印度外交政策的赌博:执行的重要性

IF 1.3 Asia Policy Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI:10.1353/asp.2023.a911626
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Confronted by the hype around Modi as a metonym for India's growing power and influence, rising uneasiness about the future of Indian democracy under his watch, and New Delhi's equivocal position on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, much of the commentary framed intensified relations with India through the metaphor of a \"gamble.\" Ashley Tellis began with an analysis of \"America's bad bet on India\" in Foreign Affairs in early May, arguing that the deepening defense relationship between Washington and New Delhi was unlikely to lead to India partnering with the United States in a military coalition against China.1 Later that month, Christophe Jaffrelot argued in Le Monde that \"betting on India is a short-sighted strategy for France,\" highlighting concerning domestic political trends and describing Indian democracy as \"literally put on hold\" between elections that are no longer fair.2 By July, Financial Times commentator Martin Wolf had concluded both that \"Western leaders are making a sensible bet on India\" because of its economic growth prospects and that \"Modi's India is moving in an illiberal direction.\"3 Other analysts [End Page 120] questioned whether India's rise was \"inevitable\" and if it would be best to deal with India \"as it is, not as we might like it to be.\"4 Anyone interested in these questions would benefit from reading Rajesh Basrur's careful and rigorous book Subcontinental Drift: Domestic Politics and India's Foreign Policy. Rather than assessing India's policy achievements and failures through the lens of the United States' imperative to counterbalance China in its systemic challenge or India's democratic potential to support the values-based construction of the Indo-Pacific as \"free and open,\" Subcontinental Drift's start and end point is New Delhi. Basrur's interest is \"the central concerns of Indian national security strategy\" (p. 28) and, more specifically, the ability of the Indian state \"to ensure the security of its people\" (p. 24). Importantly—and this is where the book's emphasis on \"drift\" comes in—his focus is less on the formation of domestic policy preferences and more on whether policymakers are able or willing to make good on those preferences once they have been formed (p. 23). The study's overall conclusion is sobering: \"India's potential for achieving major power status stands on a relatively weak foundation, owing to its inability to follow through on those policies that are crucial to its security\" (p. 193). Subcontinental Drift's point of departure is the observation that \"Indian foreign policy has often been characterized by multiple hesitations, delays, and diversions\" (p. 181). This justifies the volume's analytical focus on the domestic drivers of policy drift, which is defined as a policy process \"initiated purposefully but…greatly impeded by intervening factors\" (p. 8). Some of India's most pressing security concerns—its strategic relationships with the major-power United States and smaller-power Sri Lanka at pivotal moments, its long-term nuclear strategy, and its patchy record on protecting Indian citizens from cross-border terrorism—form the empirical substrate of the book. Basrur's focus on the domestic determinants of policy drift in each of these cases positions Subcontinental Drift in productive company with a small, though growing, number of existing works that take seriously how India's domestic context gives rise to and shapes its foreign policies. Policy drift is different, Basrur clarifies, from \"policy paralysis\" or purposelessness (p. 7). Where policy drifts, it has a direction but does not travel or travels only in a slow or meandering fashion. This is a weighty clarification to make: Are perceptions of Indian foreign policy ambivalence [End Page 121] both within and outside India better explained by policy drift by than policy preference? For example, does...","PeriodicalId":53442,"journal":{"name":"Asia Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Gambling on India's Foreign Policy: The Importance of Implementation\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1353/asp.2023.a911626\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Gambling on India's Foreign Policy:The Importance of Implementation Kate Sullivan de Estrada (bio) As Indian prime minister Narendra Modi ricocheted around the globe in mid-2023—welcomed in Japan and Australia in May, embraced in a four-day state visit to the United States in June, and celebrated as the guest of honor at France's Bastille Day parade in July—newspapers and policy journals brimmed with India analysis. Confronted by the hype around Modi as a metonym for India's growing power and influence, rising uneasiness about the future of Indian democracy under his watch, and New Delhi's equivocal position on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, much of the commentary framed intensified relations with India through the metaphor of a \\\"gamble.\\\" Ashley Tellis began with an analysis of \\\"America's bad bet on India\\\" in Foreign Affairs in early May, arguing that the deepening defense relationship between Washington and New Delhi was unlikely to lead to India partnering with the United States in a military coalition against China.1 Later that month, Christophe Jaffrelot argued in Le Monde that \\\"betting on India is a short-sighted strategy for France,\\\" highlighting concerning domestic political trends and describing Indian democracy as \\\"literally put on hold\\\" between elections that are no longer fair.2 By July, Financial Times commentator Martin Wolf had concluded both that \\\"Western leaders are making a sensible bet on India\\\" because of its economic growth prospects and that \\\"Modi's India is moving in an illiberal direction.\\\"3 Other analysts [End Page 120] questioned whether India's rise was \\\"inevitable\\\" and if it would be best to deal with India \\\"as it is, not as we might like it to be.\\\"4 Anyone interested in these questions would benefit from reading Rajesh Basrur's careful and rigorous book Subcontinental Drift: Domestic Politics and India's Foreign Policy. Rather than assessing India's policy achievements and failures through the lens of the United States' imperative to counterbalance China in its systemic challenge or India's democratic potential to support the values-based construction of the Indo-Pacific as \\\"free and open,\\\" Subcontinental Drift's start and end point is New Delhi. Basrur's interest is \\\"the central concerns of Indian national security strategy\\\" (p. 28) and, more specifically, the ability of the Indian state \\\"to ensure the security of its people\\\" (p. 24). Importantly—and this is where the book's emphasis on \\\"drift\\\" comes in—his focus is less on the formation of domestic policy preferences and more on whether policymakers are able or willing to make good on those preferences once they have been formed (p. 23). 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引用次数: 0

摘要

2023年年中,印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)在全球范围内大行其道,5月访问日本和澳大利亚,6月对美国进行为期四天的国事访问,7月成为法国巴士底日(Bastille Day)阅兵的贵宾,报纸和政策杂志上充斥着对印度的分析。莫迪被大肆宣传为印度日益增长的实力和影响力的代名词,人们对他治下印度民主的未来日益感到不安,新德里在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰问题上的立场模棱两可,面对这种情况,许多评论都用“赌博”的比喻来描述印印关系的强化。5月初,阿什利·泰利斯在《外交事务》上分析了“美国在印度押下的错误赌注”,认为华盛顿和新德里之间日益加深的防务关系不太可能导致印度与美国结成对抗中国的军事联盟。当月晚些时候,克里斯托弗·贾夫雷罗在《世界报》上指出,“对法国来说,押注印度是一种短视的战略。”强调对国内政治趋势的担忧,并将印度的民主描述为在不再公平的选举之间“实际上被搁置”到今年7月,《金融时报》评论员马丁•沃尔夫(Martin Wolf)总结道,鉴于印度的经济增长前景,“西方领导人正在明智地押注印度”,而“莫迪领导下的印度正朝着不自由的方向发展”。其他分析人士质疑印度的崛起是否“不可避免”,以及是否最好是“按照印度的现状,而不是按照我们希望的样子”来对待印度。任何对这些问题感兴趣的人都应该读读拉杰什•巴斯鲁的《次大陆漂移:国内政治与印度外交政策》这本严谨严谨的书。《次大陆漂移》的出发点和终点都是新德里,而不是通过美国在系统性挑战中制衡中国的必要性,或者印度支持印太地区“自由和开放”的基于价值观的建设的民主潜力来评估印度政策的成就和失败。Basrur的兴趣是“印度国家安全战略的核心问题”(第28页),更具体地说,是印度政府“确保其人民安全”的能力(第24页)。重要的是——这也是本书强调“漂移”的地方——他关注的不是国内政策偏好的形成,而是政策制定者一旦形成,是否能够或愿意兑现这些偏好(第23页)。该研究的总体结论发人深思:“印度取得大国地位的潜力建立在一个相对薄弱的基础上,因为它没有能力贯彻那些对其安全至关重要的政策”(第193页)。《次大陆漂移》的出发点是观察到“印度的外交政策常常以多次犹豫、拖延和转向为特征”(第181页)。这证明了本书将分析重点放在政策漂移的国内驱动因素上是合理的,政策漂移被定义为“有目的地启动,但……受到干预因素的极大阻碍”的政策过程(第8页)。印度最紧迫的一些安全问题——关键时刻与大国美国和小国斯里兰卡的战略关系,其长期核战略,以及它在保护印度公民免受跨境恐怖主义侵害方面的不完整记录——构成了本书的经验基础。Basrur对这些案例中政策漂移的国内决定因素的关注,将《次大陆漂移》与为数不多(尽管在不断增长)的现有作品放在了一个多产的公司中,这些作品认真地考虑了印度国内背景如何产生和塑造其外交政策。Basrur澄清说,政策漂移不同于“政策瘫痪”或无目的(第7页)。政策漂移有一个方向,但不会移动,或者只是以缓慢或蜿蜒的方式移动。这是一个重要的澄清:印度国内外对印度外交政策矛盾的看法,用政策漂移来解释比用政策偏好来解释更好吗?例如,……
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Gambling on India's Foreign Policy: The Importance of Implementation
Gambling on India's Foreign Policy:The Importance of Implementation Kate Sullivan de Estrada (bio) As Indian prime minister Narendra Modi ricocheted around the globe in mid-2023—welcomed in Japan and Australia in May, embraced in a four-day state visit to the United States in June, and celebrated as the guest of honor at France's Bastille Day parade in July—newspapers and policy journals brimmed with India analysis. Confronted by the hype around Modi as a metonym for India's growing power and influence, rising uneasiness about the future of Indian democracy under his watch, and New Delhi's equivocal position on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, much of the commentary framed intensified relations with India through the metaphor of a "gamble." Ashley Tellis began with an analysis of "America's bad bet on India" in Foreign Affairs in early May, arguing that the deepening defense relationship between Washington and New Delhi was unlikely to lead to India partnering with the United States in a military coalition against China.1 Later that month, Christophe Jaffrelot argued in Le Monde that "betting on India is a short-sighted strategy for France," highlighting concerning domestic political trends and describing Indian democracy as "literally put on hold" between elections that are no longer fair.2 By July, Financial Times commentator Martin Wolf had concluded both that "Western leaders are making a sensible bet on India" because of its economic growth prospects and that "Modi's India is moving in an illiberal direction."3 Other analysts [End Page 120] questioned whether India's rise was "inevitable" and if it would be best to deal with India "as it is, not as we might like it to be."4 Anyone interested in these questions would benefit from reading Rajesh Basrur's careful and rigorous book Subcontinental Drift: Domestic Politics and India's Foreign Policy. Rather than assessing India's policy achievements and failures through the lens of the United States' imperative to counterbalance China in its systemic challenge or India's democratic potential to support the values-based construction of the Indo-Pacific as "free and open," Subcontinental Drift's start and end point is New Delhi. Basrur's interest is "the central concerns of Indian national security strategy" (p. 28) and, more specifically, the ability of the Indian state "to ensure the security of its people" (p. 24). Importantly—and this is where the book's emphasis on "drift" comes in—his focus is less on the formation of domestic policy preferences and more on whether policymakers are able or willing to make good on those preferences once they have been formed (p. 23). The study's overall conclusion is sobering: "India's potential for achieving major power status stands on a relatively weak foundation, owing to its inability to follow through on those policies that are crucial to its security" (p. 193). Subcontinental Drift's point of departure is the observation that "Indian foreign policy has often been characterized by multiple hesitations, delays, and diversions" (p. 181). This justifies the volume's analytical focus on the domestic drivers of policy drift, which is defined as a policy process "initiated purposefully but…greatly impeded by intervening factors" (p. 8). Some of India's most pressing security concerns—its strategic relationships with the major-power United States and smaller-power Sri Lanka at pivotal moments, its long-term nuclear strategy, and its patchy record on protecting Indian citizens from cross-border terrorism—form the empirical substrate of the book. Basrur's focus on the domestic determinants of policy drift in each of these cases positions Subcontinental Drift in productive company with a small, though growing, number of existing works that take seriously how India's domestic context gives rise to and shapes its foreign policies. Policy drift is different, Basrur clarifies, from "policy paralysis" or purposelessness (p. 7). Where policy drifts, it has a direction but does not travel or travels only in a slow or meandering fashion. This is a weighty clarification to make: Are perceptions of Indian foreign policy ambivalence [End Page 121] both within and outside India better explained by policy drift by than policy preference? For example, does...
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Asia Policy
Asia Policy Arts and Humanities-History
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期刊介绍: Asia Policy is a peer-reviewed scholarly journal presenting policy-relevant academic research on the Asia-Pacific that draws clear and concise conclusions useful to today’s policymakers.
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