Spatial Variations in Fertility Desire in West Africa

Fertility in sub-Saharan Africa is among the highest globally and relatively higher in West Africa compared to the other sub-regions of Africa. While there have been extensive studies on fertility in West Africa, the underlying spatial variations with regard to within and cross-border variations among countries has received little attention. This study examined spatial variations in fertility desire among thirteen (13) West African countries using data from the most recent Demographic and Health Survey conducted between 2010 and 2018. The analysis considers two fertility indicators; preference for another child and ideal number of children, and the spatial units were the states/regions/provinces of the countries included in the study. Bayesian spatial models were specified for the count and multi-categorical response variables respectively, with the use of Markov random field prior for the spatial components while Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation technique was used for parameter estimation. The findings suggest spatial clustering in fertility desire both within and between countries, revealing cross-border spatial contagion. Specifically, women report high number of children as ideal throughout Niger extending to neighbouring northern Nigeria, in Mopti and Koulikoro regions of Mali; in Couffo region of Benin; in Kaffrine region of Senegal and all except Basse region of The Gambia. Additionally, being young, having low or no formal education, living in poor households, being a rural dweller and not using contraceptives were negatively associated with fertility desire. Policies aimed at reducing fertility should consider the spatial dynamics in addition to targeting younger, less educated, rural dwelling women while also strengthening sensitization campaigns for family planning.