Climate, Crops, and Postharvest Conflict

I present new evidence of the effects of climate shocks on political violence and social unrest. Using granular conflict and weather data covering the entire continent of Africa from 1997 to 2023, I find that exposure to El Ni\~no events during the crop-growing season decreases political violence targeted at civilians during the early postharvest season. A moderate-strength El Ni\~no event results in a three percent reduction in political violence with civilian targeting in croplands compared with the benchmark levels of this conflict evaluated at average cropland size and average growing-season exposure of local weather to El Ni\~no shocks. Because this effect manifests itself only in cells with crop agriculture and only during the postharvest season supports the idea that agriculture is the key channel and rapacity is the key motive connecting climatic shocks and political violence. Reassuringly, the magnitude of the estimated effect increases substantially, in one instance more than doubles, when I use subsets of data that are better suited for unveiling the proposed mechanism. This study advances knowledge of the relationship between climate and conflict. And because El Ni\~no events can be predicted several months in advance, these findings can contribute to creating a platform for early warning of political violence, specifically in predominantly agrarian societies in Africa.