就业保护和生育决定:意大利就业法案的意外后果

IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Economic Policy Pub Date : 2021-08-12 DOI:10.1093/epolic/eiab015
Maria De Paola, Roberto Nisticò, Vincenzo Scoppa
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了就业保护减少对工人生育决策的影响。利用2013-18年意大利劳动力调查的数据,我们分析了2015年被称为“就业法案”的劳动力市场改革对生育倾向的影响,该法案减少了对大公司员工的就业保护,而对小公司基本没有影响。我们采用差异中的差异识别方法,比较了在大公司工作的女性与在小公司工作的女性在生育决策方面的变化。我们发现前者生孩子的概率要低1.4个百分点。一系列稳健性检查证实了这一发现。当可能的排序问题由工具变量方法来解释时,效果也成立。我们记录了年龄、婚姻状况、性别平等和地理区域以及教育和收入的大量异质性影响。我们的研究结果表明,引入更大灵活性的劳动力市场改革可能会加剧职业不安全感,从而对生育率产生潜在的意想不到的后果。
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Employment protection and fertility decisions: the unintended consequences of the Italian Jobs Act
SUMMARY We study the effect of a reduction in employment protection on workers’ fertility decisions. Using data from the Italian Labor Force Survey for 2013–18, we analyse how the propensity to have a child has been affected by the 2015 labour market reform dubbed the ‘Jobs Act’, which reduced employment protection for employees of larger firms while leaving small firms essentially untouched. We take a Difference-in-Differences identification approach and compare the change in fertility decisions of women employed in large firms with that of women in small firms. We find that the former’s probability of having a child is 1.4 percentage points lower. A battery of robustness checks confirms this finding. The effect also holds when possible sorting issues are accounted for by an instrumental variable approach. We document substantial heterogeneous effects by age, marital status, parity and geographical area as well as by education and earnings. Our findings suggest the potential unintended consequences on fertility that labour market reforms introducing greater flexibility may have by heightening career insecurity.
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来源期刊
Economic Policy
Economic Policy ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: Economic Policy provides timely and authoritative analyses of the choices confronting policymakers. The subject matter ranges from the study of how individual markets can and should work to the broadest interactions in the world economy. Economic Policy features: Analysis of key issues as they emerge Views of top international economists Frontier thinking without technical jargon Wide-reaching coverage of worldwide policy debate
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