封锁与投票行为:2019冠状病毒病大流行期间推迟选举的自然实验

IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Economic Policy Pub Date : 2022-03-16 DOI:10.1093/epolic/eiac018
Tommaso Giommoni,Gabriel Loumeau
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的目的是研究危机管理政策对选举的影响。为此,我们利用法国COVID-19大流行期间的自然实验来评估封锁对投票行为的影响。特别是,该国被分为红色和绿色两个区域,分别受到“硬”和“软”封锁。为了衡量政策实施前后的投票行为,我们依靠2020年法国市政选举:第一轮选举在实施限制措施之前举行,而第二轮选举在封锁结束后推迟举行。我们估计了一个空间回归-不连续性-设计模型,比较了第二轮和两轮选举中红色和绿色区域边界附近的选举结果。主要结果表明,封锁措施对投票结果有显著影响。首先,在封锁力度更大的地方,现任总统的得票率更高。第二,如果采取更严格的限制措施,投票率就会更高。这些结果表明,封锁政策动员了公民,使他们团结在现任政治家周围。
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Lockdown and voting behaviour: a natural experiment on postponed elections during the COVID-19 pandemic
Abstract The goal of this paper is to study the electoral impact of crisis management policies. With this aim, we exploit a natural experiment during the COVID-19 pandemic in France to evaluate the effect of the lockdown on voting behaviour. In particular, the country has been divided in two areas, red and green, subject to a ‘hard’ and a ‘soft’ lockdown, respectively. To measure voting behaviour, before and after the policy, we rely on the 2020 French municipal elections: the first round took place before the introduction of the restrictions, while the second round was delayed after the end of the lockdown. We estimate a spatial regression-discontinuity-design model comparing electoral outcomes around the border of red and green areas both in the second round and between the two electoral rounds. The main results suggest that lockdown regulations significantly affected voting outcomes. First, in localities under a harder lockdown, the incumbent’s vote share is higher. Second, voter turnout is larger where more stringent restrictions are adopted. These results suggest that lockdown policy mobilizes citizens and leads them to rally around the incumbent politicians.
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来源期刊
Economic Policy
Economic Policy ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: Economic Policy provides timely and authoritative analyses of the choices confronting policymakers. The subject matter ranges from the study of how individual markets can and should work to the broadest interactions in the world economy. Economic Policy features: Analysis of key issues as they emerge Views of top international economists Frontier thinking without technical jargon Wide-reaching coverage of worldwide policy debate
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