基于 VAR 模型的经济增长与海洋生态环境之间的关系

IF 2.1 4区 地球科学 Q2 MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY Journal of Sea Research Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI:10.1016/j.seares.2023.102462
Chenhui Li
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在探讨中国沿海地区经济增长与海洋保护之间的内在联系,特别是经济增长高 峰期和低谷期与海洋污染之间的变化关系。研究采用非线性模型来确定基于历史数据的动态关系,并加入非线性区域系统转移因子来实现这种动态关系。研究数据来自中国沿海 11 个省份的统计数据库,其中包含经济增长率和工业废物排放量的详细信息。研究发现,在不同系统中,不同省份的均值、方差和平滑概率存在显著差异。值得注意的是,山东在两个系统中的均值μ2 最高,分别为 0.7261*和 0.7261**,而在高增长地区,两个系统之间的相关系数为-0.3543。各省市经济增长与海洋环境保护之间的内在联系存在显著差异。因此,在制定经济和环境政策时,必须针对特定区域制定有针对性的战略。
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Relationship between economic growth and marine ecological environment based on VAR models

This study aims to investigate the inherent correlation between economic growth and marine conservation in the coastal regions of China, specifically the shifting relationship between high and low economic growth periods and marine pollution. A nonlinear model is employed to determine the dynamic relationship based on historical data, with the inclusion of a nonlinear zone system transfer factor to achieve this dynamic relationship. The study's data was sourced from a statistical database of 11 Chinese coastal provinces, containing details on economic growth rates and emissions of industrial waste. In the study, significant differences in the mean, variance and smoothing probability of the different provinces were observed in the different systems. Notably, Shandong recorded the highest mean μ2 in both systems, 0.7261* and 0.7261**, while the correlation coefficient between the two systems in the high growth area was −0.3543. Significant differences exist in the intrinsic links between economic growth and marine environmental protection within provinces and cities. Therefore, targeted strategies must be developed for specific regions when formulating economic and environmental policies.

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来源期刊
Journal of Sea Research
Journal of Sea Research 地学-海洋学
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
5.00%
发文量
86
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Sea Research is an international and multidisciplinary periodical on marine research, with an emphasis on the functioning of marine ecosystems in coastal and shelf seas, including intertidal, estuarine and brackish environments. As several subdisciplines add to this aim, manuscripts are welcome from the fields of marine biology, marine chemistry, marine sedimentology and physical oceanography, provided they add to the understanding of ecosystem processes.
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