论一种新的帕累托-威布尔混合分布:其参数回归模型与保险应用

Q1 Decision Sciences Annals of Data Science Pub Date : 2023-12-16 DOI:10.1007/s40745-023-00502-3
Deepesh Bhati, Buddepu Pavan, Girish Aradhye
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文介绍了一种适用于重尾和右斜数据集建模的新概率分布。所提出的分布是由帕累托族的尺度参数与威布尔分布的连续混合物推导出来的。推导出了拟议模型的各种分布属性和精算风险度量的分析表达式。利用两个真实世界的保险数据集评估了所提模型的适用性,并将其性能与现有的重尾模型进行了比较。在参数回归建模中,假设所提出的模型为响应变量,以考虑个体投保人的异质性。该模型采用了期望最大化(EM)算法,以加快为模型参数寻找最大似然估计值的过程。真实世界的数据应用表明,与同类模型相比,建议的分布表现良好。与帕累托-威布尔回归模型相比,利用帕累托-威布尔混合响应分布的回归模型表现出更优越的性能,因为帕累托-威布尔回归模型的离散参数取决于协变量。
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On a New Mixed Pareto–Weibull Distribution: Its Parametric Regression Model with an Insurance Applications

This article introduces a new probability distribution suitable for modeling heavy-tailed and right-skewed data sets. The proposed distribution is derived from the continuous mixture of the scale parameter of the Pareto family with the Weibull distribution. Analytical expressions for various distributional properties and actuarial risk measures of the proposed model are derived. The applicability of the proposed model is assessed using two real-world insurance data sets, and its performance is compared with the existing class of heavy-tailed models. The proposed model is assumed for the response variable in parametric regression modeling to account for the heterogeneity of individual policyholders. The Expectation-Maximization (EM) Algorithm is included to expedite the process of finding maximum likelihood (ML) estimates for the parameters of the proposed models. Real-world data application demonstrates that the proposed distribution performs well compared to its competitor models. The regression model utilizing the mixed Pareto–Weibull response distribution, characterized by regression structures for both the mean and dispersion parameters, demonstrates superior performance when compared to the Pareto–Weibull regression model, where the dispersion parameter depends on covariates.

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来源期刊
Annals of Data Science
Annals of Data Science Decision Sciences-Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
CiteScore
6.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
93
期刊介绍: Annals of Data Science (ADS) publishes cutting-edge research findings, experimental results and case studies of data science. Although Data Science is regarded as an interdisciplinary field of using mathematics, statistics, databases, data mining, high-performance computing, knowledge management and virtualization to discover knowledge from Big Data, it should have its own scientific contents, such as axioms, laws and rules, which are fundamentally important for experts in different fields to explore their own interests from Big Data. ADS encourages contributors to address such challenging problems at this exchange platform. At present, how to discover knowledge from heterogeneous data under Big Data environment needs to be addressed.     ADS is a series of volumes edited by either the editorial office or guest editors. Guest editors will be responsible for call-for-papers and the review process for high-quality contributions in their volumes.
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