2016年1月,西澳大利亚Waroona森林大火期间极端火灾行为的气象驱动因素

IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI:10.1071/es17007
Mika Peace, Lachlan McCaw, Bradley Santos, Jeffrey D. Kepert, Neil Burrows, Robert J. B. Fawcett
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2016年1月,沃鲁纳森林大火烧毁了珀斯以南69000公顷的土地。在火灾的头两天,有两次火积雨云(pyroCb)事件和两次破坏性的夜间火灾。160多所房屋被毁,两人死亡。本案例研究详细探讨了气象观测与火灾行为重建之间的联系。2016年1月6日星期三,当火势在轻盛行风中出人意料地快速蔓延时,第一个火源出现了。火堆产生的雷击在主火头的下风处点燃了新的大火。周四上午,与正常的雷暴趋势相反,出现了第二波高温高热。与前一天晚上类似,考虑到近地面的气象条件,火灾蔓延速度比预期的要快。两个晚上,瓦鲁纳镇(周三)和耶卢普镇(周四)都发生了破坏性的余烬风暴。对气象观测结果的研究将这些余烬阵雨与下坡风的开始联系起来,当地称之为“陡坡风”。由于下坡风与强烈的局部湍流有关,它们为大量燃烧物的输送提供了机制。Waroona极端火灾行为的时期与正常的日预期相反,并且与观察到的最高火灾危险指数(FDI)值不符,该值发生在1600 ltt左右。本研究将pyrob事件与火灾加速蔓延联系起来,这给消防员带来了传统的基于地面的火灾预测方法没有考虑到的危险。许多地方都发生了类似于影响瓦鲁纳大火的下坡风。它们为破坏性的黄昏余烬阵雨提供了高度局部化的机制。对瓦鲁纳火灾的调查描述了火大气反馈过程的潜在影响。因此,它强调了对预测非稳态火灾行为的预测方法和工具的需求。使用耦合火-大气模型的计划模拟将允许进一步深入了解本案例研究的特征。
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Meteorological drivers of extreme fire behaviour during the Waroona bushfire, Western Australia, January 2016
The Waroona bushfire burnt 69,000 ha south of Perth in January 2016. During the first two days of the fire, there were two pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events and two destructive evening fire runs. Over 160 homes were destroyed and there were two fatalities. This case study examines in detail the links between the meteorological observations and the fire behaviour reconstruction.The first pyroCb developed on Wednesday 6 January 2016, when the fire made an unexpectedly fast run in light prevailing winds. The pyroCb produced lightning strikes that ignited a new fire downwind of the main head fire. A second pyroCb developed on Thursday morning, against normal diurnal thunderstorm trends. Similar to the previous evening, the fire spread faster than expected, given the near-surface meteorological conditions.On both evenings there were destructive ember storms over the towns of Waroona (Wednesday) and Yarloop (Thursday). Examination of the meteorological observations has linked these ember showers to the onset of downslope winds, locally known as `scarp winds'. As downslope winds are associated with strong localised turbulence, they provide a mechanism for transport of large numbers of firebrands.The periods of extreme fire behaviour at Waroona were against normal diurnal expectations and did not coincide with the highest observed Fire Danger Index (FDI) values, which occurred at around 1600 LT. This study links both pyroCb events to accelerated fire spread, which presents a hazard to firefighters that is not accounted for in traditional, surface based methods of fire prediction. Downslope winds similar to those that impacted the Waroona fire occur at many locations. They provide a highly localised mechanism for destructive evening ember showers.This investigation into the Waroona fire describes the potential impacts of fireatmosphere feedback processes. Consequently, it highlights the need for predictive methods and tools that anticipate fire behaviour which is not steady-state. Planned simulations using a coupled fire-atmosphere model will allow further insights into features of this case study.
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来源期刊
Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Oceanography
CiteScore
8.10
自引率
8.30%
发文量
0
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science (JSHESS) publishes broad areas of research with a distinct emphasis on the Southern Hemisphere. The scope of the Journal encompasses the study of the mean state, variability and change of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface, including the cryosphere, from hemispheric to regional scales. general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans, climate change and variability , climate impacts, climate modelling , past change in the climate system including palaeoclimate variability, atmospheric dynamics, synoptic meteorology, mesoscale meteorology and severe weather, tropical meteorology, observation systems, remote sensing of atmospheric, oceanic and land surface processes, weather, climate and ocean prediction, atmospheric and oceanic composition and chemistry, physical oceanography, air‐sea interactions, coastal zone processes, hydrology, cryosphere‐atmosphere interactions, land surface‐atmosphere interactions, space weather, including impacts and mitigation on technology, ionospheric, magnetospheric, auroral and space physics, data assimilation applied to the above subject areas . Authors are encouraged to contact the Editor for specific advice on whether the subject matter of a proposed submission is appropriate for the Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science.
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