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Uncertainty of Supply Chains: Risk and Ambiguity 供应链的不确定性:风险与模糊性
Pub Date : 2024-05-06 DOI: arxiv-2405.03451
d'Artis Kancs
Motivated by the recently experienced systemic shocks (the COVID-19 pandemicand the full-fledged Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine) - that havecreated new forms of uncertainties to our supplies - this paper explores thesupply chain robustness under risk aversion and ambiguity aversion. We aim tounderstand the potential consequences of deeply uncertain systemic events onthe supply chain resilience and how does the information precision affectindividual agents' choices and the chain-level preparedness to aggregateshocks. Augmenting a parsimonious supply chain model with uncertainty, weanalyse the relationship between the upstream sourcing decisions and the supplychain survival probability. Both risk-averse and ambiguity-averseindividually-optimising agents' upstream sourcing paths are efficient but canbecome vulnerable to aggregate shocks. In contrast, a chain-level coordinationof downstream firm sourcing decisions can qualitatively improve the robustnessof the entire supply chain compared to the individual decision-making baseline.Such a robust decision making ensures that in the presence of an aggregateshock - independently of its realisation - part of upstream suppliers willsurvive and the final goods' supply will be ensured even under the mostdemanding circumstances. Our results also indicate that an input sourcediversification extracts a cost in foregone efficiency.
最近经历的系统性冲击(COVID-19 大流行病和俄罗斯对乌克兰的全面侵略战争)给我们的供应带来了新形式的不确定性,受此激励,本文探讨了风险规避和模糊规避下的供应链稳健性。我们旨在了解深度不确定的系统性事件对供应链复原力的潜在影响,以及信息精确度如何影响个体代理的选择和供应链层面对聚合冲击的防备能力。我们用不确定性增强了一个简约的供应链模型,分析了上游采购决策与供应链生存概率之间的关系。风险规避型和模糊规避型个体最优化代理的上游采购路径都是有效的,但在总量冲击下会变得脆弱。相反,与单个决策基线相比,下游企业采购决策的链级协调可以从质量上提高整个供应链的稳健性。这种稳健的决策确保了在出现总体冲击时,无论冲击是否实现,部分上游供应商都能存活下来,即使在需求最旺盛的情况下,最终产品的供应也能得到保证。我们的研究结果还表明,投入来源多样化会带来效率损失。
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引用次数: 0
Crypto Market Analysis & Real-Estate Business Protocol Proposal | Application of Ethereum Blockchain 加密货币市场分析与房地产商业协议提案|以太坊区块链的应用
Pub Date : 2024-05-04 DOI: arxiv-2405.02547
Sid Bhatia, Samuel Gedal, Himaya Jeyakumar Grace Lee, Ravinder Chopra, Daniel Roman, Shrijani Chakroborty
This paper examines the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market and proposes anovel blockchain-based protocol for real estate transactions. Our analysisincludes a detailed review of price trends, volatility, and correlations withinthe cryptocurrency market, focusing on major assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, andTether. We provide a critical assessment of the impact of significant marketevents, such as the FTX bankruptcy, highlighting the vulnerabilities andresilience of the crypto market. The study also explores the potential ofblockchain technology to innovate real estate transactions by enabling thesecure and transparent handling of property deeds without traditionalintermediaries. We introduce a blockchain protocol that reduces transactioncosts, enhances security, and increases transparency, making real estatetransactions more accessible and efficient. Our proposal aims to leverage theinherent benefits of blockchain to address real-world challenges in real estatetransactions, providing a scalable and secure platform for property sales in aglobal market.
本文研究了加密货币市场的动态,并提出了一种基于区块链的新型房地产交易协议。我们的分析包括详细回顾加密货币市场的价格趋势、波动性和相关性,重点关注比特币、以太坊和 Tether 等主要资产。我们对 FTX 破产等重大市场事件的影响进行了批判性评估,凸显了加密货币市场的脆弱性和弹性。本研究还探讨了区块链技术在创新房地产交易方面的潜力,即无需传统中介即可安全、透明地处理房产契约。我们介绍了一种区块链协议,它可以降低交易成本、增强安全性和提高透明度,使房地产交易更加便捷高效。我们的建议旨在利用区块链的固有优势,解决房地产交易中的现实挑战,为全球市场的房地产销售提供一个可扩展的安全平台。
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引用次数: 0
Monetary Policies on Green Financial Markets: Evidence from a Multi-Moment Connectedness Network 货币政策对绿色金融市场的影响:来自多时刻关联网络的证据
Pub Date : 2024-05-04 DOI: arxiv-2405.02575
Tingguo Zheng, Hongyin Zhang, Shiqi Ye
This paper introduces a novel multi-moment connectedness network approach foranalyzing the interconnectedness of green financial market. Focusing on theimpact of monetary policy shocks, our study reveals that connectedness withinthe green bond and equity markets varies with different moments (returns,volatility, skewness, and kurtosis) and changes significantly around FederalOpen Market Committee (FOMC) events. Static analysis shows a decrease inconnectedness with higher moments, while dynamic analysis highlights increasedsensitivity to event-driven shocks. We find that both tight and loose monetarypolicy shocks initially elevate connectedness within the first six months.However, the effects of tight shocks gradually fade, whereas loose shocks mayreduce connectedness after one year. These results offer insight topolicymakers in regulating sustainable economies and investment managers instrategizing asset allocation and risk management, especially inenvironmentally focused markets. Our study contributes to understanding thecomplex dynamics of the green financial market in response to monetarypolicies, helping in decision-making for sustainable economic development andfinancial stability.
本文介绍了一种新颖的多矩关联网络方法,用于分析绿色金融市场的相互关联性。我们的研究以货币政策冲击的影响为重点,揭示了绿色债券和股票市场的关联性随不同时刻(收益率、波动率、偏度和峰度)而变化,并在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)事件前后发生显著变化。静态分析表明,随着矩数的增加,非关联性降低,而动态分析则突出了对事件驱动冲击的敏感性增加。我们发现,紧缩和宽松的货币政策冲击最初都会在头六个月内提升关联度。然而,紧缩冲击的影响会逐渐减弱,而宽松冲击则可能在一年后降低关联度。这些结果为监管可持续经济的政策制定者和指导资产配置与风险管理的投资经理提供了启示,尤其是在以环保为重点的市场中。我们的研究有助于理解绿色金融市场响应货币政策的复杂动态,有助于为可持续经济发展和金融稳定做出决策。
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引用次数: 0
The Economy and Public Diplomacy: An Analysis of RT's Economic Content and Context on Facebook 经济与公共外交:分析 RT 在 Facebook 上的经济内容和背景
Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: arxiv-2405.01798
Ayse D. Lokmanoglu, Carol K. Winkler, Kareem El Damanhoury, Virginia Massignan, Esteban Villa-Turek, Keyu Alexander Chen
With globalization's rise, economic interdependence's impacts have become aprominent factor affecting personal lives, as well as national andinternational dynamics. This study examines RT's public diplomacy efforts onits non-Russian Facebook accounts over the past five years to identify theprominence of economic topics across language accounts. Computational analysis,including word embeddings and statistical methods, investigates how offlineeconomic indicators, like currency values and oil prices, correspond to RT'sonline economic content changes. The results demonstrate that RT uses messagereinforcement associated economic topics as an audience targeting strategy anddifferentiates their use with changing currency and oil values.
随着全球化的兴起,经济相互依存的影响已成为影响个人生活以及国家和国际动态的主要因素。本研究考察了过去五年来 RT 在非俄罗斯 Facebook 账户上的公共外交工作,以确定经济话题在各语言账户中的主导地位。包括词嵌入和统计方法在内的计算分析研究了离线经济指标(如货币价值和石油价格)如何与 RT 的在线经济内容变化相对应。结果表明,RT 将与经济话题相关的信息强化作为一种受众定位策略,并根据货币和石油价值的变化对其使用进行区分。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating Production Planning and Control Systems in Different Environments: A Comparative Simulation Study 评估不同环境下的生产计划和控制系统:模拟比较研究
Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: arxiv-2405.02015
Wolfgang Seiringer, Balwin Bokor, Klaus Altendorfer
Selecting the appropriate production planning and control systems (PPCS)presents a significant challenge for many companies, as their performance, i.e.overall costs, depends on the production system environment. Key environmentalcharacteristics include the system's structure, i.e. flow shop, hybrid shop, orjob shop, and the planned shop load. Besides selecting a suitable PPCS, itsparameterization significantly influences the performance. This publicationinvestigates the performance and the optimal parametrization of MaterialRequirement Planning (MRP), Reorder Point System (RPS) and Constant Work InProgress (ConWIP) at different stochastic multi-item multi-stage productionsystem environments by conduction a comprehensive full factorial simulationstudy. The results indicate that MRP and ConWIP generally outperform RPS in allobserved environments. Moreover, when comparing MRP with ConWIP, theperformance clearly varies depending on the specific production systemenvironment.
选择合适的生产计划和控制系统(PPCS)对许多公司来说都是一项重大挑战,因为其性能(即总体成本)取决于生产系统的环境。关键的环境特征包括系统结构,即流动车间、混合车间或作业车间,以及计划车间负荷。除了选择合适的 PPCS 外,其参数化对性能也有很大影响。本文通过全面的全因子仿真研究,探讨了在不同的随机多项目多阶段生产系统环境下,物料需求计划(MRP)、重订点系统(RPS)和在制品恒定(ConWIP)的性能和最优参数化。结果表明,在所有观测环境下,MRP 和 ConWIP 的性能普遍优于 RPS。此外,在对 MRP 和 ConWIP 进行比较时,其性能明显因具体的生产系统环境而异。
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引用次数: 0
Energy Price and Workload Related Dispatching Rule: Balancing Energy and Production Logistics Costs 能源价格与工作量相关的调度规则:平衡能源和生产物流成本
Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: arxiv-2405.02445
Balwin Bokor, Wolfgang Seiringer, Klaus Altendorfer, Thomas Felberbauer
In response to the escalating need for sustainable manufacturing practicesamid fluctuating energy prices, this study introduces a novel dispatching rulethat integrates energy price and workload considerations with MaterialRequirement Planning (MRP) to optimize production logistics and energy costs.The dispatching rule effectively adjusts machine operational states, i.e. turnthe machine on or off, based on current energy prices and workload. Bydeveloping a stochastic multi-item multi-stage job shop simulation model, thisresearch evaluates the performance of the dispatching rule through acomprehensive full-factorial simulation. Findings indicate a significantenhancement in shop floor decision-making through reduced costs. Moreover, theanalysis of the Pareto front reveals trade-offs between minimizing energy andproduction logistics costs, aiding decision-makers in selecting optimalconfigurations.
为了应对能源价格波动对可持续生产实践不断升级的需求,本研究引入了一种新型调度规则,将能源价格和工作量因素与物料需求计划(MRP)相结合,以优化生产物流和能源成本。本研究通过开发随机多项目多阶段作业车间仿真模型,对调度规则的性能进行了全面的全因子仿真评估。研究结果表明,通过降低成本,车间决策得到了显著改善。此外,帕累托前沿分析揭示了能源和生产物流成本最小化之间的权衡,有助于决策者选择最佳配置。
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引用次数: 0
Simulating the economic impact of rationality through reinforcement learning and agent-based modelling 通过强化学习和代理建模模拟理性对经济的影响
Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: arxiv-2405.02161
Simone Brusatin, Tommaso Padoan, Andrea Coletta, Domenico Delli Gatti, Aldo Glielmo
Agent-based models (ABMs) are simulation models used in economics to overcomesome of the limitations of traditional frameworks based on general equilibriumassumptions. However, agents within an ABM follow predetermined, not fullyrational, behavioural rules which can be cumbersome to design and difficult tojustify. Here we leverage multi-agent reinforcement learning (RL) to expand thecapabilities of ABMs with the introduction of fully rational agents that learntheir policy by interacting with the environment and maximising a rewardfunction. Specifically, we propose a 'Rational macro ABM' (R-MABM) framework byextending a paradigmatic macro ABM from the economic literature. We show thatgradually substituting ABM firms in the model with RL agents, trained tomaximise profits, allows for a thorough study of the impact of rationality onthe economy. We find that RL agents spontaneously learn three distinctstrategies for maximising profits, with the optimal strategy depending on thelevel of market competition and rationality. We also find that RL agents withindependent policies, and without the ability to communicate with each other,spontaneously learn to segregate into different strategic groups, thusincreasing market power and overall profits. Finally, we find that a higherdegree of rationality in the economy always improves the macroeconomicenvironment as measured by total output, depending on the specific rationalpolicy, this can come at the cost of higher instability. Our R-MABM frameworkis general, it allows for stable multi-agent learning, and represents aprincipled and robust direction to extend existing economic simulators.
基于代理的模型(ABMs)是经济学中用来克服基于一般均衡假设的传统框架的一些局限性的模拟模型。然而,ABM 中的代理遵循预定的、非完全理性的行为规则,这可能会给设计带来麻烦,也很难证明其合理性。在这里,我们利用多代理强化学习(RL)来扩展人工智能模型的能力,引入完全理性的代理,通过与环境互动和最大化奖励函数来学习其政策。具体来说,我们提出了一个 "理性宏观 ABM"(R-MABM)框架,扩展了经济文献中的一个典型宏观 ABM。我们的研究表明,将模型中的 ABM 公司逐步替换为 RL 代理,并对其进行利润最大化训练,可以深入研究理性对经济的影响。我们发现,RL 代理会自发学习三种不同的利润最大化策略,最佳策略取决于市场竞争程度和理性程度。我们还发现,具有独立政策且无法相互沟通的 RL 代理会自发地学习隔离成不同的战略集团,从而提高市场力量和整体利润。最后,我们发现,经济中较高程度的理性总是能改善以总产出衡量的宏观经济环境,这取决于具体的理性政策,但其代价可能是更高的不稳定性。我们的 R-MABM 框架是通用的,它允许稳定的多代理学习,是扩展现有经济模拟器的一个原则性和稳健的方向。
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引用次数: 0
Harmony in the Australian Domain Space 澳大利亚领域空间的和谐
Pub Date : 2024-04-11 DOI: arxiv-2404.10006
Xian Gong, Paul X. McCarthy, Marian-Andrei Rizoiu, Paolo Boldi
In this paper we use for the first time a systematic approach in the study ofharmonic centrality at a Web domain level, and gather a number of significantnew findings about the Australian web. In particular, we explore therelationship between economic diversity at the firm level and the structure ofthe Web within the Australian domain space, using harmonic centrality as themain structural feature. The distribution of harmonic centrality values isanalyzed over time, and we find that the distributions exhibit a consistentpattern across the different years. The observed distribution is well capturedby a partition of the domain space into six clusters; the temporal movement ofdomain names across these six positions yields insights into the AustralianDomain Space and exhibits correlations with other non-structuralcharacteristics. From a more global perspective, we find a significantcorrelation between the median harmonic centrality of all domains in each OECDcountry and one measure of global trust, the WJP Rule of Law Index. Furtherinvestigation demonstrates that 35 countries in OECD share similar harmoniccentrality distributions. The observed homogeneity in distribution presents acompelling avenue for exploration, potentially unveiling critical corporate,regional, or national insights.
在本文中,我们首次在网络域层面使用了一种系统的方法来研究谐波中心性,并收集了大量有关澳大利亚网络的重要新发现。特别是,我们以谐波中心性为主要结构特征,探讨了澳大利亚域空间内企业层面的经济多样性与网络结构之间的关系。我们分析了谐波中心度值随时间的分布,发现不同年份的分布呈现出一致的模式。我们将域空间划分为六个群组,很好地捕捉到了观察到的分布情况;域名称在这六个位置上的时空移动揭示了澳大利亚域空间的情况,并显示出与其他非结构特征的相关性。从更广阔的全球视角来看,我们发现每个经合组织国家所有域的谐波中心度中位数与全球信任度的衡量指标之一--WJP 法治指数--之间存在显著的相关性。进一步调查表明,经合组织的 35 个国家具有相似的调和中心度分布。观察到的分布同质性提供了一个令人信服的探索途径,有可能揭示企业、地区或国家的重要见解。
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引用次数: 0
Multicriteria Analysis Model in Sustainable Corn Farming Area Planning 可持续玉米种植区规划中的多标准分析模型
Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI: arxiv-2404.01782
Abdul Haris, Muhammad Munawir Syarif, Hamed Narolla, Rachmat Hidayat
This study aims to develop a framework for multicriteria analysis to evaluatealternatives for sustainable corn agricultural area planning, considering theintegration of ecological, economic, and social aspects as pillars ofsustainability. The research method uses qualitative and quantitativeapproaches to integrate ecological, economic, and social aspects in themulticriteria analysis. The analysis involves land evaluation, subcriteriaidentification, and data integration using Multidimensional Scaling andAnalytical Hierarchy Process methods to prioritize developing sustainable cornagricultural areas. Based on the results of the RAP-Corn analysis, it indicatesthat the ecological dimension depicts less sustainability. The AHP resultsyield weight distribution and highly relevant scores that describe tangiblepreferences. Priority directions are grouped as strategic steps towardachieving the goals of sustainable corn agricultural area planning.
本研究旨在开发一个多标准分析框架,以评估玉米农业区可持续规划的替代方案,同时考虑到生态、经济和社会方面作为可持续发展的支柱。研究方法采用定性和定量相结合的方法,将生态、经济和社会方面纳入多重标准分析。该分析包括土地评估、子标准识别以及使用多维标度法和层次分析法进行数据整合,以确定发展可持续玉米农业区的优先次序。根据 RAP-玉米分析的结果,生态维度对可持续性的描述较少。层次分析法的结果得出了权重分布和高度相关的分数,描述了具体的偏好。优先方向被归类为实现可持续玉米农业区规划目标的战略步骤。
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引用次数: 0
Methods of Stochastic Field Theory in Non-Equilibrium Systems -- Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking of Ergodicity 非平衡系统中的随机场论方法 -- Ergodicity 的自发对称性破坏
Pub Date : 2024-03-30 DOI: arxiv-2404.01333
Tatsuru Kikuchi
Recently, a couple of investigations related to symmetry breaking phenomena,'spontaneous stochasticity' and 'ergodicity breaking' have led to significantimpacts in a variety of fields related to the stochastic processes such aseconomics and finance. We investigate on the origins and effects of thoseoriginal symmetries in the action from the mathematical and the effective fieldtheory points of view. It is naturally expected that whenever the systemrespects any symmetry, it would be spontaneously broken once the system fallsinto a vacuum state which minimizes an effective action of the dynamicalsystem.
最近,与对称性破缺现象、"自发随机性 "和 "遍历性破缺 "有关的几项研究在经济学和金融学等与随机过程有关的多个领域产生了重大影响。我们从数学和有效场论的角度研究了这些原始对称性作用的起源和影响。我们很自然地预料到,只要系统尊重任何对称性,一旦系统陷入真空状态,对称性就会自发地被打破,而真空状态会使动力系统的有效作用最小化。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
arXiv - QuantFin - Economics
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