宏观经济的不确定性与管理预测的准确性

IF 2.9 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Journal of Contemporary Accounting & Economics Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jcae.2021.100281
Norio Kitagawa
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究探讨宏观经济不确定性对管理层盈余预测准确性的影响。关注日本管理层的盈利预测,这实际上是强制性的,我发现在宏观经济高度不确定的时期,公司倾向于报告准确的盈利预测。我还发现,宏观经济的不确定性减少了乐观的错误,而不是悲观的错误。这些发现与管理者试图避免错过预测或下调预测的情况一致,因为当宏观经济不确定性很高时,投资者更看重坏消息。与此情景一致的是,进一步的分析表明,在宏观经济高度不确定性的情况下,当企业错过预测或下调预测时,股价会出现更大的下跌。此外,在控制盈余管理的影响后,这些发现是稳健的。这些结果表明,即使宏观经济的不确定性很高,管理预测的有用性也不会降低。
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Macroeconomic uncertainty and management forecast accuracy

This study examines the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on the accuracy of management earnings forecasts. Focusing on Japanese management earnings forecasts, which are effectively mandated, I find that during periods of high macroeconomic uncertainty, firms tend to report accurate earnings forecasts. I also find that macroeconomic uncertainty lessens optimistic but not pessimistic errors. These findings are consistent with the scenario that managers try to avoid missing their forecasts or revising their forecasts downward because investors place greater weight on bad news when macroeconomic uncertainty is high. Consistent with this scenario, additional analyses reveal that firms experience a larger decrease in stock prices when they miss their forecasts or revise their forecasts downward under high macroeconomic uncertainty. Moreover, these findings are robust after controlling for the effect of earnings management. These results suggest that the usefulness of management forecasts does not decrease even when macroeconomic uncertainty is high.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
3.00%
发文量
24
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