封锁与投票行为:2019冠状病毒病大流行期间推迟选举的自然实验

IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Economic Policy Pub Date : 2022-03-16 DOI:10.1093/epolic/eiac018
Tommaso Giommoni,Gabriel Loumeau
{"title":"封锁与投票行为:2019冠状病毒病大流行期间推迟选举的自然实验","authors":"Tommaso Giommoni,Gabriel Loumeau","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiac018","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The goal of this paper is to study the electoral impact of crisis management policies. With this aim, we exploit a natural experiment during the COVID-19 pandemic in France to evaluate the effect of the lockdown on voting behaviour. In particular, the country has been divided in two areas, red and green, subject to a ‘hard’ and a ‘soft’ lockdown, respectively. To measure voting behaviour, before and after the policy, we rely on the 2020 French municipal elections: the first round took place before the introduction of the restrictions, while the second round was delayed after the end of the lockdown. We estimate a spatial regression-discontinuity-design model comparing electoral outcomes around the border of red and green areas both in the second round and between the two electoral rounds. The main results suggest that lockdown regulations significantly affected voting outcomes. First, in localities under a harder lockdown, the incumbent’s vote share is higher. Second, voter turnout is larger where more stringent restrictions are adopted. These results suggest that lockdown policy mobilizes citizens and leads them to rally around the incumbent politicians.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2022-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Lockdown and voting behaviour: a natural experiment on postponed elections during the COVID-19 pandemic\",\"authors\":\"Tommaso Giommoni,Gabriel Loumeau\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/epolic/eiac018\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract The goal of this paper is to study the electoral impact of crisis management policies. With this aim, we exploit a natural experiment during the COVID-19 pandemic in France to evaluate the effect of the lockdown on voting behaviour. In particular, the country has been divided in two areas, red and green, subject to a ‘hard’ and a ‘soft’ lockdown, respectively. To measure voting behaviour, before and after the policy, we rely on the 2020 French municipal elections: the first round took place before the introduction of the restrictions, while the second round was delayed after the end of the lockdown. We estimate a spatial regression-discontinuity-design model comparing electoral outcomes around the border of red and green areas both in the second round and between the two electoral rounds. The main results suggest that lockdown regulations significantly affected voting outcomes. First, in localities under a harder lockdown, the incumbent’s vote share is higher. Second, voter turnout is larger where more stringent restrictions are adopted. These results suggest that lockdown policy mobilizes citizens and leads them to rally around the incumbent politicians.\",\"PeriodicalId\":47772,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Economic Policy\",\"volume\":\"27 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-03-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Economic Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiac018\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economic Policy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiac018","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的目的是研究危机管理政策对选举的影响。为此,我们利用法国COVID-19大流行期间的自然实验来评估封锁对投票行为的影响。特别是,该国被分为红色和绿色两个区域,分别受到“硬”和“软”封锁。为了衡量政策实施前后的投票行为,我们依靠2020年法国市政选举:第一轮选举在实施限制措施之前举行,而第二轮选举在封锁结束后推迟举行。我们估计了一个空间回归-不连续性-设计模型,比较了第二轮和两轮选举中红色和绿色区域边界附近的选举结果。主要结果表明,封锁措施对投票结果有显著影响。首先,在封锁力度更大的地方,现任总统的得票率更高。第二,如果采取更严格的限制措施,投票率就会更高。这些结果表明,封锁政策动员了公民,使他们团结在现任政治家周围。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Lockdown and voting behaviour: a natural experiment on postponed elections during the COVID-19 pandemic
Abstract The goal of this paper is to study the electoral impact of crisis management policies. With this aim, we exploit a natural experiment during the COVID-19 pandemic in France to evaluate the effect of the lockdown on voting behaviour. In particular, the country has been divided in two areas, red and green, subject to a ‘hard’ and a ‘soft’ lockdown, respectively. To measure voting behaviour, before and after the policy, we rely on the 2020 French municipal elections: the first round took place before the introduction of the restrictions, while the second round was delayed after the end of the lockdown. We estimate a spatial regression-discontinuity-design model comparing electoral outcomes around the border of red and green areas both in the second round and between the two electoral rounds. The main results suggest that lockdown regulations significantly affected voting outcomes. First, in localities under a harder lockdown, the incumbent’s vote share is higher. Second, voter turnout is larger where more stringent restrictions are adopted. These results suggest that lockdown policy mobilizes citizens and leads them to rally around the incumbent politicians.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Economic Policy
Economic Policy ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: Economic Policy provides timely and authoritative analyses of the choices confronting policymakers. The subject matter ranges from the study of how individual markets can and should work to the broadest interactions in the world economy. Economic Policy features: Analysis of key issues as they emerge Views of top international economists Frontier thinking without technical jargon Wide-reaching coverage of worldwide policy debate
期刊最新文献
Automatic for the (tax) people: information sharing and cross-border investment in tax havens The simple macroeconomics of AI Multilateral Tax Treaty Revision to Combat Tax Avoidance: On the Merits and Limits of BEPS’s Multilateral Instrument The Integration of Migrants in the German Labor Market: Evidence Over 50 Years Distributional and climate implications of policy responses to energy price shocks
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1