机会组合:被历史遗忘的理论

Q1 Arts and Humanities Perspectives on Science Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI:10.1162/posc_a_00621
John D. Norton
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引用次数: 1

摘要

17世纪的“机会组合学”是一个自成体系的理论。它有一个客观的机会概念,来自具有机会属性的物理设备,如掷骰子,计算机会的组合学,以及解释其意义的规则,将这些计数转换为公平的赌注。它没有将机会作为信念的衡量标准,没有将机会计数与频率联系起来的精确方法,也没有比较不同游戏中的机会的方法。这些遗漏并不需要该理论对机会计数的解释:决定哪些是公平的赌注。该理论为如何在特殊情况下用数学精确地处理不确定性提供了一个模型,并激发了寻求更广泛理论的努力。
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Chance Combinatorics: The Theory that History Forgot
Abstract Seventeenth-century “chance combinatorics” was a self-contained theory. It had an objective notion of chance derived from physical devices with chance properties, such as casts of dice, combinatorics to count chances and, to interpret their significance, a rule for converting these counts into fair wagers. It lacked a notion of chance as a measure of belief, a precise way to connect chance counts with frequencies and a way to compare chances across different games. These omissions were not needed for the theory’s interpretation of chance counts: determining which are fair wagers. The theory provided a model for how indefinitenesses could be treated with mathematical precision in a special case and stimulated efforts to seek a broader theory.
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来源期刊
Perspectives on Science
Perspectives on Science Arts and Humanities-History and Philosophy of Science
CiteScore
1.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
48
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