{"title":"被动的货币政策能否减轻债务负担?","authors":"Ruoyun Mao , Wenyi Shen , Shu-Chun S. Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104802","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Large expansionary fiscal measures are often implemented with monetary accommodation during an economic crisis. When a government is highly indebted, and the timing of switching to the conventional regime <span><math><mi>M</mi></math></span> (passive fiscal/active monetary policies) is uncertain, a government spending increase in regime <span><math><mi>F</mi></math></span><span> (active fiscal/passive monetary policies) increases government debt. Such regime uncertainty dampens inflation and debt revaluation effects. Also, as regime uncertainty generates a smaller real interest rate decline, debt servicing costs fall less, and tax revenues increase less, than in the fixed regime </span><span><math><mi>F</mi></math></span>. These factors contribute to reversing the debt decline for a spending increase in the fixed regime <span><math><mi>F</mi></math></span><span>. The result holds under adverse supply shocks and potentially higher capital taxes, relevant factors in the post-COVID U.S. economy.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Can passive monetary policy decrease the debt burden?\",\"authors\":\"Ruoyun Mao , Wenyi Shen , Shu-Chun S. Yang\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104802\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Large expansionary fiscal measures are often implemented with monetary accommodation during an economic crisis. When a government is highly indebted, and the timing of switching to the conventional regime <span><math><mi>M</mi></math></span> (passive fiscal/active monetary policies) is uncertain, a government spending increase in regime <span><math><mi>F</mi></math></span><span> (active fiscal/passive monetary policies) increases government debt. Such regime uncertainty dampens inflation and debt revaluation effects. Also, as regime uncertainty generates a smaller real interest rate decline, debt servicing costs fall less, and tax revenues increase less, than in the fixed regime </span><span><math><mi>F</mi></math></span>. These factors contribute to reversing the debt decline for a spending increase in the fixed regime <span><math><mi>F</mi></math></span><span>. The result holds under adverse supply shocks and potentially higher capital taxes, relevant factors in the post-COVID U.S. economy.</span></p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48314,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188923002087\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188923002087","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
在经济危机期间,大规模扩张性财政措施往往与货币宽松政策同时实施。当政府债台高筑,而转换到传统体制 M(被动财政/主动货币政策)的时间不确定时,在体制 F(主动财政/被动货币政策)下增加政府支出会增加政府债务。这种制度的不确定性抑制了通货膨胀和债务重估效应。此外,由于制度的不确定性导致实际利率下降幅度较小,因此与固定制度 F 相比,偿债成本下降幅度较小,税收增加幅度较小。
Can passive monetary policy decrease the debt burden?
Large expansionary fiscal measures are often implemented with monetary accommodation during an economic crisis. When a government is highly indebted, and the timing of switching to the conventional regime (passive fiscal/active monetary policies) is uncertain, a government spending increase in regime (active fiscal/passive monetary policies) increases government debt. Such regime uncertainty dampens inflation and debt revaluation effects. Also, as regime uncertainty generates a smaller real interest rate decline, debt servicing costs fall less, and tax revenues increase less, than in the fixed regime . These factors contribute to reversing the debt decline for a spending increase in the fixed regime . The result holds under adverse supply shocks and potentially higher capital taxes, relevant factors in the post-COVID U.S. economy.
期刊介绍:
The journal provides an outlet for publication of research concerning all theoretical and empirical aspects of economic dynamics and control as well as the development and use of computational methods in economics and finance. Contributions regarding computational methods may include, but are not restricted to, artificial intelligence, databases, decision support systems, genetic algorithms, modelling languages, neural networks, numerical algorithms for optimization, control and equilibria, parallel computing and qualitative reasoning.