连接最大后验估计和后验期望的匹配先验对

Michiko Okudo, Keisuke Yano
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引用次数: 0

摘要

贝叶斯统计有两种常用的后验分布中心倾向度量方法:后验均值和最大后验估计值(MAP)。本文讨论了 MAP 估计和后验均值之间的联系。我们推导了一对先验的渐近条件,在此条件下,基于一个先验的后验均值与基于另一个先验的 MAP 估计值重合。这对先验存在的充分条件与信息几何学中统计模型的$\alpha$平坦性有关。我们还使用$α$-平行先验构建了匹配的先验对。我们的结果阐明了广义线性回归模型中的正则化与后验预期之间的有趣联系。
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Matching prior pairs connecting Maximum A Posteriori estimation and posterior expectation
Bayesian statistics has two common measures of central tendency of a posterior distribution: posterior means and Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimates. In this paper, we discuss a connection between MAP estimates and posterior means. We derive an asymptotic condition for a pair of prior densities under which the posterior mean based on one prior coincides with the MAP estimate based on the other prior. A sufficient condition for the existence of this prior pair relates to $\alpha$-flatness of the statistical model in information geometry. We also construct a matching prior pair using $\alpha$-parallel priors. Our result elucidates an interesting connection between regularization in generalized linear regression models and posterior expectation.
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