Development and application of a new water-carbon-economy coupling model (WCECM) for optimal allocation of agricultural water and land resources

The optimal allocation of agricultural water and land resources is of great significance in ensuring sustainable food production and economic benefits of farmers. However, agriculture, as an important carbon cycle ecosystem, has paid limited attention to carbon sequestration in the optimal allocation of water and land resources. Therefore, this study developed a new water-carbon-economy coupling model (WCECM) for optimal allocation of agricultural water and land resources. In this model, the minimum water scarcity, maximum carbon sequestration and maximum economic benefits are taken as the optimization objectives. In addition, surface water volume and groundwater volume and planting area etc. were defined as constraints, respectively. Then, the model was solved using the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm III (NSGA-III) and the Entropy-weighted-TOPSIS evaluation method. The developed model was demonstrated in the largest Farm, Youyi Farm, which is one of commercial grain production base in China to analyze the optimization of water and land resources from 2010 to 2019. We found that the new WCECM, based on the simulation of a complex coupled water-carbon-economy system, can realize the optimal allocation of agricultural water and land resources to protect regional water resources, increase carbon sequestration and adjust the agricultural planting structure. In detail, through the multi-objective optimization model, the planting structure and the allocation ratio of surface water and groundwater irrigation water consumption are more suitable for this study area. After the optimization, the area planted with Rice was significantly reduced, the area planted with Maize was increased, and the area planted with Soybean did not change significantly compared with the first two crops. The planting structure has changed from focusing on paddy cultivation to dryland cultivation, with the ratio of Rice area, Maize area and Soybean area being 3:6:1. The water consumption is constrained within manageable limits, with an average annual irrigation water consumption of 2.01 × 10⁸ m³. The amount of carbon sequestered has increased significantly, with an average annual increase of 7.8 × 10⁸ kg. Meanwhile, the optimized economic benefits increased slightly, with a value of ¥2.35 billion. In short, optimization of water and land resources is beneficial for improving farmers' incomes, increasing carbon sequestration in agriculture, and conserving water resources.