在气候变化的背景下,喜马拉雅社区如何改变耕作方式

Q1 Social Sciences Regional Sustainability Pub Date : 2023-11-24 DOI:10.1016/j.regsus.2023.11.001
Ashma Subedi, Nani Raut, Smriti Gurung
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化可能对作物产量和粮食安全产生重大影响。这项研究评估了气候变化与作物产量之间的联系,以便更好地了解粮食安全的驱动因素。该研究在尼泊尔Lamjung区的Pasagaun村进行,采用住户调查和焦点小组讨论(fgd)来收集包括作物种植、灌溉设施和适应战略在内的数据。此外,从Khudi Bazar气象站收集了1992 - 2020年的气候数据(温度和降水),从农业企业促进和统计司获得了作物产量数据。利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Sen’s Slope法对气温和降水进行趋势分析,结果表明,年平均气温增加约0.02°C/a,年降水量减少约9.84 mm/a。传统水稻和谷子品种的种植已经消失。最高气温对水稻和玉米产量的影响不显著,但回归分析表明,水稻产量与年最低气温呈负相关(r = - 0.44),谷子产量与年降水量呈负相关(r = - 0.30),玉米产量与年最低气温呈负相关(r = - 0.31),水稻产量与年降水量呈正相关(r = 0.16)。2000-2020年,水稻和谷子平均产量分别下降了27.0%和57.0%。尽管作物产量下降还有其他原因,如缺乏灌溉设施、农民向外迁移和虫害增加,但受访者已采取适应策略(例如,改变种植时间和改变作物类型),以尽量减少气候变化的影响。由于有效的适应应对策略仍然不足,需要更多的调查和以社区为基础的农业教育来了解和减轻气候变化对作物产量的有害影响。这项研究为在气候变化面前保持粮食安全所必需的适应战略提供了见解。
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How Himalayan communities are changing cultivation practices in the context of climate change

Climate change can have significant impacts on crop yields and food security. This study assessed the linkages between climate change and crop yields to obtain a better understanding on the drivers of food security. The study was conducted in Pasagaun village of Lamjung District in Nepal, where household surveys and focus group discussions (FGDs) were used to collect data including crop cultivation, irrigation facilities, and adaptation strategies. Moreover, climate data (temperature and precipitation) from 1992 to 2020 were collected from the Khudi Bazar meteorological station and crop yield data were obtained from the Agri-Business Promotion and Statistics Division. Trend analysis of temperature and precipitation was conducted using Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's Slope method, and the results showed an increase in the average temperature of approximately 0.02 ​°C/a and a decrease in the annual precipitation of 9.84 mm/a. The cultivation of traditional varieties of rice and foxtail millet (Kaguno) has vanished. Although, there was no significant impact of the maximum temperature on the yield of rice and maize, the regression analysis revealed that there are negative relationships between rice yield and annual minimum temperature (r ​= ​−0.44), between millet yield and annual precipitation (r ​= ​−0.30), and between maize yield and annual minimum temperature (r ​= ​−0.31) as well as positive relationship between rice yield and annual precipitation (r ​= ​0.16). Moreover, average rice yield and millet yield have decreased by 27.0% and 57.0% in 2000–2020, respectively. Despite other reasons for the decrease in crop yield such as the lack of irrigation facilities, out-migration of farmer, and increased pest infestation, respondents have adopted adaptation strategies (for example, shifts in cultivation time and changes in crop types) to minimize the impacts of climate change. More investigation and community-based farming education are needed to understand and alleviate the harmful impacts of climate change on crop yield, as effective adaptation coping strategies are still insufficient. This study provides insights into the adaptation strategies that are necessary to keep food security in the face of climate change.

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来源期刊
Regional Sustainability
Regional Sustainability Social Sciences-Urban Studies
CiteScore
3.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
20
审稿时长
21 weeks
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