Effects of seasonal variations in vegetation and precipitation on catchment erosion rates along a climate and ecological gradient: insights from numerical modeling

Abstract. Precipitation in wet seasons influences catchment erosion and contributes to annual erosion rates. However, wet seasons are also associated with increased vegetation cover, which helps resist erosion. This study investigates the effect of present-day seasonal variations in rainfall and vegetation cover on erosion rates for four catchments along the extreme climate and ecological gradient (from arid to temperate) of the Chilean Coastal Cordillera (∼ 26–∼ 38∘ S). We do this using the Landlab–SPACE landscape evolution model to account for vegetation-dependent hillslope–fluvial processes and hillslope hydrology. Model inputs include present-day (90 m) topography and a time series (from 2000–2019) of MODIS-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for vegetation seasonality, weather station observations of precipitation, and evapotranspiration obtained from Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Noah. The sensitivity of catchment-scale erosion rates to seasonal average variations in precipitation and/or vegetation cover was quantified using numerical model simulations. Simulations were conducted for 1000 years (20 years of vegetation and precipitation observations repeated 50 times). After detrending the results for long-term transient changes, the last 20 years were analyzed. Results indicate that when vegetation cover is variable but precipitation is held constant, the amplitude of change in erosion rates relative to mean erosion rates ranges between 5 % (arid) and 36 % (Mediterranean setting). In contrast, in simulations with variable precipitation change and constant vegetation cover, the amplitude of change in erosion rates is higher and ranges between 13 % (arid) and 91 % (Mediterranean setting). Finally, simulations with coupled precipitation and vegetation cover variations demonstrate variations in catchment erosion of 13 % (arid) to 97 % (Mediterranean setting). Taken together, we find that precipitation variations more strongly influence seasonal variations in erosion rates. However, the effects of seasonal variations in vegetation cover on erosion are also significant (between 5 % and 36 %) and are most pronounced in semi-arid to Mediterranean settings and least prevalent in arid and humid–temperature settings.