地缘政治新现实下的全球煤炭市场

Andrey A. Sizov
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摘要

目前,全球煤炭市场受到几个相互矛盾的因素的影响,这有助于煤炭能源在未来的世界经济中仍将发挥重要作用。特别是,新的技术解决方案可以显著减少对环境的负面影响(CCUS, HELE)。俄罗斯煤炭工业在全球煤炭市场上发挥着重要作用,尽管受到西方的制裁,但由于出口流量转向东方,俄罗斯煤炭工业正在蓬勃发展。为了巩固俄罗斯在全球市场上的领先地位,我们认为有必要通过组建煤炭出口国联盟(ACE)来实现联合煤炭生产国的想法。煤炭出口商联盟的成立将有助于提高全球煤炭市场的整体可控性和世界煤炭价格的可预测性,这将符合煤炭供应国和消费国的利益。上海合作组织(SCO)联合了一些主要的煤炭供应商和消费者,可以成为建立煤炭出口国联盟的制度基础。由于上海合作组织的地缘政治和军事政治潜力日益增长,以及欧亚大陆煤炭生产国之间的相互协调,未加入该组织的出口国将无法挑战上海合作组织的能源部分。
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The Global Coal Market in New Geopolitical Realities
Currently, the global coal market is influenced by several conflicting factors, which contribute to the fact that coal energy will retain a significant role in the world economy in future. In particular, the negative impact on the environment can be significantly reduced with new technological solutions (CCUS, HELE). An important role in the global coal market is played by the Russian coal industry, which, despite West-ern sanctions, is developing dynamically, including due to the redirection of export flows to the east. To consol-idate Russia's leading position in the global market, in our opinion, it is necessary to implement the idea of unit-ing coal-producing countries by forming the Alliance of Coal Exporters (ACE). The creation of the Alliance of Coal Exporters will help to increase the degree of controllability of the global coal market as a whole and the predictability of world coal prices, which will meet the interests of both suppliers and consumers of coal. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which unites a number of leading suppliers and con-sumers of this type of fuel, could become the institutional basis for the creation of the Alliance of Coal Export-ers. The exporters remaining outside the organization will not be able to challenge the energy component of the SCO, with its growing geopolitical and military-political potential and mutual coordination of the Eurasian countries – coal producers.
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