Gordon Rausser, Galina Chebotareva, Wadim Strielkowski, Lubos Smutka
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Would Russian solar energy projects be feasible independent of state subsidies?
This paper explores the critical question of the sustainability of Russian
solar energy initiatives in the absence of governmental financial support. The
study aims to determine if Russian energy companies can maintain operations in
the solar energy sector without relying on direct state subsidies.
Methodologically, the analysis utilizes established investment metrics such as
Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Discounted Payback
Period (DPP), tailored to reflect the unique technical and economic aspects of
Russian solar energy facilities and to evaluate the influence of
sector-specific risks on project efficiency, using a rating approach. We
examined eleven solar energy projects under ten different scenarios to
understand the dynamics of direct state support, exploring variations in
support cessation, reductions in financial assistance, and the projects'
resilience to external risk factors. Our multi-criteria scenario assessment
indicates that, under the prevailing market conditions, the Russian solar
energy sector is not yet equipped to operate efficiently without ongoing state
financial subsidies. Interestingly, our findings also suggest that the solar
energy sector in Russia has a greater potential to reduce its dependence on
state support compared to the wind energy sector. Based on these insights, we
propose energy policy recommendations aimed at gradually minimizing direct
government funding in the Russian renewable energy market. This strategy is
designed to foster self-sufficiency and growth in the solar energy sector.