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The impact of real estate market risks on the issuance costs of urban investment bonds: Evidence from China 房地产市场风险对城投债发行成本的影响:来自中国的证据
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ceqi.2024.09.004
Yan Dong, Dingyuan Hu
It has been widely believed that bond spreads are positively correlated with related market risks. However, some studies in China's urban investment bond (UIB) market indicate that an increase in real estate market risks usually narrows UIB spreads. This article focused on such puzzle and introduced a quadratic form regression to detect a U-shaped relationship between housing price volatility and UIB spreads, which confirms that UIB pricing is actually in consistence with the traditional bond theory. We further indicated that spreads of guaranteed UIBs were barely affected by housing price volatility, and fiscal transparency seemed to mitigate such volatility's impact on the issuance costs of UIBs. Those findings not only illuminate ways of mitigating risks in the UIB market in China using market instruments but also have important implications for how local governments around the world can mitigate their debt-related problems.
人们普遍认为,债券利差与相关市场风险正相关。然而,对中国城投债市场的一些研究表明,房地产市场风险的增加通常会缩小城投债利差。本文针对这一困惑,引入二次回归方法,发现房价波动与城投债利差之间存在U型关系,这证实了城投债定价实际上与传统债券理论是一致的。我们进一步指出,有担保的无担保债券的利差几乎不受房价波动的影响,而财政透明度似乎减轻了房价波动对无担保债券发行成本的影响。这些研究结果不仅揭示了利用市场工具降低中国UIB市场风险的方法,而且对世界各国地方政府如何缓解债务相关问题具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Trade unions and the wage gap between rural migrant and local urban workers in China 工会与中国农民工和城市本地工人的工资差距
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ceqi.2024.08.001
Xinxin Ma , Sho Komatsu

This study estimates union wage premiums and analyzes the influence of trade unions on the wage gap between rural migrants and local urban workers in China by employing the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition method based on national longitudinal survey data from the China Family Panel Studies (2010–2018). The results indicate that the union wage premium among rural migrant workers is greater than that among local urban workers. The disparity in union density widens the wage gap, whereas the difference in union wage premiums narrows the wage gap between the two groups. Moreover, the contribution rate of the former is greater than that of the latter. These results suggest that expanding union coverage among rural migrant workers could effectively contribute to reducing the wage gap.

本研究基于中国家庭面板研究(2010-2018 年)的全国纵向调查数据,采用布林德-瓦哈卡分解法估算了工会工资溢价,并分析了工会对中国农民工与当地城镇职工工资差距的影响。结果表明,农民工的工会工资溢价高于本地城镇职工。工会密度的差异扩大了工资差距,而工会工资溢价的差异则缩小了两组之间的工资差距。此外,前者的缴费率高于后者。这些结果表明,扩大工会在农民工中的覆盖面可以有效地缩小工资差距。
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引用次数: 0
The return of protectionism: Prospects for Sino-US trade relations in the wake of the trade war 保护主义的回归:贸易战后中美贸易关系的前景
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ceqi.2024.09.003
Hong Ma , Jingxin Ning
Over the past six years, the Sino-US trade war has not only reshaped the relationship between the world's two largest economies but also profoundly influenced the global economic and trade patterns. This paper reviews the background, process, and implications of the Sino-US trade war, examining its impact on China, the United States, and the broader global trade landscape across various socioeconomic dimensions. We begin by reviewing the development of Sino-US trade relations in the past 20 years. Next we detail the background and evolution of the trade war. We then discuss the economic consequences of the conflict, including the effect of tariff increases on product prices, employment, investment, consumption, and welfare. Finally, we explore the reshaping of supply chains in the aftermath of the trade conflict, and the interaction between trade policies and industrial policies within the context of the Sino-US trade war.
Existing literature indicates that the Sino-US trade war has resulted in significant welfare losses for both countries, with surprisingly little impact on employment. The tariffs have not achieved the intended outcome set by policymakers. Specifically, the additional tariffs imposed by the United States on China have neither effectively addressed trade imbalances nor brought manufacturing jobs back onshore. Our paper offers a new perspective on the complexity of the current international trade conflict.
六年来,中美贸易战不仅重塑了世界两大经济体之间的关系,也深刻影响了全球经济和贸易格局。本文回顾了中美贸易战的背景、过程和影响,从不同的社会经济维度探讨了中美贸易战对中国、美国以及全球贸易格局的影响。我们首先回顾了过去 20 年中美贸易关系的发展。接着,我们详细介绍了贸易战的背景和演变过程。然后,我们讨论了冲突的经济后果,包括提高关税对产品价格、就业、投资、消费和福利的影响。最后,我们探讨了贸易冲突后供应链的重塑,以及中美贸易战背景下贸易政策与产业政策之间的相互作用。关税并未达到政策制定者预期的结果。具体而言,美国对中国征收的额外关税既没有有效解决贸易失衡问题,也没有使制造业工作岗位回归本土。我们的论文为当前国际贸易冲突的复杂性提供了一个新的视角。
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引用次数: 0
A friend indeed to friends in need? China's trade regime and Covid-19 vaccine diplomacy 对需要帮助的朋友而言,中国是真正的朋友吗?中国的贸易体制与 Covid-19 疫苗外交
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ceqi.2024.09.001
Indra de Soysa , Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati
Employing newly available data on Chinese Covid-19 vaccine deliveries for a cross-section of 157 countries, we examine if China's vaccine diplomacy is driven by altruistic, enlightened self-interested motives or by purely strategic motives. According to the enlightened self-interested logic, China's vaccine supply would coincide with helping countries dependent on China for trade, i.e. its trading friends, while the strategic logic would entail providing vaccines to countries important commercially to China. In other words, the gravity of the Covid situation would be leveraged by China for strategic gain. Utilizing the logit estimator on probability of receiving vaccines from China and Tobit estimator on vaccine purchases and donations, we find that developing countries that are important to China's trade, and thereby, China's own commercial interests were less likely to get vaccines compared with countries that are more dependent on China. Furthermore, we find that countries more dependent on China are also likely to receive vaccine donations rather than purchases, suggesting that vaccine diplomacy was unlikely to be for commercial and strategic gain. Our results taken together signify that vaccine deliveries by China were not manipulated by trade interests in Beijing. The results suggest instead that China supplied vaccines to countries needing them and with whom Chinese goodwill reflects a more normal course of diplomacy—to service friends in need.
利用新近获得的中国向 157 个国家提供的 Covid-19 疫苗数据,我们研究了中国的疫苗外交是出于利他主义、开明自利的动机,还是纯粹的战略动机。根据开明自利的逻辑,中国的疫苗供应将与帮助在贸易上依赖中国的国家(即中国的贸易朋友)相吻合,而战略逻辑则需要向对中国具有重要商业意义的国家提供疫苗。换言之,中国将利用 Covid 局势的严重性来获取战略利益。利用从中国获得疫苗概率的 logit 估计器和疫苗购买与捐赠的 Tobit 估计器,我们发现,与对中国依赖程度较高的国家相比,对中国贸易乃至中国自身商业利益具有重要意义的发展中国家获得疫苗的可能性较低。此外,我们还发现,对中国依赖程度较高的国家也有可能获得疫苗捐赠而非购买,这表明疫苗外交不太可能是为了商业和战略利益。我们的综合结果表明,中国的疫苗供应并未受到北京贸易利益的操纵。相反,这些结果表明,中国向需要疫苗的国家提供了疫苗,中国对这些国家的善意反映了更正常的外交进程--为有需要的朋友提供服务。
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引用次数: 0
Promoting corporate independent innovation through judicial protection of intellectual property rights 通过知识产权司法保护促进企业自主创新
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ceqi.2024.09.002
Dong Chen , Shi Chen
This study examines the impact of judicial protection of intellectual property rights on firms' independent innovation. Using a staggered difference-in-differences model with panel data from Chinese manufacturing listed businesses (2014–2021) and the successive establishment of intellectual property courts in Chinese prefectural-level cities as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that establishing intellectual property courts in China encourages businesses to accumulate more technology-based intangible assets. Mechanism analysis suggests that judicial intellectual property protection enhances enterprises' independent innovation capacity by establishing a conducive institutional framework. This stimulating effect is particularly significant for industry-leading companies with technological supremacy. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that judicial intellectual property protection increases the generation of patents and trade secrets, with a more pronounced effect on firms receiving higher government research and development subsidies and better tax incentives. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers to encourage corporate independent innovation.
本研究探讨了知识产权司法保护对企业自主创新的影响。利用中国制造业上市企业的面板数据(2014-2021 年)和中国地级市相继建立知识产权法院作为准自然实验,我们采用交错差分模型发现,中国建立知识产权法院鼓励企业积累更多技术型无形资产。机制分析表明,知识产权司法保护通过建立有利的制度框架,提高了企业的自主创新能力。这种激励作用对于拥有技术优势的行业领先企业尤为显著。异质性分析表明,知识产权司法保护增加了专利和商业秘密的产生,对获得更高的政府研发补贴和更好的税收优惠政策的企业影响更为明显。这项研究为政策制定者鼓励企业自主创新提供了宝贵的启示。
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引用次数: 0
Unexpected environmental pollution: The cross-sector spillover effect of tax administration 意想不到的环境污染:税收管理的跨行业溢出效应
Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ceqi.2024.06.001
Yu Luo , Ming-ang Zhang , Gaoyi Lin

This paper draws on a natural experiment generated by the Key Tax Source (KTS) supervision in China to evaluate the impact of strengthening tax administration on firm's emission behavior. Using a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, we find that KTS supervision by State Administration of Taxation significantly improves firm's SO2 emissions. The mechanism analysis shows that, KTS firms tend to reduce their tax burden by over-emitting pollution; Meanwhile, local governments loosen environmental regulation on the KTS firms, which eventually causes KTS firms to adjust the energy utilization structure and reduce environmental protection investment. Further analysis shows that the pollution emission by KTS firms can be reduced by the implemented of tax credits and the improved environmental regulation standards.

本文利用中国重点税源(KTS)监管所产生的自然实验来评估加强税收管理对企业排放行为的影响。通过模糊回归不连续设计,我们发现国家税务总局的重点税源监管显著改善了企业的二氧化硫排放。机理分析表明,科创企业倾向于通过超标排放污染来减轻税负;同时,地方政府放松对科创企业的环境监管,最终导致科创企业调整能源利用结构,减少环保投资。进一步分析表明,通过实施税收减免和提高环境监管标准,可以减少科创企业的污染排放。
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引用次数: 0
The contraction of Chinese shadow banking and corporate investment behavior: Evidence from the background of the “New Rules on asset management” 中国影子银行收缩与企业投资行为:来自 "资管新规 "背景的证据
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ceqi.2024.06.003
Zhibin Ji , Naide Ye , Dongmin Kong

Employing the exogenous scenario of the “New Rules on Asset Management” in April 2018, this paper tries to explore the impact of the contraction of Chinese shadow banking on corporate investment behavior. This paper finds that the regulation leads to a 18.3% decrease in capital expenditure for firms relying on shadow banking system prior to the shock. Then, this paper tests three underlying mechanisms, which include the decrease of corporate borrowing, the increase of corporate financing constraints and the reduction of debt maturity. This paper also provides the empirical evidence that the implementation of the “New Rules on Asset Management” optimizes the allocation of capital across firms.

本文采用2018年4月 "资管新规 "的外生情景,试图探讨中国影子银行收缩对企业投资行为的影响。本文发现,监管导致冲击前依赖影子银行体系的企业资本支出下降了18.3%。然后,本文检验了三个内在机制,包括企业借贷减少、企业融资约束增加和债务期限缩短。本文还提供了实证证据,证明 "资管新规 "的实施优化了企业间的资本配置。
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引用次数: 0
The future of cities in the digital economy era: A study on the impact of internet on the agglomeration of producer services in Chinese Cities 数字经济时代城市的未来:互联网对中国城市生产性服务业集聚的影响研究
Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ceqi.2024.06.002
Sixu Wu , Jiewei Li

We construct an instrumental variable for the Internet penetration rate using China's “8-horizontal-8-longitudinal” optical cable network to identify the impact of the Internet on the agglomeration of producer services in cities. We find that, (i) the Internet promotes the agglomeration of producer services to cities with larger population sizes due to the higher knowledge intensity of large cities; (ii) the Internet can strengthen the role of the expansion of the manufacturing industry in a city or its surrounding areas in promoting producer services agglomeration in large cities, which in turn promotes the agglomeration of producer services to large cities.

我们利用中国 "八横八纵 "光缆网络构建了互联网普及率的工具变量,以识别互联网对城市生产性服务业集聚的影响。我们发现:(i) 由于大城市的知识密集度较高,互联网会促进生产者服务业向人口规模较大的城市集聚;(ii) 互联网可以加强城市或其周边地区制造业扩张对生产者服务业向大城市集聚的促进作用,进而促进生产者服务业向大城市集聚。
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引用次数: 0
Physician human capital, healthcare accessibility, and mismatch of healthcare resources 医生人力资本、医疗可及性和医疗资源错配
Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ceqi.2024.05.001
Chan Wang , Chengxiang Tang , Guoen Liu , Puyan Nie

China's multilevel medical education system generates tremendous physician human capital heterogeneity. This paper attempts to take advantage of the differences level of doctors' human capital to reveal the relationship between healthcare service mismatch and doctors' human capital using the DRGs data of a province in China. This paper found that: first, a higher level of physician human capital (PHC) in hospitals significantly increases the mismatch of medical services; second, there is a complementary effect between doctors' human capital and medical care accessibility, which significantly increases the degree of healthcare service mismatch, and these conclusions still hold after controlling the endogeneity and a series of robustness tests. Third, the mismatch effect is more significant in surgery than that of in internal medicine departments and the mismatch effect is stronger in county hospitals than that of provincial hospitals. Therefore, both patients' great confidence in superior medical services and the heterogeneity of PHC contribute to the mismatch of medical services in China.

中国多层次的医学教育体系产生了巨大的医生人力资本异质性。本文试图利用医生人力资本水平的差异,以我国某省的 DRGs 数据为基础,揭示医疗服务错配与医生人力资本之间的关系。本文发现:第一,医院医生人力资本(PHC)水平越高,医疗服务错配程度越明显;第二,医生人力资本与医疗服务可及性之间存在互补效应,显著提高了医疗服务错配程度,这些结论在控制了内生性和一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立。第三,外科的错配效应比内科更显著,县级医院的错配效应比省级医院更强。因此,患者对优质医疗服务的极大信心和公共卫生服务的异质性都是造成中国医疗服务错配的原因。
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引用次数: 0
Does “Going Global” help to restrain enterprises’ financialization: The Belt and Road initiative as a quasi-natural experiment "走出去 "是否有助于抑制企业金融化:作为准自然试验的 "一带一路 "倡议
Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ceqi.2024.04.001
Yan Zhi , Zheng Li , Changyuan Luo

This paper employs the difference-in-differences (DID) to investigate the impact of “going global” on enterprises' financialization. Baseline estimation shows that the degree of financialization of enterprises participating in the Belt and Road Initiative was lower compared with those not participating in the Initiative. Mechanism analysis reveals that “going global” through Belt and Road Initiative has improved enterprises' profitability of real sector investment and inhibited their motivation of financialization. These findings provide new perspectives for more effectively promoting enterprises to participate in the Belt and Road construction and helping inhibit enterprises’ financialization.

本文采用差分法(DID)研究 "走出去 "对企业金融化的影响。基线估计表明,参与 "一带一路 "倡议的企业金融化程度低于未参与 "一带一路 "倡议的企业。机理分析表明,通过 "一带一路 "倡议 "走出去 "提高了企业实体产业投资的收益率,抑制了企业金融化的动力。这些发现为更有效地促进企业参与 "一带一路 "建设、帮助抑制企业金融化提供了新的视角。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
China Economic Quarterly International
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