David Kröger, Jan Peper, Nils Offermann, Christian Rehtanz
{"title":"天气不确定条件下海上风电场发电和输电能力优化研究","authors":"David Kröger, Jan Peper, Nils Offermann, Christian Rehtanz","doi":"arxiv-2311.17981","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Offshore wind power in the North Sea is considered a main pillar in Europe's\nfuture energy system. A key challenge lies in determining the optimal spatial\ncapacity allocation of offshore wind parks in combination with the dimensioning\nand layout of the connecting high-voltage direct current grid infrastructure.\nTo determine economically cost optimal configurations, we apply an integrated\ncapacity and transmission expansion problem within a pan-European electricity\nmarket and transmission grid model with a high spatial and temporal\ngranularity. By conducting scenario analysis for the year 2030 with a gradually\nincreasing CO2 price, possible offshore expansion paths are derived and\npresented. Special emphasis is laid on the effects of weather uncertainty by\nincorporating data from 21 historical weather years in the analysis. Two key\nfindings are (i) an expansion in addition to the existing offshore wind\ncapacity of 0 GW (136 EUR/tCO2), 12 GW (159 EUR/tCO2) and 30 GW (186 EUR/tCO2)\ndependent on the underlying CO2 price. (ii) A strong sensitivity of the results\ntowards the underlying weather data highlighting the importance of\nincorporating multiple weather years.","PeriodicalId":501487,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Optimizing the Generation and Transmission Capacity of Offshore Wind Parks under Weather Uncertainty\",\"authors\":\"David Kröger, Jan Peper, Nils Offermann, Christian Rehtanz\",\"doi\":\"arxiv-2311.17981\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Offshore wind power in the North Sea is considered a main pillar in Europe's\\nfuture energy system. A key challenge lies in determining the optimal spatial\\ncapacity allocation of offshore wind parks in combination with the dimensioning\\nand layout of the connecting high-voltage direct current grid infrastructure.\\nTo determine economically cost optimal configurations, we apply an integrated\\ncapacity and transmission expansion problem within a pan-European electricity\\nmarket and transmission grid model with a high spatial and temporal\\ngranularity. By conducting scenario analysis for the year 2030 with a gradually\\nincreasing CO2 price, possible offshore expansion paths are derived and\\npresented. Special emphasis is laid on the effects of weather uncertainty by\\nincorporating data from 21 historical weather years in the analysis. Two key\\nfindings are (i) an expansion in addition to the existing offshore wind\\ncapacity of 0 GW (136 EUR/tCO2), 12 GW (159 EUR/tCO2) and 30 GW (186 EUR/tCO2)\\ndependent on the underlying CO2 price. (ii) A strong sensitivity of the results\\ntowards the underlying weather data highlighting the importance of\\nincorporating multiple weather years.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501487,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"arXiv - QuantFin - Economics\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-11-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"arXiv - QuantFin - Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/arxiv-2311.17981\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - QuantFin - Economics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2311.17981","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Optimizing the Generation and Transmission Capacity of Offshore Wind Parks under Weather Uncertainty
Offshore wind power in the North Sea is considered a main pillar in Europe's
future energy system. A key challenge lies in determining the optimal spatial
capacity allocation of offshore wind parks in combination with the dimensioning
and layout of the connecting high-voltage direct current grid infrastructure.
To determine economically cost optimal configurations, we apply an integrated
capacity and transmission expansion problem within a pan-European electricity
market and transmission grid model with a high spatial and temporal
granularity. By conducting scenario analysis for the year 2030 with a gradually
increasing CO2 price, possible offshore expansion paths are derived and
presented. Special emphasis is laid on the effects of weather uncertainty by
incorporating data from 21 historical weather years in the analysis. Two key
findings are (i) an expansion in addition to the existing offshore wind
capacity of 0 GW (136 EUR/tCO2), 12 GW (159 EUR/tCO2) and 30 GW (186 EUR/tCO2)
dependent on the underlying CO2 price. (ii) A strong sensitivity of the results
towards the underlying weather data highlighting the importance of
incorporating multiple weather years.