错误诊断的感知风险对COVID-19检测偏好的影响:来自美国的证据

IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-11-23 DOI:10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100455
Tomás Rossetti , Ricardo A. Daziano
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引用次数: 0

摘要

家庭抗原(快速)检测已在许多国家成功部署,以快速检测COVID-19病例。尽管抗原检测有多种优势,但它们往往比聚合酶链反应(PCR)检测有更高的误诊率。由于个体倾向于非线性地处理风险,因此需要一种特别的方法来充分评估测试特征的偏好。在本文中,我们提出了一种基于随机效用最大化和前景理论元素的方法,该方法在考虑假阳性或阴性结果的客观概率和感知概率之间的差异的同时,产生不同测试属性的支付意愿估计。我们使用这种方法来分析美国COVID-19测试的既定偏好数据。结果表明,平均而言,低概率被低估,中程概率被高估。我们还发现假阳性结果比假阴性结果更令人负担,这表明在我们的样本中存在一定程度的故意无知(Ehrich和Irwin, 2005)。最后,我们的研究结果表明,受访者倾向于选择周转时间更快、侵入性更小的收集方法。在一个案例研究中,我们展示了如何使用我们的结果来评估给定测试的定价。
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The effect of perceived risk of false diagnosis on preferences for COVID-19 testing: Evidence from the United States

At-home antigen (rapid) tests have been successfully deployed in many countries to quickly detect COVID-19 cases. Whereas antigen tests have multiple advantages, they tend to have higher rates of false diagnosis than polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests. Since individuals tend to process risk non-linearly, an ad-hoc method is required to adequately assess preferences for test features. In this paper, we propose a methodology based on random utility maximization and elements of prospect theory that produces willingness-to-pay estimates for different test attributes while accounting for differences between objective and perceived probabilities of false positive or negative results. We use this methodology to analyze stated preference data for COVID-19 tests in the United States. Results show that, on average, low probabilities were underestimated and mid-range probabilities were overestimated. We also found that false positive results were more burdensome than false negative outcomes, which shows that there is a degree of willful ignorance (Ehrich and Irwin, 2005) in our sample. Finally, our findings indicate that respondents tended to prefer tests with faster turn-around times and less invasive collection methods. In a case study, we show how our results can be used to assess pricing for a given test.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
31
期刊最新文献
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