Predictors of second language reading comprehension ability: a longitudinal study with learners from grade 9 to 11 in an English as a foreign language context

This longitudinal study investigated development of second language (L2) reading comprehension ability and predictive contributions of five L2 reading components (word recognition speed, listening comprehension, vocabulary breadth, grammar knowledge and first language [L1] reading comprehension) using latent growth curve modelling. The participants were Japanese EFL (English as a foreign language) learners from Grade 9 to 11. L2-English reading comprehension ability was assessed with two tests (called narrative and expository tests). The growth pattern of reading comprehension was linear regardless of test type or language, and the initial individual difference continued for two years. For both L2 reading measures, all reading components made significant contributions except for word recognition speed. The remaining four components significantly predicted the initial L2 reading comprehension levels, and L2 variables made larger contributions than did L1 reading comprehension, endorsing the findings of previous L2 studies. As for the growth rate, no significant predictor emerged for the expository measure, but two predictors, grammar and listening comprehension, significantly predicted narrative growth, with the contribution of grammar being negative and that of listening comprehension being positive. The unexpected grammar result may be attributable to test features, and the predictive power of listening comprehension for growth in one type of reading suggests the important role of listening comprehension ability even in the EFL context where learners do not usually acquire firm oral language foundations before reading. This supports the applicability of the Simple View of Reading even to the EFL context.