Diasporas and Political Instability: Does Geographical Distance Matter?

Many studies have been published during the past decades highlighting the role played by diasporas in conflicts raging in their home countries and on the links between diasporas and international terrorism. Contemporary literature treats the links between diasporas and conflicts in a simplistic manner. For instance, little space is dedicated to determining the effect of diaspora on political instability in the home country. The current study aims to assess the effect of diasporas on political instability in Africa, taking into consideration the role of geographical distance when choosing the destination countries. To achieve this goal, we use two models to test our hypothesis. First, we deploy a gravity model to investigate the destination choice of migrants who build a diaspora. Based on their destination, we then use a fixed effects model and the generalised method of moment (GMM) to analyse the effects of the diaspora on political instability. Overall, we aim to research whether there is a correlation between migrant communities and the political stability in their origin countries. Our findings suggest that diaspora can act as a feedback factor to existing situations by either increasing or decreasing political instability dependent on the initial state the country was in, even though the greatest contribution of diasporas is in terms of peace not of war.