为什么 2022 年巴基斯坦的极端降水量比 2010 年更强?

IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Advances in Climate Change Research Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-03 DOI:10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.016
Xu Yuan , Kun Yang , Jing Sun , Yan Wang , Yan-Yi He , Mi-Jun Zou , Yao-Zhi Jiang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在巴基斯坦,2022年夏季(7 - 8月)连续发生了五次极端降水事件,造成了灾难性的洪水,夺去了数千人的生命,摧毁了数百万人的家园。2010年巴基斯坦也发生过这样的大灾难,但在盛夏发生了三次集中的极端降水事件。巴基斯坦2022年的日强降水量超过了2010年的记录,成为有记录以来最强的降水事件。为全面了解巴基斯坦极端降水的成因,研究了2010/2022年巴基斯坦极端降水的大气环流异常和水汽贡献,并比较了它们之间的差异。结果表明,2022年和2010年北欧上空的大气阻塞通过输送高纬度地区的干冷空气增强了巴基斯坦的对流,有利于暖湿季风空气向巴基斯坦移动。利用水汽路径模式,确定了巴基斯坦夏季降水的主要水汽源。发现除欧亚大陆外的水汽贡献增强,造成极端降水。特别是2022年南印度洋和北印度大陆的水汽贡献增强比2010年更为突出。2010年的水汽贡献增加是由于印度洋海面变暖导致的蒸发增加,而2022年的水汽输送更丰富是由于南半球副热带异常高压引起的跨赤道气流增强。因此,除了北半球副热带高压外,南半球副热带高压在理解巴基斯坦灾难性极端降水事件中的作用也应引起重视。
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Why was Pakistan extreme precipitation stronger in 2022 than in 2010?
In Pakistan, five continuous extreme precipitation events in the summer (July‒August) of 2022 caused disastrous floods, depriving thousands of people's lives and ruining millions of hometowns. This tremendous disaster in Pakistan also happened in 2010 but with three concentrated extreme precipitation events in the middle of summer. The amount of Pakistan heavy daily precipitation in 2022 surpasses that in 2010 record, making it the strongest precipitation event ever recorded. To comprehensively understand the causes of extreme precipitation in Pakistan, this study investigated the anomalies in atmospheric circulation and moisture contribution of 2010/2022 extreme precipitation and compared their differences. The results show that an atmospheric blocking over northern Europe in both 2022 and 2010 enhanced convection in Pakistan by transporting cold‒dry air from the high-latitude region and benefiting warm‒wet monsoonal air marching to Pakistan. By employing a moisture track model, the main moisture sources for summer precipitation in Pakistan were identified. It is found that moisture contributions except from Eurasia were enhanced, causing extreme precipitation. In particular, enhanced moisture contribution from the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Indian continent in 2022 are more prominent than that in 2010. The increased moisture contribution in 2010 was due to increased evaporation induced by warming sea surface in the Indian Ocean, while much richer moisture transport in 2022 was attributed to the enhanced cross‒equatorial flow induced by the anomalous subtropical high in the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore, attention should be paid to the role of subtropical high in the Southern Hemisphere in addition to those in Northern Hemisphere in understanding disastrous extreme precipitation events in Pakistan.
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来源期刊
Advances in Climate Change Research
Advances in Climate Change Research Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
9.80
自引率
4.10%
发文量
424
审稿时长
107 days
期刊介绍: Advances in Climate Change Research publishes scientific research and analyses on climate change and the interactions of climate change with society. This journal encompasses basic science and economic, social, and policy research, including studies on mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Advances in Climate Change Research attempts to promote research in climate change and provide an impetus for the application of research achievements in numerous aspects, such as socioeconomic sustainable development, responses to the adaptation and mitigation of climate change, diplomatic negotiations of climate and environment policies, and the protection and exploitation of natural resources.
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