贸易视野:巴基斯坦出口多样化决定因素综合研究

Naima Mubeen, M. A. Quddus
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摘要

本研究的目的在于突出巴基斯坦出口的决定因素和多样化程度。采用联合国贸易和发展会议的出口多样化指数来计算出口多样化程度。此外,本文还利用1995年至2022年的时间序列数据,分析了影响出口多样化的因素。很少有研究涉及巴基斯坦背景下的估计和决定因素。为了检验单位根问题,使用增广迪基-富勒检验。本研究采用自回归分布滞后方法来观察潜在变量之间的长期关系。回归结果表明,官方汇率、经济全球化和外国直接投资对巴基斯坦出口多元化具有负向影响。而固定资本形成总额、世界人均国内生产总值、贸易条件和政治稳定对巴基斯坦的出口多样化有积极影响。
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Trade Horizons: A Comprehensive Study of Determinants Shaping Export Diversification in Pakistan
The present study aims at highlighting the determinants and degree diversification of export in Pakistan. The index of export’s diversification by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development is used to calculate the degree of export diversification. Furthermore, using time series data from 1995 to 2022, present study examines the factors that influence export diversification. There are very few studies that address estimating and determinants in the context of Pakistan. To check the unit root problem Augmented Dickey Fuller test is used.  The Auto Regressive Distributive Lag method is used in this study to observe long-term relationships in the underlying variables. The regression results indicate that official exchange rates, economic globalization, and foreign direct investment negatively affect export diversification in Pakistan. While, gross fixed capital formation, world GDP per capita, term of trade, and political stability positively affect diversification of exports in the case of Pakistan.
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