选举舞弊会削弱对专制者的支持吗?

IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Comparative Political Studies Pub Date : 2023-12-14 DOI:10.1177/00104140231209959
Laurits F. Aarslew
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引用次数: 0

摘要

选举舞弊会削弱对独裁者的支持吗?俄罗斯在 2020 年就宪法修正案进行投票后开展了一项原创调查实验,揭示了三个重要发现。首先,政权支持者和反对者对选举公平性的基本看法存在显著差异。政权的反对者已经意识到了舞弊现象,而支持者则期待相对公平的选举。因此,只有政权支持者才会在接触到舞弊信息时修正他们的选举信念。其次,舞弊信息的披露会降低政权的合法性信念,但仅限于政权的政治基础。相反,政权的反对者在基准线上就已经认为政权是不合法的了。第三,实验显示对普京态度的影响微乎其微。虽然欺诈行为的揭露导致政权支持者调整了对政权的看法,但他们对普京的看法基本上没有受到影响。研究结果表明,独裁者可以在操纵选举的同时维持其政治基础的民众支持,这就对舞弊破坏政权稳定的可能性提出了质疑。
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Does Election Fraud Erode Support for Autocrats?
Does election fraud erode support for dictators? An original survey experiment from Russia following the 2020 vote on constitutional amendments reveals three key findings. First, regime supporters and opponents differ significantly in their baseline beliefs about election fairness. While regime opponents are already aware of fraud, supporters expect relatively fair elections. Consequently, only regime supporters revise their election beliefs when exposed to fraud information. Second, fraud revelations reduce regime legitimacy beliefs, but only among the regime’s political base. In contrast, regime opponents already perceive the regime as illegitimate at the baseline. Third, the experiment shows minimal, if any, effects on attitudes toward Putin. While fraud revelations cause regime supporters to adjust their views on the regime, their opinions about Putin remain largely unaffected. The findings imply that dictators can maintain popular support among their political base while manipulating elections, posing questions about the potential of fraud to undermine regime stability.
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来源期刊
Comparative Political Studies
Comparative Political Studies POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
8.40
自引率
4.00%
发文量
69
期刊介绍: Comparative Political Studies is a journal of social and political science which publishes scholarly work on comparative politics at both the cross-national and intra-national levels. We are particularly interested in articles which have an innovative theoretical argument and are based on sound and original empirical research. We also encourage submissions about comparative methodology, particularly when methodological arguments are closely linked with substantive issues in the field.
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