreactors was determined to be biogenic in nature (i.e., possessing microbial fossils) and took the form of radiating colloform precipitates with the addition of new, mineralized colonies. Surficial conditions resulted in the largest production of secondary carbonate, consistent with a ca. 12% mine site CO2e annual offset after a 15-month incubation period.
{"title":"Microbe-mineral interactions within kimberlitic fine residue deposits: impacts on mineral carbonation","authors":"T. Jones, J. Poitras, A. Levett, Guilherme da Silva, Samadhi Gunathunga, Benjamin Ryan, A. Vietti, Andrew Langendam, Gordon Southam","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1345085","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1345085","url":null,"abstract":"The observation of photosynthetic biofilms growing on the Fine Residue Deposit (FRD) kimberlite produced by the Venetia Diamond Mine, Limpopo, South Africa suggests that processed kimberlite supports bacterial growth. The presence of this biofilm may aid in the acceleration of weathering of this ultra-mafic host material – a process that can sequester CO2 via carbon mineralization. Laboratory and field trial experiments were undertaken to understand the microbe–mineral interactions occurring in these systems, and how these interactions impact geochemical cycling and carbonate precipitation. At laboratory scale it was discovered that using kimberlite as a growth supplement increased biomass production (up to 25-fold) and promoted microbiome diversity, while the inoculation of FRD systems aided in the aggregation, settling, and dewatering of kimberlitic slurries. Field trial studies combining photosynthetic biofilms (cultured in 3 × 1,000 L bioreactors) with FRD material were initiated to better understand microbially enhanced mineral carbonation across different depths, and under field environmental conditions. Over the 15-month experiment the microbial populations shifted with the kimberlitic environmental pressure, with the control and inoculated systems converging. The natural endogenous biosphere (control) and the inoculum accelerated carbonate precipitation across the entire 40 cm bioreactor depth, producing average 15-month carbonation rates of 0.57 wt.% and 1.17 wt.%, respectively. This corresponds to an annual CO2e mine offset of ~4.48% and ~ 9.2%, respectively. Millimetre-centimetre scale secondary carbonate that formed in the inoculated bioreactors was determined to be biogenic in nature (i.e., possessing microbial fossils) and took the form of radiating colloform precipitates with the addition of new, mineralized colonies. Surficial conditions resulted in the largest production of secondary carbonate, consistent with a ca. 12% mine site CO2e annual offset after a 15-month incubation period.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141676038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-04DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1414813
Dalia M. M. Yacout, Mats Tysklind, V. Upadhyayula
Arctic melting is an effect of climate change; the use of fossil fuels in marine shipping emits large amounts of air emissions that impact climate change, and Arctic aquatic and human life. Swedish pulp and paper mills generate large amounts of waste and side streams that could be utilized. The production of forest-based biofuel may be a promising solution to achieve sustainable Arctic marine shipping. This review highlights the socio-economic impacts associated with the production of forest-based biofuel in Sweden, the related opportunities, challenges, knowledge gaps, and further need of research. From the economic perspective, it was found that the production and use of forest-based biofuel have short and long-term economic sustainability benefits: (a) short-term benefits, the use of the waste and side streams of the pulp and paper industry is a low-cost available feedstock, unlike first-generation biofuel from crops like corn forest-based biofuels neither require additional land use, water resources nor compete with food. (b) Long-term benefits: (i) the Swedish shipping sector depends on imported fossil fuels, these new biofuels can replace partly those imported fossil fuels that will reduce shipping costs, and generate economic benefits for local consumers. (ii) Usage of forest-based biofuels as blends with conventional fuels in existing engines will reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Arctic shipping to the set limits in the region. (iii) One of the important socio-economic impacts of forest-based biofuel production and use is the new job creation and employment opportunities that will impact the local communities and livelihoods of indigenous people in the area. From a societal perspective, stakeholder involvement is essential to address the sustainability challenges of biofuel production: EU policymakers need to encourage the production and use of biofuels by developing policies that promote biofuel use. Further studies are needed to develop more efficient and low-cost biofuel production routes, more investments in related research and development are required as well. Local indigenous communities must be involved in the decision-making process through surveys, local dialogues, and research studies. The production of forest-based biofuels has great potential and many social-economic impacts alongside the environmental benefits.
{"title":"Socio-economic implications of forest-based biofuels for marine transportation in the Arctic: Sweden as a case study","authors":"Dalia M. M. Yacout, Mats Tysklind, V. Upadhyayula","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1414813","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1414813","url":null,"abstract":"Arctic melting is an effect of climate change; the use of fossil fuels in marine shipping emits large amounts of air emissions that impact climate change, and Arctic aquatic and human life. Swedish pulp and paper mills generate large amounts of waste and side streams that could be utilized. The production of forest-based biofuel may be a promising solution to achieve sustainable Arctic marine shipping. This review highlights the socio-economic impacts associated with the production of forest-based biofuel in Sweden, the related opportunities, challenges, knowledge gaps, and further need of research. From the economic perspective, it was found that the production and use of forest-based biofuel have short and long-term economic sustainability benefits: (a) short-term benefits, the use of the waste and side streams of the pulp and paper industry is a low-cost available feedstock, unlike first-generation biofuel from crops like corn forest-based biofuels neither require additional land use, water resources nor compete with food. (b) Long-term benefits: (i) the Swedish shipping sector depends on imported fossil fuels, these new biofuels can replace partly those imported fossil fuels that will reduce shipping costs, and generate economic benefits for local consumers. (ii) Usage of forest-based biofuels as blends with conventional fuels in existing engines will reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Arctic shipping to the set limits in the region. (iii) One of the important socio-economic impacts of forest-based biofuel production and use is the new job creation and employment opportunities that will impact the local communities and livelihoods of indigenous people in the area. From a societal perspective, stakeholder involvement is essential to address the sustainability challenges of biofuel production: EU policymakers need to encourage the production and use of biofuels by developing policies that promote biofuel use. Further studies are needed to develop more efficient and low-cost biofuel production routes, more investments in related research and development are required as well. Local indigenous communities must be involved in the decision-making process through surveys, local dialogues, and research studies. The production of forest-based biofuels has great potential and many social-economic impacts alongside the environmental benefits.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141677790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-02DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1441782
Chukwuebuka Edum, Alistair Rieu-Clarke, Owen McIntyre, Mara Tignino
{"title":"Editorial: Doubling global hydropower capacity by 2050 – what about the transboundary dimension?","authors":"Chukwuebuka Edum, Alistair Rieu-Clarke, Owen McIntyre, Mara Tignino","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1441782","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1441782","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141686499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-14DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1415642
Noah McQueen, David Drennan
Direct Air Capture (DAC) offers a promising pathway for combating climate change by removing carbon dioxide (CO2) directly from the atmosphere. Here, we discuss Heirloom’s approach to DAC, which uses naturally occurring minerals, namely, calcium carbonate (CaCO3), in a cyclic process that leverages warehouse automation systems previously developed for large warehouses. The integration of DAC with warehouse automation systems unlocks a degree of manufacturability, scalability, operational efficiency, and financial viability. For successful scaling, DAC technologies and project developers must think through key scalability constraints, including modularity, constructability, supply chains, and leveraging existing infrastructure.
{"title":"The use of warehouse automation technology for scalable and low-cost direct air capture","authors":"Noah McQueen, David Drennan","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1415642","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1415642","url":null,"abstract":"Direct Air Capture (DAC) offers a promising pathway for combating climate change by removing carbon dioxide (CO2) directly from the atmosphere. Here, we discuss Heirloom’s approach to DAC, which uses naturally occurring minerals, namely, calcium carbonate (CaCO3), in a cyclic process that leverages warehouse automation systems previously developed for large warehouses. The integration of DAC with warehouse automation systems unlocks a degree of manufacturability, scalability, operational efficiency, and financial viability. For successful scaling, DAC technologies and project developers must think through key scalability constraints, including modularity, constructability, supply chains, and leveraging existing infrastructure.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141342582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-14DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1380054
R. Lempert, Judy Lawrence, Robert E. Kopp, M. Haasnoot, Andy Reisinger, Michael Grubb, Roberto Pasqualino
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) exists to provide policy-relevant assessments of the science related to climate change. As such, the IPCC has long grappled with characterizing and communicating uncertainty in its assessments. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) is a set of concepts, methods, and tools to inform decisions when there exist substantial and significant limitations on what is and can be known about policy-relevant questions. Over the last twenty-five years, the IPCC has drawn increasingly on DMDU concepts to more effectively include policy-relevant, but lower-confidence scientific information in its assessments. This paper traces the history of the IPCC’s use of DMDU and explains the intersection with key IPCC concepts such as risk, scenarios, treatment of uncertainty, storylines and high-impact, low-likelihood outcomes, and both adaptation and climate resilient development pathways. The paper suggests how the IPCC might benefit from enhanced use of DMDU in its current (7th) assessment cycle.
{"title":"The use of decision making under deep uncertainty in the IPCC","authors":"R. Lempert, Judy Lawrence, Robert E. Kopp, M. Haasnoot, Andy Reisinger, Michael Grubb, Roberto Pasqualino","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1380054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1380054","url":null,"abstract":"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) exists to provide policy-relevant assessments of the science related to climate change. As such, the IPCC has long grappled with characterizing and communicating uncertainty in its assessments. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) is a set of concepts, methods, and tools to inform decisions when there exist substantial and significant limitations on what is and can be known about policy-relevant questions. Over the last twenty-five years, the IPCC has drawn increasingly on DMDU concepts to more effectively include policy-relevant, but lower-confidence scientific information in its assessments. This paper traces the history of the IPCC’s use of DMDU and explains the intersection with key IPCC concepts such as risk, scenarios, treatment of uncertainty, storylines and high-impact, low-likelihood outcomes, and both adaptation and climate resilient development pathways. The paper suggests how the IPCC might benefit from enhanced use of DMDU in its current (7th) assessment cycle.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141339703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-12DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1303951
Patrick Bodilly Kane, Nastaran Tebyanian, Daniel Gilles, Brett McMann, J. Fischbach
Future urban stormwater flood risk is determined by the confluence of both climate-driven changes in precipitation patterns and the effectiveness of flood mitigation systems, such as urban drainage and pump systems. This is especially true in coastal cities protected by levee systems like New Orleans, where even present-day rainfall would be enough to cause serious flooding in the absence of extensive stormwater drainage and pumping. However, while the uncertainties associated with climate change have been well studied, uncertainties in infrastructure performance and operation have received less attention.We investigated how these interrelated sets of uncertainties drive flood risk in New Orleans using a Robust Decision Making (RDM) approach. RDM is a framework for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) that leverages simulation models to facilitate exploration across many possible futures and the identification of decision-relevant scenarios. For our work, we leveraged a detailed Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) representation of the New Orleans urban stormwater management system to examine flood depths across the city when faced with different levels of future precipitation, sea-level rise, drainage pipe obstruction, and pumping system failure. We also estimated direct flood damage for each neighborhood in the city for this scenario ensemble. These damage estimates were then subjected to vulnerability analysis using scenario discovery—a technique designed to determine which combinations of uncertainties are most stressful to the system in terms of an outcome of interest (excess flood damage).Our results suggest that key drivers of vulnerability depend on geographic scale. Specifically, we find that possible climate-driven precipitation increases are the most important determinant of vulnerability at the citywide level. However, for some individual neighborhoods, infrastructure operation challenges under present day conditions are a more significant driver of vulnerability than possible climate-driven precipitation increases.
{"title":"Key drivers of vulnerability to rainfall flooding in New Orleans","authors":"Patrick Bodilly Kane, Nastaran Tebyanian, Daniel Gilles, Brett McMann, J. Fischbach","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1303951","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1303951","url":null,"abstract":"Future urban stormwater flood risk is determined by the confluence of both climate-driven changes in precipitation patterns and the effectiveness of flood mitigation systems, such as urban drainage and pump systems. This is especially true in coastal cities protected by levee systems like New Orleans, where even present-day rainfall would be enough to cause serious flooding in the absence of extensive stormwater drainage and pumping. However, while the uncertainties associated with climate change have been well studied, uncertainties in infrastructure performance and operation have received less attention.We investigated how these interrelated sets of uncertainties drive flood risk in New Orleans using a Robust Decision Making (RDM) approach. RDM is a framework for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) that leverages simulation models to facilitate exploration across many possible futures and the identification of decision-relevant scenarios. For our work, we leveraged a detailed Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) representation of the New Orleans urban stormwater management system to examine flood depths across the city when faced with different levels of future precipitation, sea-level rise, drainage pipe obstruction, and pumping system failure. We also estimated direct flood damage for each neighborhood in the city for this scenario ensemble. These damage estimates were then subjected to vulnerability analysis using scenario discovery—a technique designed to determine which combinations of uncertainties are most stressful to the system in terms of an outcome of interest (excess flood damage).Our results suggest that key drivers of vulnerability depend on geographic scale. Specifically, we find that possible climate-driven precipitation increases are the most important determinant of vulnerability at the citywide level. However, for some individual neighborhoods, infrastructure operation challenges under present day conditions are a more significant driver of vulnerability than possible climate-driven precipitation increases.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141354325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-12DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1397358
Gunnar Myhre, R. E. Byrom, Timothy Andrews, P. Forster, Christopher J. Smith
For effective radiative forcing (ERF) to be an ideal metric for comparing the strength of different climate drivers (such as CO2 and aerosols), the ratio of radiative forcing to global-mean temperature change must be the same for each driver. Typically, this ratio is divided by the same ratio for CO2 and termed efficacy. Previously it has been shown that efficacy is close to unity in abrupt perturbation experiments for a range of climate drivers, but efficacy with respect to CO2 has not been investigated in transient realistic simulations. Here, we analyse transient simulations from CMIP6 experiments and show comparable results between transient and abrupt perturbation experiments. We demonstrate that aerosol efficacy is not significantly different from unity, however inter-model differences in aerosol experiments are notably large.
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