欧元体系的货币政策问题

Lars E.O Svensson
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引用次数: 211

摘要

本文讨论了欧元体系的通货膨胀目标制和货币目标制之间的选择,宣布的欧元体系战略,政策决策的适当框架,欧洲货币联盟的汇率管理,以及欧元体系的问责制和透明度。宣布的货币战略存在缺陷,因为它提出了一个本质上无关紧要的货币增长指标在分析和沟通中的突出作用,但却将通胀预测保密,而通胀预测实际上将成为政策决策的决定性输入。对欧元体系政策决定进行有效的外部监督和评估,似乎需要公布通胀预测、管理委员会会议纪要和投票记录。
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Monetary policy issues for the Eurosystem

The paper discusses the choice between inflation targeting and monetary targeting for the Eurosystem, the announced Eurosystem strategy, the appropriate framework for policy decisions, exchange rate management in the EMU, and Eurosystem accountability and transparency. The announced monetary strategy is deficient, since it proposes a prominent role for an essentially irrelevant money-growth indicator in analysis and communication, but will keep secret the inflation forecast that will, in practice, be the decisive input in policy decisions. Effective outside monitoring and evaluation of Eurosystem policy decisions seem to require published inflation forecasts and Governing Council minutes and voting records.

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