Analyzing the Impacts of Gasoline Price Change on Nationwide Trip Demand and Drivers’ Behavior Using Regression Discontinuity Design

Gasoline is one of the essential commodities in today's societies and its price can affect different aspects of citizens' lives. This article studies the impacts of the sudden increase in gasoline price on the volume of intercity traffic at national and provincial scales, along with the changes in driving speed distribution and the percentage of speeding violations. The studied period includes four months in two consecutive years. Data was collected from more than 2400 loop detectors placed on the roads of 31 provinces of Iran. This data is used for implementing Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) on traffic volume and speeding violation percentage. Statistical measures of speed distribution are also used to examine changes in driving speed. According to the literature, the optimal driving speed for fuel consumption is about 50 to 70 km/h. This study showed a 7.4% increase in the probability of driving in the 50 to 70 km/h range after the price increase. Also, according to research results, the volume of intercity traffic and the percentage of speeding violations has decreased due to the rise in gasoline price.