{"title":"全面二孩政策如何影响生育行为？","authors":"Run Ge , Xinzheng Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2023.11.002","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Chinese government implemented the universal two-child policy on January 1, 2016 to arrest the decline in the nation's birthrate and address the challenge of a rapidly aging population. We find that this policy significantly increased the possibility of having children and this effect was not attenuated from 2016 to 2018. This policy can explain 14.8% of the average number of newborns in 2016–2018. Our back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the three-child policy implemented in 2021 will bring additional 283.2 thousand newborns each year.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 227-237"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666933123000497/pdfft?md5=f37b1fe2047ab397ed82be022ab627f5&pid=1-s2.0-S2666933123000497-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"How does the universal two-child policy affect fertility behavior?\",\"authors\":\"Run Ge , Xinzheng Shi\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ceqi.2023.11.002\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The Chinese government implemented the universal two-child policy on January 1, 2016 to arrest the decline in the nation's birthrate and address the challenge of a rapidly aging population. We find that this policy significantly increased the possibility of having children and this effect was not attenuated from 2016 to 2018. This policy can explain 14.8% of the average number of newborns in 2016–2018. Our back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the three-child policy implemented in 2021 will bring additional 283.2 thousand newborns each year.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":100238,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"China Economic Quarterly International\",\"volume\":\"3 4\",\"pages\":\"Pages 227-237\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666933123000497/pdfft?md5=f37b1fe2047ab397ed82be022ab627f5&pid=1-s2.0-S2666933123000497-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"China Economic Quarterly International\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666933123000497\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2023/12/12 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"China Economic Quarterly International","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666933123000497","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2023/12/12 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
How does the universal two-child policy affect fertility behavior?
The Chinese government implemented the universal two-child policy on January 1, 2016 to arrest the decline in the nation's birthrate and address the challenge of a rapidly aging population. We find that this policy significantly increased the possibility of having children and this effect was not attenuated from 2016 to 2018. This policy can explain 14.8% of the average number of newborns in 2016–2018. Our back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the three-child policy implemented in 2021 will bring additional 283.2 thousand newborns each year.
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