Regional Sustainability最新文献

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of runoff in Tajikistan and its driving mechanisms under climate change 气候变化下塔吉克斯坦径流时空异质性及其驱动机制

Q1 Social Sciences

Regional Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100297

Chunlan LI , Yang YU , Lingxiao SUN , Jing HE , Yuanbo LU , Zengkun GUO , Gonghuan FANG , Alexandr ULMAN , Vitaliy SALNIKOV , Ireneusz MALIK , Małgorzata WISTUBA

Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024, this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation, Mann–Kendall (M–K) trend test, as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analyses to systematically examine the spatiotemporal patterns of runoff and its climatic driving mechanisms across Tajikistan, providing a scientific basis for sustainable water resource utilization and management in the study area. Results indicated that during 2000–2024, the annual runoff in Tajikistan exhibited statistically non-significant long-term trend (P=0.76), while displaying pronounced seasonal variability and strong spatial heterogeneity. Spring and summer average runoff primarily exhibited slight declining tendencies, while winter average runoff exhibited pronounced reduction in localized regions, such as the Syr Darya Basin, the Vakhsh River Basin, and the lower reaches of the Zeravshan River Basin. Precipitation emerged as the dominant positive driver of runoff, exhibiting moderate to strong positive correlations across over 78.00% of the country, whereas potential evapotranspiration consistently functioned as a negative driver. Rising temperatures exerted a dual competitive effect on runoff: in high-elevation, glacier-covered regions, rising temperatures temporarily increased runoff by accelerating glacier melt; however, at the national scale, the negative impact of rising temperature on runoff has played a slightly dominant role to a certain extent by enhancing evapotranspiration. Collectively, these results indicated that the present stability of runoff in Tajikistan is strongly dependent on the short-term compensatory effects of glacier melt and the risk of future runoff decline is likely to intensify as glacier reserves continue to diminish. This study provides a critical scientific evidence to inform sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan and underscores the need for glacier conservation and integrated water resource management strategies.

基于2000-2024年的月径流和气候数据集，采用Theil-Sen坡度估算、Mann-Kendall （M-K）趋势检验、Pearson相关和Spearman秩相关分析，系统研究塔吉克斯坦径流时空格局及其气候驱动机制，为研究区水资源可持续利用和管理提供科学依据。结果表明：2000-2024年，塔吉克斯坦年径流量表现出不显著的长期趋势（P=0.76），但表现出明显的季节变异和较强的空间异质性。春、夏季平均径流量主要呈轻微下降趋势，冬季平均径流量在Syr Darya流域、Vakhsh河流域和Zeravshan河下游等局部区域呈明显减少趋势。降水是径流的主要正驱动因素，在全国78.00%以上的地区表现出中等至强烈的正相关，而潜在蒸散发一直是径流的负驱动因素。气温上升对径流产生了双重竞争效应：在高海拔、冰川覆盖的地区，气温上升通过加速冰川融化暂时增加了径流；但在国家尺度上，气温上升对径流的负面影响在一定程度上通过增加蒸散发挥了略占优势的作用。总的来说，这些结果表明，塔吉克斯坦目前径流的稳定性强烈依赖于冰川融化的短期补偿效应，随着冰川储量的继续减少，未来径流下降的风险可能会加剧。这项研究为塔吉克斯坦的可持续水资源管理提供了重要的科学证据，并强调了冰川保护和综合水资源管理战略的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

Risks of snow drought and impacts on streamflow in Tajikistan 塔吉克斯坦积雪干旱的风险及其对河流的影响

Q1 Social Sciences

Regional Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100298

Yupeng LI , Yaning CHEN , Fei WANG , Xiang ZHANG , Qifei ZHANG , Fan SUN , Gonghuan FANG , Safarkhon SHAROFIDDINOV , Jafar NIYAZOV

Tajikistan, a mountainous country and a vital water tower for Central Asia, is becoming increasingly vulnerable to snow drought under climate change, threatening its snow- and glacier-fed streamflow. Yet, the impacts of snow drought on the regional hydrology remain insufficiently understood. In this study, we integrated multisource data, including the Fifth Generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Atmospheric Reanalysis for Land Applications (ERA5-Land) data and hydrological station data, to systematically assess the snow drought patterns and their impacts on streamflow during 1950–2023. We identified snow drought events based on precipitation and snow fraction anomalies relative to climatological means and classified them into warm snow drought, dry snow drought, and warm&dry snow drought. The results revealed that snow drought was a recurrent phenomenon, occurring in 51.70% of the years during the study period, with warm&dry snow drought accounting for 21.90% of the total events. Both the frequency and severity exhibited pronounced spatial variability, largely governed by the elevation and snowfall fraction. Specifically, the frequency of warm snow drought was negatively correlated with the snowfall fraction, decreasing on average by 0.20 per unit increase in snowfall fraction, whereas the frequency of dry snow drought was positively correlated, increasing by 0.07 per unit increase. The streamflow analysis results demonstrated that snow drought typically reduced the warm-season discharge by 5.00%–18.00% in certain rivers, thereby exacerbating the water stress during the dry season. The results of this study advance our understanding by explicitly linking the types of snow drought to hydrological responses in Central Asia’s high mountains, providing a scientific basis for climate adaptation and sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan.

塔吉克斯坦是一个多山的国家，也是中亚重要的水塔，在气候变化的影响下，它越来越容易受到雪旱的影响，威胁到它的雪和冰川供应的河流。然而，雪旱对区域水文的影响尚不清楚。本研究利用欧洲第五代中期天气预报中心（ERA5-Land）资料和水文站资料，系统评估了1950-2023年雪旱模式及其对河流流量的影响。我们根据降水和雪率异常与气候资料的关系确定了雪干旱事件，并将其分为暖雪干旱、干雪干旱和暖干雪干旱。结果表明，雪旱是一种周期性现象，在研究期间发生的年份占51.70%，其中暖干雪旱占总事件的21.90%。其发生频率和严重程度均表现出明显的空间变异性，主要受海拔和降雪量的影响。其中，暖雪干旱频率与降雪量呈负相关，每增加一个单位降雪量平均减少0.20次，而干雪干旱频率则呈正相关，每增加一个单位增加0.07次。径流分析结果表明，雪旱典型地使暖季流量减少了5.00% ~ 18.00%，从而加剧了旱季的水资源压力。本研究结果通过明确地将中亚高山积雪干旱类型与水文响应联系起来，促进了我们的认识，为塔吉克斯坦气候适应和可持续水资源管理提供了科学依据。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of green energy development on climate change mitigation 绿色能源发展对减缓气候变化的影响

Q1 Social Sciences

Regional Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100292

Kobiljon Khushvakht KHUSHVAKHTZODA , Ilkhom Burkhonovich MAKHSUMOV , Muzaffar Boynazarovich KHOLNAZAROV , Irina Mikhailovna KIRPICHNIKOVA

This study examined the role of green energy development in mitigating climate change and fostering sustainable development in Central Asia including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. The region has substantial untapped potential in solar energy, wind energy, hydropower energy, as well as biomass and bioenergy, positioning it strategically for renewable energy deployment. The result demonstrated that integrating renewable energy can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality, enhance energy security, and support rural development. Case studies from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan showed measurable environmental and economic benefits. However, the large-scale use of renewable energy still faces numerous barriers, including outdated infrastructure, fragmented regulatory frameworks, limited investment, and shortages of technical expertise. Overcoming these obstacles requires institutional reform, stronger regional cooperation, and increasing engagement from international financial institutions and private investors. Modernizing grids, deploying storage systems, and investing in education, research, and innovation are critical for building human capacity in renewable energy sector. Accelerating the renewable energy transition is essential for Central Asia to meet climate goals, enhance environmental resilience, and ensure long-term socioeconomic development through innovation, investment, and regional collaboration.

本研究考察了绿色能源发展在中亚（包括哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和土库曼斯坦）减缓气候变化和促进可持续发展方面的作用。该地区在太阳能、风能、水能、生物质能和生物质能方面具有巨大的未开发潜力，具有可再生能源部署的战略地位。结果表明，整合可再生能源可以减少温室气体排放，改善空气质量，增强能源安全，并支持农村发展。哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦的案例研究显示了可衡量的环境和经济效益。然而，可再生能源的大规模使用仍然面临许多障碍，包括过时的基础设施、分散的监管框架、有限的投资和技术专长的短缺。克服这些障碍需要机构改革、加强区域合作以及增加国际金融机构和私人投资者的参与。实现电网现代化、部署储能系统以及投资于教育、研究和创新，对于建设可再生能源领域的人力能力至关重要。加快可再生能源转型对于中亚实现气候目标、增强环境韧性、通过创新、投资和区域合作确保长期社会经济发展至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Coupling dynamics of SDGs in Tajikistan from 2001 to 2023 2001 - 2023年塔吉克斯坦可持续发展目标的耦合动态

Q1 Social Sciences

Regional Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100295

Ranna HAZIHAN , Hongru DU , Chuanchuan HE , Kobiljon Khushvakht KHUSHVAKHTZODA , Bobozoda KOMIL

Since the United Nations launched the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, global implementation has steadily advanced, yet prominent challenges persist. Progress has been uneven across regions and countries, with Tajikistan representing a typical example of such disparities. Based on 81 SDG indicators for Tajikistan from 2001 to 2023, this study applied a three-level coupling network framework: at the microscale, it identified synergies and trade-offs between indicators; at the mesoscale, it examined the strength and direction of linkages within four SDG-related components (society, finance, governance, and environment); and at the global level, it focused on the overall SDG interlinkages. Spearman’s rank correlation, sliding window method, and topological properties were employed to analyze the coupling dynamics of SDGs. Results showed that over 70.00% of associations in the global SDG network were of medium-to-low intensity, alongside extremely strong ones (|r| value approached 1.00, where r is the correlation coefficient). SDG interactions were generally limited, with stable local synergy clusters in core livelihood sectors. Network modularity fluctuated, reflecting a cycle of differentiation, integration, and fragmentation, while coupling efficiency varied with the external environment. Each component exhibited distinct functional characteristics. The social component maintained high connectivity through the “poverty alleviation-education-healthcare” loop. The environmental component shifted toward coordinated eco-economic governance. The governance-related component broke interdepartmental barriers, while the financial component showed weak links between resource-based indicators and consumption/employment indicators. Tajikistan’s SDG coupling evolved through three phases: survival-oriented (2001–2012), policy integration (2013–2018), and shock adaptation (2019–2023). These phases were driven by policy changes, resource industries, governance optimization, and external factors. This study enriches the analytical framework for understanding the dynamic coupling of SDGs in mountainous resource-dependent countries and provides empirical evidence to support similar countries in formulating phase-specific SDG promotion strategies.

自2015年联合国提出可持续发展目标以来，全球落实工作稳步推进，但挑战依然突出。各区域和国家之间的进展不平衡，塔吉克斯坦就是这种不平衡的典型例子。基于塔吉克斯坦2001年至2023年的81项可持续发展目标指标，本研究应用了一个三级耦合网络框架：在微观尺度上，它确定了指标之间的协同效应和权衡；在中尺度上，研究了四个可持续发展目标相关组成部分（社会、金融、治理和环境）之间联系的强度和方向；在全球层面，它侧重于可持续发展目标的整体相互联系。采用Spearman秩相关法、滑动窗口法和拓扑特性分析可持续发展目标的耦合动态。结果表明，在全球可持续发展目标网络中，超过70.00%的关联强度为中低强度，也有很强的关联（|或|值接近1.00，其中r为相关系数）。可持续发展目标之间的相互作用普遍有限，核心生计部门存在稳定的地方协同集群。网络模块化是波动的，反映了分化、整合、碎片化的循环，耦合效率随外部环境而变化。每个成分都表现出不同的功能特征。社会组成部分通过“扶贫-教育-保健”循环保持高度连通性。环境要素转向协调的生态经济治理。与治理有关的部分打破了部门间的障碍，而财政部分则显示出资源指标与消费/就业指标之间的薄弱联系。塔吉克斯坦的可持续发展目标耦合发展经历了三个阶段：面向生存（2001-2012年）、政策整合（2013-2018年）和冲击适应（2019-2023年）。这些阶段是由政策变化、资源行业、治理优化和外部因素驱动的。本研究丰富了理解山地资源型国家可持续发展目标动态耦合的分析框架，为类似国家制定分阶段可持续发展目标促进战略提供了经验证据。

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引用次数: 0

Spatial differentiation and risk zonation of debris flow hazards in Tajikistan 塔吉克斯坦泥石流灾害的空间分异和风险区划

Q1 Social Sciences

Regional Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100299

Wenjun JIA , Ningsheng CHEN , Yang XUE , Zhihan WANG , Tao WEN , Ru GUO , Safaralizoda NOSIR , Aminjon GULAKHMADOV

Debris flow events are frequent in Tajikistan, yet comprehensive investigations at the regional scale are limited. This study integrates remote sensing, Geographic Information System, and machine learning techniques to evaluate debris flow susceptibility and associated hazards across Tajikistan. A dataset comprising 405 documented debris flow points and 14 influencing factors, encompassing geological, climatic-hydrological, and anthropogenic variables, was established. Three machine learning algorithms—Random Forest, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multi-layer Perceptron—were applied to generate susceptibility maps and delineate debris flow risk zones. The results indicate that the areas of higher and high susceptibility accounted for 20.43% and 4.41% of the national area, respectively, and were predominantly concentrated along the Zeravshan and Vakhsh river basins. Among the evaluated models, SVM model demonstrated the highest predictive performance. Beyond conventional topographic and environmental controls, drought conditions were identified as a critical factor influencing debris flow occurrence within the arid and semi-arid mountainous regions of Tajikistan. These findings provide a scientific basis for regional debris flow risk management and disaster mitigation planning, and offer practical guidance for selecting conditioning factors in machine-learning-based susceptibility assessments in other dry mountainous environments.

塔吉克斯坦泥石流事件频发，但在区域尺度上的综合调查有限。本研究整合了遥感、地理信息系统和机器学习技术，以评估塔吉克斯坦的泥石流易感性和相关危害。建立了一个包含405个记录的泥石流点和14个影响因素的数据集，包括地质、气候-水文和人为变量。采用随机森林、支持向量机（SVM）和多层感知器三种机器学习算法生成易感性图并划定泥石流危险区。结果表明：高敏感区和高敏感区分别占全国面积的20.43%和4.41%，主要集中在泽拉夫山河和瓦赫什河流域；在评价的模型中，SVM模型的预测性能最高。除了传统的地形和环境控制之外，干旱条件被确定为影响塔吉克斯坦干旱和半干旱山区泥石流发生的一个关键因素。这些研究结果为区域泥石流风险管理和减灾规划提供了科学依据，并为其他干旱山地环境中基于机器学习的易感性评估选择条件因子提供了实践指导。

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引用次数: 0

Water resources and sustainable management in Tajikistan under global change 全球变化下塔吉克斯坦的水资源和可持续管理

Q1 Social Sciences

Regional Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100291

Yaning CHEN , Gonghuan FANG , Zhi LI , Xueqi ZHANG , Weihong LI , Nekruz GULAHMADOV , Farhod NASRULLOEV , Aminjon GULAKHMADOV

As a major source of freshwater in Central Asia, Tajikistan is endowed with abundant glaciers and water resources. However, the country faces multiple challenges, including accelerated glacier retreat, complex inter-government water resource management, and inefficient water use. Existing research has predominantly focused on individual hydrological processes, such as glacier retreat, snow cover change, or transboundary water issues, but it has yet to fully capture the overall complexity of water system. Tajikistan’s water system functions as an integrated whole from mountain runoff to downstream supply, but a comprehensive study of its water resource has yet to be conducted. To address this research gap, this study systematically examined the status, challenges, and sustainable management strategies of Tajikistan’s water resources based on a literature review, remote sensing data analysis, and case studies. Despite Tajikistan’s relative abundance of water resources, global warming is accelerating glacier melting and altering the hydrological cycles, which have resulted in unstable runoff patterns and heightened risks of extreme events. In Tajikistan, outdated infrastructure and poor management are primary causes of low water-use efficiency in the agricultural sector, which accounts for 85.00% of the total water withdrawals. At the governance level, Tajikistan faces challenges in balancing the water-energy-food nexus and transboundary water resource issues. To address these issues, this study proposes core paths for Tajikistan to achieve sustainable water resource management, such as accelerating technological innovation, promoting water-saving agricultural technologies, improving water resource utilization efficiency, and establishing a community participation-based comprehensive management framework. Additionally, strengthening cross-border cooperation and improving real-time monitoring systems have been identified as critical steps to advance sustainable water resource utilization and evidence-based decision-making in Tajikistan and across Central Asia.

塔吉克斯坦是中亚主要淡水来源国，冰川和水资源丰富。然而，该国面临着多重挑战，包括冰川加速退缩、复杂的政府间水资源管理以及低效的水资源利用。现有的研究主要集中在单个水文过程，如冰川退缩、积雪变化或跨界水问题，但尚未充分捕捉到水系统的整体复杂性。塔吉克斯坦的水系统从山区径流到下游供水是一个整体，但对其水资源的全面研究尚未开展。为了弥补这一研究空白，本研究在文献综述、遥感数据分析和案例研究的基础上，系统地研究了塔吉克斯坦水资源的现状、挑战和可持续管理策略。尽管塔吉克斯坦水资源相对丰富，但全球变暖正在加速冰川融化，改变水文循环，导致径流模式不稳定，极端事件风险增加。在塔吉克斯坦，落后的基础设施和管理不善是农业部门用水效率低的主要原因，农业部门占总取水量的85.00%。在管理一级，塔吉克斯坦在平衡水-能源-粮食关系和跨界水资源问题方面面临挑战。针对这些问题，本研究提出了塔吉克斯坦实现水资源可持续管理的核心路径，如加快技术创新、推广节水农业技术、提高水资源利用效率、建立基于社区参与的综合管理框架等。此外，加强跨境合作和改进实时监测系统已被确定为在塔吉克斯坦和整个中亚推进水资源可持续利用和循证决策的关键步骤。

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引用次数: 0

Hydrological change trends of the Surkhob and Khingov river basins in the Vakhsh River of Tajikistan under climate change 气候变化下塔吉克斯坦瓦赫什河流域Surkhob和Khingov流域水文变化趋势

Q1 Social Sciences

Regional Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100300

Nasrulloev FARHOD , Yaning CHEN , Sheralizoda NAZRIALO , Gulahmadov NEKRUZ , Shobairi SEYED OMID REZA , Murodov MURODKHUJA

The hydrological system in Central Asia is highly sensitive to global climate change, significantly affecting water supply and energy production. In Tajikistan, the Vakhsh River—one of the main tributaries of the Amu Darya—plays a key role in the region’s hydropower and irrigation. However, research on long-term hydrological changes in its two top large basins—the Surkhob and Khingov river basins—remains limited. Therefore, this study analyzed long-term climate and hydrological changes in the Vakhsh River, including its main tributaries—the Surkhob and Khingov rivers—which are vital for the water resource management in Tajikistan and even in Central Asia. Using long-term hydrometeorological observations, the change trends of temperature (1933–2020), precipitation (1970–2020), and runoff (1940–2018) were examined to assess the impact of climate change on the regional water resources. The analysis revealed the occurrence of significant warming and a spatially uneven increase in precipitation. The temperature changes across three climatic periods (1933–1960, 1960–1990, and 1990–2020) indicated that there was a transition from baseline level to accelerated warming. The precipitation showed a 2.99 mm/a increase in the Khingov River Basin and a 2.80 mm/a increase in the Surkhob River Basin during 1970–2020. Moreover, there was a gradual shift toward wetter conditions in recent decades. Despite the relatively stable annual mean runoff, seasonal redistribution occurred, with increased runoff in spring and reduced runoff in summer, due to the compensation of glacier melting. Moreover, this study forecasted runoff change during 2019–2040 using the exponential triple smoothing (ETS) method and revealed the occurrence of alternating wet and dry phases, emphasizing the sensitivity of the Vakhsh River Basin’s hydrological system to climate change and the necessity of adaptive water resource management in mountainous regions of Central Asia. Therefore, this study can provide evidence-based insights that are critical for future water resources planning, climate-resilient hydropower development, and regional adaptation strategies in climate-vulnerable basins in Central Asia.

中亚的水文系统对全球气候变化高度敏感，对供水和能源生产产生重大影响。在塔吉克斯坦，阿姆河的主要支流之一瓦赫什河（Vakhsh river）在该地区的水电和灌溉中发挥着关键作用。然而，对其两个最大的流域——苏尔霍布河和欣戈夫河流域的长期水文变化的研究仍然有限。因此，本研究分析了瓦赫什河的长期气候和水文变化，包括其主要支流苏尔霍布河和欣戈夫河，这两条河对塔吉克斯坦乃至中亚的水资源管理至关重要。利用长期水文气象观测资料，分析了气温（1933-2020年）、降水（1970-2020年）和径流（1940-2018年）的变化趋势，以评估气候变化对区域水资源的影响。分析表明，出现了显著的变暖现象，降水的增加在空间上不均匀。三个气候期（1933-1960年、1960-1990年和1990-2020年）的温度变化表明从基线水平向加速变暖过渡。1970—2020年，Khingov河流域降水增加2.99 mm/a， Surkhob河流域降水增加2.80 mm/a。此外，近几十年来气候逐渐向湿润的方向转变。尽管年平均径流量相对稳定，但由于冰川融化的补偿，出现了春季径流量增加、夏季径流量减少的季节性再分配。此外，本研究利用指数三重平滑（ETS）方法预测了2019-2040年流域径流变化，揭示了干湿交替期的发生，强调了瓦赫什河流域水文系统对气候变化的敏感性和中亚山区适应性水资源管理的必要性。因此，本研究可以为中亚气候脆弱流域未来的水资源规划、气候适应型水电开发和区域适应战略提供基于证据的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Grassland ecosystems of Tajikistan: Plant species diversity, ecological restoration, and sustainable management 塔吉克斯坦草原生态系统：植物物种多样性、生态恢复与可持续管理

Q1 Social Sciences

Regional Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100293

Hikmat HISORIEV , Yaoming LI , Wenjun HUANG , Lianlian FAN , Mekhrovar OKHONNIYOZOV , Xuexi MA

Livestock farming is a critical pillar of Tajikistan’s national economy and livelihood security. However, significant economic challenges in the country have led to the degradation of grassland ecosystems. This degradation has not only reduced the productivity of grassland ecosystems but also severely impacted their ecological functions. A particularly concerning consequence is the threat to biodiversity, as the survival and persistence of endemic, rare, and endangered plant species are at serious risk, thereby diminishing the value of species’ genetic resources. Based on the data from multiple sources such as literature reviews, field observations, and national statistics, this study employed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to investigate the current status, causes of degradation, and restoration measures for grassland ecosystems in Tajikistan. The results revealed that Tajikistan’s grassland ecosystems support exceptionally high plant species diversity, comprising over 4500 vascular plant species, including nearly 1500 endemic and sub-endemic taxa that constitute a unique genetic reservoir. These ecosystems are experiencing severe degradation, characterized by significantly reduced vegetation cover and declining species richness. Palatable forage species are increasingly being displaced by unpalatable, thorny, and poisonous species. The primary drivers of degradation include excessive grazing pressure, which disrupts plant reproductive cycles and regeneration capacity, habitat fragmentation due to urbanization and infrastructure development, and uncontrolled exploitation of medicinal and edible plants. Climate change, particularly rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, further exacerbates these anthropogenic pressures. Ecological restoration experiments suggested that both ecosystem productivity and plant species diversity are significantly enhanced by systematic reseeding trials using altitude-adapted native species. These findings underscore the necessity of establishing scientifically grounded approaches for ecological restoration.

畜牧业是塔吉克斯坦国民经济和民生安全的重要支柱。然而，该国重大的经济挑战导致了草原生态系统的退化。这种退化不仅降低了草地生态系统的生产力，而且严重影响了草地生态系统的生态功能。一个特别令人担忧的后果是对生物多样性的威胁，因为地方性、稀有和濒危植物物种的生存和持续受到严重威胁，从而降低了物种遗传资源的价值。本研究基于文献综述、野外观测和国家统计等多种来源的数据，采用系统文献综述和荟萃分析的方法，对塔吉克斯坦草原生态系统的现状、退化原因和恢复措施进行了研究。结果表明，塔吉克斯坦草原生态系统支持的植物物种多样性异常高，有超过4500种维管植物，其中包括近1500个特有和亚特有分类群，构成了一个独特的遗传库。这些生态系统正在经历严重退化，其特征是植被覆盖显著减少，物种丰富度下降。美味的饲料种类越来越多地被难吃的、带刺的和有毒的物种所取代。退化的主要驱动因素包括过度放牧压力（破坏了植物的繁殖周期和再生能力）、城市化和基础设施发展导致的栖息地破碎化，以及对药用和食用植物的不受控制的开发。气候变化，特别是气温上升和降水模式改变，进一步加剧了这些人为压力。生态恢复试验表明，采用适应海拔高度的本地物种进行系统补种试验，可显著提高生态系统生产力和植物物种多样性。这些发现强调了建立有科学依据的生态恢复方法的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

Current status and recent changes of glaciers in Tajikistan 塔吉克斯坦冰川的现状和近期变化

Q1 Social Sciences

Regional Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100296

Chunhai XU , Zhongqin LI , Zhonghua HE , Feiteng WANG , Jianxin MU , Yaning CHEN , Sheralizoda NAZRIALO , Farhod NASRULLOEV , Aminjon GULAHMADZODA

Tajikistan contains the majority of Central Asia’s glaciers, which cover about 6.00% of the national territory; their rapid shrinkage poses a significant threat to regional water resource security. However, glacier monitoring in Tajikistan was interrupted after 1991, creating a substantial gap in understanding the current state and temporal evolution of these glaciers. Based on glacier inventory data, in situ measurements, and published literature, this study examined the present status and recent variations of glaciers in Tajikistan through data integration and validation, literature collation and comparative analysis, and the application of Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis techniques. As of 2023, Tajikistan possesses a total of 11,528 glaciers, encompassing an area of 7624.48 (±305.58) km². Small glaciers dominate in number, whereas large glaciers account for the majority of the total area. Over the past two decades, the glacier count has decreased by 2014, and the total area has decreased by 628.98 km², corresponding to an average annual reduction rate of 0.33%. Regional shrinkage rates range from 4.10% to 22.28%. Glaciers have undergone accelerated mass loss during the past 20 a; only those on the northeastern Pamir Plateau exhibit a weak positive mass balance. Observations of typical monitored glaciers also reveal intensified melting and retreat, consistent with regional trends. In light of the recent acceleration of glacier shrinkage in Tajikistan, focused measures should be implemented to strengthen glacier monitoring, enhance public awareness of glacier preservation, and promote the sustainable development and utilization of glacier tourism. These findings bridge the knowledge gap regarding the spatiotemporal dynamics of Tajikistan’s glaciers over recent decades and provide essential data support for regional water resource management.

塔吉克斯坦拥有中亚大部分冰川，约占国家领土的6.00%；它们的迅速萎缩对区域水资源安全构成重大威胁。然而，塔吉克斯坦的冰川监测在1991年之后中断，在了解这些冰川的现状和时间演变方面造成了很大的差距。本研究基于冰川清查数据、实地测量数据和已发表的文献，通过数据整合与验证、文献整理与对比分析以及地理信息系统（GIS）空间分析技术的应用，对塔吉克斯坦冰川现状和近期变化进行了研究。截至2023年，塔吉克斯坦共有11528座冰川，面积7624.48（±305.58）平方公里。小冰川在数量上占主导地位，而大冰川占总面积的大部分。近20年来，冰川数量到2014年减少，总面积减少628.98 km2，平均每年减少0.33%。区域收缩率为4.10% ~ 22.28%。在过去的20年中，冰川的质量损失加速了；只有帕米尔高原东北部地区表现出微弱的正质量平衡。对典型监测冰川的观测也显示，融化和退缩加剧，与区域趋势一致。鉴于近期塔吉克斯坦冰川萎缩加速，应采取重点措施，加强冰川监测，提高公众对冰川保护的认识，促进冰川旅游的可持续开发利用。这些发现弥补了近几十年来塔吉克斯坦冰川时空动态方面的知识空白，并为区域水资源管理提供了重要的数据支持。

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引用次数: 0

Vascular plant diversity and distribution pattern in Tajikistan: A global hotspot of diversity 塔吉克斯坦维管植物多样性及分布格局：全球多样性研究热点

Q1 Social Sciences

Regional Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100294

Yixin ZHOU , Suliya MA , Wenjun LI , Parvina KURBONOVA , Mariyo BOBOEV , Yufan LI , Hikmat HISORIEV , Keping MA , Weikang YANG , Yuanming ZHANG

Tajikistan represents a core region of the biodiversity hotspot in Central Asian mountains and has exceptional vascular plant diversity. However, the species diversity of the country faces urgent conservation challenges. There has been a lack of a comprehensive and multidimensional assessment to inform strategic conservation planning. Therefore, this study integrated 4 key biodiversity indices including species richness (SR), phylogenetic diversity (PD), threatened species richness (TSR), and endemic species richness (ESR) to map species diversity distribution patterns, identify conservation gaps, and elucidate their effects of climatic factors. This study revealed that species diversity shows a clear trend of decreasing from the western region to the eastern region of Tajikistan. The central–western mountains (specifically the Gissar-Darvasian and Zeravshanian regions) emerge as irreplaceable biodiversity hotspots. However, we found a severe spatial mismatch between these priority areas and the existing protected areas (PAs). Protection coverage for all hotspots was alarmingly low, ranging from 31.00% to 38.00%. Consequently, a critical 64.80% of integrated priority areas fall outside of the current PAs, representing a major conservation gap. This study identified precipitation seasonality and isothermality as the principal drivers, collectively explaining over 50.00% of the diversity variation and suggesting high vulnerability to hydrological shifts. Furthermore, we detected significant geographic sampling bias in the public biodiversity databases, with the most critical hotspot being systematically under-sampled. This study provides a robust scientific basis for conservation action, highlighting the urgent need to strategically expand PAs in the under-protected southwestern region and to mitigate critical sampling gaps through targeted data digitization and field surveys. These measures are indispensable for securing Tajikistan’s unique biodiversity and achieving the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework Target 3 (“30×30 Protection”).

塔吉克斯坦是中亚山区生物多样性热点的核心地区，具有独特的维管植物多样性。然而，该国的物种多样性面临着紧迫的保护挑战。缺乏全面和多维度的评估来为战略性保护规划提供信息。因此，本研究综合了物种丰富度（SR）、系统发育多样性（PD）、濒危物种丰富度（TSR）和特有物种丰富度（ESR） 4个关键生物多样性指标，绘制了物种多样性分布格局，识别了保护缺口，并阐明了其对气候因子的影响。研究表明，塔吉克斯坦物种多样性从西部向东部呈明显的递减趋势。中西部山区（特别是吉萨-达尔瓦西亚和泽拉夫山尼亚地区）成为不可替代的生物多样性热点地区。然而，我们发现这些优先区域与现有保护区之间存在严重的空间不匹配。所有热点的保护覆盖率低得惊人，从31.00%到38.00%不等。因此，64.80%的综合优先区域落在当前保护区之外，这是一个重大的保护缺口。本研究确定降水季节性和等温性是主要驱动因素，它们共同解释了超过50.00%的多样性变化，并表明对水文变化的高度脆弱性。此外，我们在公共生物多样性数据库中发现了显著的地理采样偏差，其中最关键的热点系统采样不足。该研究为保护行动提供了强有力的科学依据，强调了在保护不足的西南地区战略性地扩大保护区的迫切需要，并通过有针对性的数据数字化和实地调查来弥补关键的采样差距。这些措施对于保护塔吉克斯坦独特的生物多样性和实现《昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架》目标3（“30×30保护”）是不可或缺的。

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引用次数: 0