伊朗东南部地区绵羊、山羊、牛和骆驼布鲁氏菌病的贝叶斯真实流行率估计。

IF 2.4 2区农林科学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Zoonoses and Public Health Pub Date : 2023-11-17 DOI:10.1111/zph.13095

Eleftherios Meletis, Ehsanollah Sakhaee, Polychronis Kostoulas

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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的和方法:布鲁氏菌病是世界范围内最流行的人畜共患疾病之一，对家畜造成严重的公共卫生危害，并造成经济损失。本研究的目的是估计布鲁氏菌病在牲畜，特别是牛、绵羊、山羊和骆驼中的真实流行，使用一种新的贝叶斯潜类模型，调整所应用测试的不完善的灵敏度和特异性，其中第二次测试仅限于第一次测试阳性的样本。结果:布鲁氏菌病似乎在山羊和绵羊中更为流行，绵羊、山羊、牛和骆驼的平均真实患病率的后中位数和95%概率区间(95% PI)分别为18%(4%-43%)、19%(7%-37%)、16%(5%-34%)和18%(1%-48%)。结论:研究结果表明，布鲁氏菌病在伊朗高度流行，需要采取关键步骤来控制和提高对该疾病高度公共卫生关注的认识。

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Bayesian true prevalence estimation of brucellosis in sheep, goats, cattle and camels in southeast regions of Iran

Aims and Methods

Brucellosis is worldwide one of the most prevalent zoonotic diseases with serious public health hazard affecting domestic livestock and causing economic losses. Objective of this study is to estimate the true prevalence of brucellosis in livestock, specifically cattle, sheep, goats and camels, using a novel Bayesian latent class model, adjusting for the imperfect sensitivity and specificity of the applied tests, where the second test was restricted only to first test-positive samples.

Results

Brucellosis seems more prevalent in goats and sheep, while the posterior medians and 95% probability intervals (95% PI) for the average true prevalence for sheep, goats, cattle and camels are 18% (4%–43%), 19% (7%–37%), 16% (5%–34%) and 18% (1%–48%) respectively.

Conclusions

The study results indicate that brucellosis is highly endemic in Iran and crucial steps are needed to control and raise awareness about the high public health concern of the disease.

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来源期刊

Zoonoses and Public Health 医学-传染病学

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

4.20%

发文量

115

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Zoonoses and Public Health brings together veterinary and human health researchers and policy-makers by providing a venue for publishing integrated and global approaches to zoonoses and public health. The Editors will consider papers that focus on timely collaborative and multi-disciplinary research in zoonoses and public health. This journal provides rapid publication of original papers, reviews, and potential discussion papers embracing this collaborative spirit. Papers should advance the scientific knowledge of the sources, transmission, prevention and control of zoonoses and be authored by scientists with expertise in areas such as microbiology, virology, parasitology and epidemiology. Articles that incorporate recent data into new methods, applications, or approaches (e.g. statistical modeling) which enhance public health are strongly encouraged.