数字服务贸易对世界地区经济增长的动态和静态影响

Richard Mulenga
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摘要

该研究考察了2005年至2021年间,来自非洲、亚洲、拉丁美洲、欧洲和经济合作与发展组织(OECD)五(5)个世界地区的面板数据对数字服务贸易对经济增长的影响。本研究采用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型作为动态估计量,固定效应(FE)模型作为静态估计量的定量实验方法。PVAR模型分析表明,数字服务贸易对所有五个地区的国内生产总值(GDP)增长都有显著的长期积极影响。数字服务贸易每增长1%,经合组织地区的GDP增长6.75%,其次是欧洲,增长3.19%,拉丁美洲增长2.11%,亚洲增长1.02%,非洲地区最低,为0.82%。静态有限元分析也显示了类似的结果。这些发现证实了互联网/数字深度渗透对数字服务贸易效率产生积极影响的假设。因此,该研究建议,发展中国家的政策制定者应增加对数字深化基础设施的投资,其中应包括促进扩大农村地区数字基础设施设施的政策和监管措施,发展数字技能以减轻数字文盲,并促进采用尖端数字技术。
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Dynamic and Static Effects of Digital Services Trading on Economic Growth of World Regions
The study examines the effect of digital services trading on the economic growth of panel data from five (5) world regions, namely, Africa, Asia, Latin America, Europe, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) between 2005 and 2021. The study employs quantitative experimental methods of Panel vector autoregression (PVAR) models as dynamic estimators and the Fixed Effects (FE) models as static estimators. The PVAR model analyses indicate that the digital services trade has a significant positive long-run effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in all five regions. For every 1% increase in digital services trade, GDP in the OECD region increases by 6.75%, followed by Europe at 3.19%, 2.11% in Latin America, 1.02% in Asia, and is lowest in the African region panel at 0.82%. The static FE analyses also shows similar results. These findings confirm the hypothesis that deep internet/digital penetration positively impacts the efficiency of digital services trade. The study, therefore, recommends that policymakers from developing world regions should increase investments in digital deepening infrastructure which should include among others, promoting, policy and regulatory measures that augment digital infrastructure installations in rural places, developing the digital skills to mitigate digital illiteracy, and promoting the adoption of cutting-edge digital technologies.
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