Thermophilisation of Afromontane forest stands demonstrated in an elevation gradient experiment

Abstract. The response of tropical trees and tree communities to climate change is crucial for the carbon storage and biodiversity of the terrestrial biosphere. Trees in tropical montane rain forests (TMFs) are considered particularly vulnerable to climate change, but this hypothesis remains poorly evaluated due to data scarcity. To reduce the knowledge gap in the response of TMF trees to warming, we established a field experiment along a 1300–2400 m elevation gradient as a proxy for warming in Rwanda. Seedling-size trees of 20 species native to montane forests in eastern and central Africa were planted in multi-species plots at three sites along the gradient. They have overlapping distributions but primarily occur in either transitional rain forests (∼ 1600–2000 ma.s.l.) or mid-elevation TMFs (∼ 2000–3000 ma.s.l.), with both early- (ES) and late-successional (LS) species represented in each elevation origin group. Tree growth (diameter and height) and survival were monitored regularly over 2 years. We found that ES species, especially from lower elevations, grew faster at warmer sites, while several of the LS species, especially from higher elevations, did not respond or grew slower. Moreover, a warmer climate increased tree mortality in LS species, but not much in ES species. ES species with transitional rain forest origin strongly increased proportional to stand basal area at warmer sites, while TMF species declined, suggesting that lower-elevation ES species will have an advantage over higher-elevation species in a warming climate. The risk of higher-elevation and LS species of becoming outcompeted by lower-elevation and ES species due to a thermophilisation response in a warmer climate has important implications for biodiversity and carbon storage of Afromontane forests.